Links 9/19/24

Links for you. Science:

Oropouche cases in the Americas near 10,000
In Australia, COVID-19 deaths may have stopped decreasing
More than half of Brazil is racked by drought. Blame deforestation.
Sequencing-Based Detection of Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus in Wastewater in Ten Cities
The Rise of the Science Sleuths
Novavax or Nothing? For Some, It’s Their COVID Vaccine Choice

Other:

Trump’s Repetitive Speech Is a Bad Sign. If the debate was a cognitive test, the former president failed.
News 4 I-Team Exclusive: Brooklyn bar owner alleges ‘shakedown’ over NYPD enforcement (oh my…)
Listen: Republicans Do Not Want Unions to Exist
Trump’s Bedminster club hosted an alleged Nazi sympathizer who stormed the Capitol
‘Trump has the culture’: GOP influencers don’t realize ‘they’re eating the dogs’ TikTok remix is mocking them (original here; mashup here; also see Jamelle Bouie)
Ex-CNNer John Roberts
Eye to Eye. Since 2014’s Gaza War, these two professors—one Palestinian, one Israeli—have been working together. They sat down with us to talk about history, censorship, antisemitism, diasporas, and, most of all, peace.
How the GOP became the party of racist memes against Haitian immigrants. Back in 2016, the alt-right tried to normalize joyful bigotry. It worked.
Donald Trump Talked Honestly About Policy
TRUMP IS NOT REALLY THE LEADER OF HIS OWN DISINFORMATION CULT
Matt Gaetz’s alleged sex scandal is heating up again
Inside Trump’s Spin Room From Hell
Election officials warn widespread problems with USPS could disrupt voting
Haitian families in Ohio under attack as racist claims spread
New York woman at center of Orthodox ‘sex strike’ receives her Jewish divorce
Cybertruck Owner Spends $4,200 On Stainless Steel-Look Wrap To Avoid Headache Of Actual Stainless Steel
America’s stores are winning the war on shoplifting (or it was never an issue in the first place…)
Trump’s racist pet hoax exposes weirdo meme culture to normies
Vance says school shootings are ‘a fact of life.’ That’s cowardice, not leadership.
Biden to announce new efforts to curb gender-based violence
British Writer Pens The Best Description Of Trump I’ve Read
Six House Republicans throw a wrench in Trump plan to block a Harris win
Bipartisan group of lawmakers signs pledge to certify 2024 election results
Will the Second 2024 Debate Fallout Echo the First?
This Can’t Keep Happening To Tua Tagovailoa
The New York Times’ Republicans-only Opinion Feature: A regular New York Times opinion feature includes outside writers — but only conservatives

An Anne Leilehua Lanzilotti moment

The titular album, an exceedingly beautiful one, appears on October 4.

FBI Shuts Down Chinese Botnet

The FBI has shut down a botnet run by Chinese hackers:

The botnet malware infected a number of different types of internet-connected devices around the world, including home routers, cameras, digital video recorders, and NAS drives. Those devices were used to help infiltrate sensitive networks related to universities, government agencies, telecommunications providers, and media organizations…. The botnet was launched in mid-2021, according to the FBI, and infected roughly 260,000 devices as of June 2024.

The operation to dismantle the botnet was coordinated by the FBI, the NSA, and the Cyber National Mission Force (CNMF), according to a press release dated Wednesday. The U.S. Department of Justice received a court order to take control of the botnet infrastructure by sending disabling commands to the malware on infected devices. The hackers tried to counterattack by hitting FBI infrastructure but were “ultimately unsuccessful,” according to the law enforcement agency.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 33.0% YoY

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For August, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 5.8% YoY, but still down 26.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 33.0% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Sept. 14, 2024
Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 33.0% above year-ago levels

For the 45th consecutive week dating to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year over year, and this week continues a string of growth rates in the mid-30% range that started in April. This is a slight decrease from last week’s gain of 33.4%. As we discussed above and below, it’s important to note that much of the increase in inventory is due to listings accumulating on a slow market rather than a surge in new listings.

New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—ticked up by 6.6% from one year ago

As the recent easing of mortgage rates kept encouraging many sellers to return to the market, the year-over-year growth in new listings continued this week. With mortgage rates nearly 1 percentage point lower than last year and the announcement of a rate cut, we expect sellers’ motivation to sell could continue to rise this fall. In addition, as rates are likely to be even lower in 2025, a larger increase in listing activity is expected next spring.
Realtor YoY Active ListingsHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 45th consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Ears rarely open until a rapport is established

It's hard to open cold with a controversial take to a bunch of strangers. And the room is always cold on X or in a one-off blog post. Just like comedy, half the battle of winning over the audience comes from a solid introduction, good timing, and a broad smile to warm the room. You can have great material, but if the vibe is off, good luck landing a laugh.

The stream I did on Monday with ThePrimeagen and TJ DeVries illustrates this to a T. Not only was the stream warm and in a good mood from spending time with ThePrimeagen first (who wouldn't be!), but the pair immediately elevated that spirit further by being such welcoming and gracious hosts. Thereby signaling to their audience that who they were about to hear would be worth listening to with an open mind.

That's the kind of introduction that makes all the difference as to whether someone is willing to grant you the grace of charitable listening -- or whether they'll immediately set their defenses to Max Stranger Skepticism.

I've been making many of my main arguments for years. Some for decades, even. And I know that many in that stream had probably heard some of them before, and dismissed them out of hand, because we hadn't established a rapport that would warrant an open mind. 

That's where writing just can't compete with a podcast or a stream. Putting a face, a voice, and a vibe to the argument absolutely changes its tone, and in turn, the emotions it evokes. And that's what most people go off on. Those emotions.

I sometimes do struggle with that. Thinking that the strength of an argument should be gauged purely by its logic or at least its rhetoric. But I've really come to appreciate the value of set and setting. Of a warm introduction. Of establishing a rapport.

We might not all become friends on the internet, but we needn't be strangers either. And the best way to move on from being strangers is by having others vouch for your earnestness. Thanks for doing that, ThePrimeagen and TJ DeVries ✌️

Exciting economics is often misguided economics

In my latest Bloomberg column, I weigh in on the issues surrounding the latest David Deming piece in The Atlantic.  Here is one excerpt:

…economics is a relatively mature science, and even surprising results are typically consistent with the laws of supply and demand. Innovations tend to be subtle — they could also be described, less generously, as underwhelming — concerning the relative size of effects. So it is hard for radical new ideas to come out of nowhere, and that does lead to some geographic concentration, centered in the highest-reputation schools…

Can economics come up with truly novel remedies or ideas? Probably not. If there is a recession, or say hyperinflation, there is a standard kit of tools involving monetary policy, fiscal policy, deregulation and some other policy changes. Economists can and do argue about the right mix of those policies in a particular case. But there is no “new drug” waiting to be discovered.

And:

As for microeconomics, if there is too much traffic on a highway, congestion pricing usually works. If there isn’t enough housing, deregulating construction or eliminating rent control are worth a try. No brilliant outsider will come along and say, “The way to get more housing is for everyone to drink two shots of vodka,” or some other novel or wild idea.

The point is not that economists have all the answers. It’s that we have a pretty exhaustive list of possible remedies.

And in sum:

The good news is that economists have already achieved a lot. The bad news is that a lot of the remaining work is doomed to be pretty boring and marginal. So one lesson is simply to appreciate the dullness of economics, because exciting economics is often misguided economics.

There is further content at the link.

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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.86 million SAAR in August; Median House Prices Increased 3.1% Year-over-Year

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.86 million SAAR in August

Excerpt:
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Existing Home Sales Year-over-yearSales declined 4.2% year-over-year compared to August 2023. This was the thirty-sixth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.86 million SAAR in August

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Declined 2.5% in August
In August 2024, existing-home sales fell in the South, West, and Northeast, while the Midwest registered no change. Year-over-year, sales slipped in three regions but remained stable in the Northeast.
emphasis added
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in August (3.86 million SAAR) were down 2.5% from the previous month and were 4.2% below the August 2023 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.35 million in August from 1.34 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was up 22.7% year-over-year (blue) in August compared to August 2023.

Months of supply (red) increased to 4.2 months in August from 4.1 months the previous month.

The sales rate was at the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

JD Vance Meet JD Vance

One of the things about being an online shitposter is there’s a record of what you once thought (boldface mine):

A week after President Barack Obama won reelection in November 2012, JD Vance, then a law student at Yale, wrote a scathing rebuke of the Republican Party’s stance on migrants and minorities, criticizing it for being “openly hostile to non-whites” and for alienating “Blacks, Latinos, [and] the youth.”

Four years later, as Vance considered a career in GOP politics, he asked a former college professor to delete the article. That professor, Brad Nelson, taught Vance at Ohio State University while Vance was an undergraduate student. After Vance graduated, Nelson asked him to contribute to a blog he ran for the non-partisan Center for World Conflict and Peace…

A significant part of Republican immigration policy centers on the possibility of deporting 12 million people (or ‘self-deporting’ them),” Vance wrote. “Think about it: we conservatives (rightly) mistrust the government to efficiently administer business loans and regulate our food supply, yet we allegedly believe that it can deport millions of unregistered aliens. The notion fails to pass the laugh test. The same can be said for too much of the party’s platform.”

… “When the 2008 election was called for Obama, I remember thinking: maybe this will teach my party some very important lessons,” Vance wrote. “You can’t nominate people, like Sarah Palin, who scare away swing voters. You can’t actively alienate every growing bloc of the American electorate—Blacks, Latinos, the youth—and you can’t depend solely on the single shrinking bloc of the electorate—Whites. And yet, four years later, I am again forced to reflect on a party that nominated the worst kind of people, like Richard Mourdock, and tried to win an election by appealing only to White people.”

…In the article he asked Nelson to delete, Vance argued the Republican Party would have problems if it did not adjust for the country’s changing demographics. He criticized the GOP’s adherence to supply-side economics, comparing it to supporting outdated policies like Soviet containment. He said during the Bush years this economic approach led to wage stagnation and concentrated growth, which alienated minority voters who found Democratic policies more relevant and appealing.

Republicans lose minority voters for simple and obvious reasons: their policy proposals are tired, unoriginal, or openly hostile to non-whites,” Vance wrote.

I guess Vance grew up and learned some things, such as you can win an election with just White people, if you disenfranchize enough of the non-White people. Also, tax cuts über alles is good now, I guess?

Links 9/18/24

Links for you. Science:

US confirms first human bird flu case with no known animal exposure
Newly Discovered Antibody Protects Against All COVID-19 Variants
First case of bird flu not directly linked to sick animals is found in Missouri
GPT-fabricated scientific papers on Google Scholar: Key features, spread, and implications for preempting evidence manipulation
U.S. prepares for possible arrival of more severe strain of mpox
Pour one out for the modular NIH grant proposal

Other:

New rules from GOP-majority election board could cause disarray in battleground Georgia
After Debate, Trump Refuses To Apologize To ‘Exonerated Five’ Member, Delusionally Thanks Him For His Support
Trump Supporters Spread Ridiculous Conspiracy Theory Kamala Harris Wore Audio-Enabled Earrings at Debate
Marc this: Montgomery County needs more homes, actually (Marc Erlich is worse than Bowser, and that’s saying something)
From Kamala Harris, a master class on how to take down a bully
Republicans threaten a government shutdown unless Congress makes it harder to vote
Trump Media shares plunge premarket after GOP nominee’s debate with Harris
Trump’s Awful Arlington Scandal Takes Its Most Disturbing Turn Yet
Eating Pets and Other Lies: How the Haitian Migrant Hoax Exposes Flaws in Political Reporting
Bonfire
Fact-checking the wave of online misinformation targeted at Latinos
DDOT rolling out new streateries pilot program for Adams Morgan bars and restaurants
The improbable voyage of Starship Titanic, the 1998 Douglas Adams video game filled with ‘unhinged’ chatbots
Debate Suggests Men May Be Too Emotional To Be President. Trump was highly emotional on the debate stage. Female candidates rarely have that luxury.
Vance, Yost targeting Haitians in Springfield, Ohio with ignorant fear-mongering disturbs me deeply
Gullible Mr. Trump: The former president will believe anything—even wild rumors about immigrants killing and eating pets—as long as it’s cruel, politically expedient, and on TV.
Donald Trump no longer knows how to talk to anyone outside his base
Former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales Will Support Kamala Harris. He views Trump’s reelection as a threat to the rule of law.
Mask bans are dumb, dangerous
Taylor Swift endorses — and searches for voter registration jump
Is the Entire World Conspiring to Make It Look Like Trump Lost the Debate? An intriguing theory by Matt Taibbi.
The right-wing bubble says Trump will save your cat from immigrants
Trump’s Handlers Attempt to Retcon His Fascist Attack on Haitian Migrants
Iran turns to Hells Angels and other criminal gangs to target critics
We need more (and better) parties: Why a healthy democracy depends on healthy political parties, not nonpartisan elections. Or, why doubling down on the failed median voter theory (and all it entails) is pure idiocy.
Taylor Swift’s “Childless Cat Lady” endorsement of Kamala Harris exposes what MAGA men fear most

Thursday assorted links

1. “At the end of this podcast, @tylercowen  jumps in to tell me and @patrickc why we’re both wrong.”  Sounds like me, noting that most of the podcast is not me.

2. The new Jordan Peterson educational venture.

3. Are you feeling lonely?

4. Korea is running a trade deficit in kimchi.

5. Luca responds to me on urbanism and mobility.

6. Walking the Faroe Islands.

7. New open access book on Spanish economic history.  And the older one on Spanish economic growth.

8. New whale bioacoustics model.

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Protests, Entry Denial, Early Exits and Political Ties at Trump’s Uniondale Rally

Trump’s Rally Drew Criticism From Haitian Locals; Thousands Denied Entry, Dozens Seen Leaving Early, Political Ties to Coliseum Owners

NASSAU COUNTY, N.Y. — Last night, former President Donald Trump held his first rally since the recent West Palm Beach assassination attempt at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Uniondale, New York, which was ultimately filled to capacity.

Thousands gathered to watch the GOP nominee proclaim his love for Long Island and the state of New York — which he says he believes could be switched from red to blue — while sharing his plans for a closed border, mass deportation and much more.

While DCReport was unable to gain entry into the event despite waiting for many hours, we dug for some stories through our on the ground reporting, which consisted of interviewing locals, examining the permitter and conducting research.

Haitian Locals Protest Against Trump

A couple hundred local Haitian residents took to the front entrance of the coliseum to protest Trump’s recent rhetoric which they believe is anti-immigrant, and anti-Haitian, per his quote in the last presidential debate with Vice President Kamala Harris.

”In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs,” Trump said. “The people that came in, they’re eating the cats, they’re eating…they’re eating the pets of the people that live there…”

“We are here to protest against Trump, against false accusations toward Haitian immigrants in this country. We do not eat cats, we do not eat dogs,” said Eve Fils, a nurse hailing from Queens. “We will work hard to vote blue against him.”

We will work hard to vote blue against him.

Fils noted that she came from Haiti to the United States and fell in love with democracy, but feels that other voters do not share the same concern as she does regarding Trump’s controversial past.

“Coming here from Haiti, where we don’t have democracy, when I came here, I fell in love, and I still fall in love with this country, with the system,” she said. “And for Trump to go against the system for the first time in the history of this country — we cannot have peaceful transfer of power because of his ego — that hurt me a lot. It’s painful when I see American people not concerned about that.”

Eve Fils. DCReport/Jack Walsh

Another protestor, Anne Marie, a retired nurse who lives in Uniondale, just near Hofstra University, believes Trump’s recent statements make him unfit. She too is upset by the “cats and dogs” statement, and has been in the U.S. since 1978.

“Trump is not fit to be president of the United States because the United States is a superpower country who can help all other countries to do better. So Trump is not fit. He’s not educated enough. His grandparents used to be in Haiti. So he should remember that.”

Anne Marie
Anne Marie. DCReport/Jack Walsh

Thousands Denied Entry, Dozens Left Early

Coliseum doors opened at 3 p.m., with many supporters arriving just shortly after 8 a.m., according to CBS News New York. Additionally, the arena was filled to its 16,000 capacity, with thousands getting rejected the opportunity to see Trump’s display, after waiting in the parking lot for, in some cases, hours on end — including DCReport.

However, not too long after Trump took the stage, DCReport caught dozens of supporters leaving the stadium, from what a handful of bystanders described as a bad echo, making it difficult to hear any of what Trump was saying. A couple of other rally goers denied questions upon their exits.

Notably, various X accounts are showcasing an empty rally toward the end of former President Trump’s speech, with some expressing that there was indeed a packed house at one point and time.

Las Vegas Sands in Control of the Coliseum and Tied to Trump; Mega Donors

Las Vegas Sands is now in control of the Nassau Coliseum, a company owned by the Adelson family. Sheldon Adelson, the former founder and CEO, died in 2021, but was Trump’s largest donor in both his 2016 and 2020 campaign’s. Essentially, it remains a significant possibility that Trump’s political connection to the family may have led him to hold his rally at this specific location, or perhaps come to Long Island in general, as he trails Harris largely in many New York presidential polls.

The Nassau Coliseum
The Nassau Coliseum yesterday evening. DCReport/Jack Walsh

Notably, former President Trump said that the Presidential Medal of Freedom, which he gave to Dr. Miriam Adelson, the widow of Sheldon, was “equivalent” and “much better” than the Medal of Honor, drawing stark criticism in comparing the two. The Presidential Medal of Freedom is given to civilians for successful public service among numerous other reasons, while the Medal of Honor is the highest combat military decoration.

In July, The Nassau County Legislature Rules Committee “voted to approve a 42-year lease on the Nassau Coliseum, and surrounding property known as the Hub, for the Las Vegas Sands Corporation,” which is the former home arena of the New York Islanders, according to Long Island Press.

The idea: to build a casino on the same property of the coliseum, which former Islanders team owner Charles Wang attempted to create with The Lighthouse Project, but residents vetoed in August, 2011.

“The Lighthouse Project would have upgraded the arena and built hotels, restaurants, shops, and more around it, which is what Islanders owner Scott Malkin is in the midst of building at UBS Arena,” The Hockey News explained.

Moving ahead, ABC 7 New York confirmed on August 7 “The Las Vegas Sands is now set to take control of the Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale. There are still obstacles to clear before the launch of the casino can get underway, including getting approved for a gaming license from New York state.”

The plan has received large criticism from many local residents, who do not want a casino in sight on the path to get to Hofstra University just nearby.

”The ‘Say No to the Casino Civic Association’ said the 18-1 approval vote was ‘shameful’ and described the Sands as a predatory gambling company,” ABC 7 explained.

“This lease is a dangerous example of the power of money in politics and the pay to play system at work in Nassau County,” the Say No to the Casino Civic Association stated in a press release. “Today, it exposes the depth to which predatory casino companies have infiltrated the halls of government and co-opted the rules of the process.”


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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 219,000

The DOL reported:
In the week ending September 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 230,000 to 231,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 230,750 to 231,000.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 230,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

Getting more transplants,, two recent articles

 Frank McCormick, and Martha Gershon point me to two articles about increasing kidney transplants.

The first one is by Dylan Matthews in Vox Future Perfect. Here are its first paragraphs and last sentence (the middle is well worth reading too if you're new to this debate..)

The moral case for paying kidney donors.
Kidney donors save lives. Why aren’t we compensated for it?

"A few months ago, I wrote about a proposal called the End Kidney Deaths Act, which seeks to make sure that every one of the more than 135,000 Americans who get diagnosed with kidney failure every year has access to a kidney transplant.

"Its method is simple: a federal tax credit worth $10,000 a year for five years, paid to anyone who donates a kidney to a stranger. It’s the kind of thing that would’ve helped a lot when I donated a kidney back in 2016. Elaine Perlman, a fellow kidney donor who leads the Coalition to Modify NOTA, which is advocating for the act, estimates the measure will save 100,000 lives over the first decade it’s enacted, based on conversations with transplant centers on how many surgeries they can perform with their current resources. Polling has shown this kind of measure has overwhelming public support, with at least 64 percent of Americans supporting a system where a government agency compensates donors.

...

"Not enough nurses? Pay nurses more. Not enough waiters? Pay your waiters more. Not enough kidney donors? Here’s a crazy idea: Pay us."

##########

And here's an article in Healthcare Brew, by Caroline Catherman:

From pigs to payouts, weighing solutions for the US kidney shortage.  About one out of every 20 people waiting for a kidney transplant die each year, according to the United Network for Organ Sharing. Scientists, policymakers, and other experts are scrambling to find a solution.

It also talks about the End Kidney Deaths Act, and pig kidneys and more effective deceased donation as well.

New New


What the history of money tells you about crypto’s future

The thread from shipwrecks and sheep flocks to digital currencies

Dumpster archeology

A person at night placing an object in a large bin labelled ‘TRASH ONLY’ on an empty street lit by streetlights.

Follow the ‘dumpster archeologist’ Lew Blink as he pieces together people’s stories from the objects they’ve left behind

- by Aeon Video

Watch at Aeon

The value of our values

Photo of an ancient male statue with a cloth draped over his shoulder and arm, three people are sitting on a bench to the side of the statue

When Nietzsche used the tools of philology to explore the nature of morality, he became a ‘philosopher of the future’

- by Alexander Prescott-Couch

Read at Aeon

The world’s poorest countries have experienced a brutal decade

Why has development ground to a halt?

European regulators are about to become more political

That will worry many in Silicon Valley

The dark vision of America

I’m sorry, I know I already wrote about this last week. But I just can’t let this one go. If I’m repeating myself, I apologize, but this is very important.

It’s easy to let the latest outrage slip by as the news cycle turns. Just two weeks ago, Tucker Carlson glowingly recommended a Hitler apologist. Just one week ago, a company that sponsors a bunch of major right-wing podcasters was indicted for working for the Russian government. In past eras these might have been scandals that consumed the nation for months; now they don’t even last one week.

And yet the “Haitians eating pets” thing seems to be sticking around for a bit. I find myself coming back to it again and again — not just because it’s such a moral outrage, but because it so starkly illustrates the divergence between the vision of America espoused by the Trump movement and the vision I was raised to believe in. Like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s one of those rare moments of complete moral clarity. Yet even something this obvious still needs to be articulated.

For those who don’t already know, the story goes like this. Just before the presidential debate on September 10, Trump’s vice presidential candidate JD Vance began to amplify rumors that Haitian immigrants were abducting and eating pets in the small Ohio city of Springfield. Trump picked up this rumor and claimed it as fact on the debate stage, declaring:

What they have done to our country by allowing these millions and millions of people to come into our country. And look at what's happening to the towns all over the United States. And a lot of towns don't want to talk — not going to be Aurora or Springfield. A lot of towns don't want to talk about it because they're so embarrassed by it. In Springfield, they're eating the dogs. The people that came in. They're eating the cats. They're eating — they're eating the pets of the people that live there. And this is what's happening in our country.

After the debate, both Trump and Vance doubled down on the claim that the Haitian immigrants of Springfield were abducting and eating pets. But the story had already begun to fall apart.

The “Haitians eating pets” story was completely and utterly fake

I’m not throwing around the word “fake” lightly here. What I mean is that the story about Haitians eating pets was a combination of deliberate fabrication and completely baseless stereotype-driven panic. Vance, in particular, appears to have deliberately amplified rumors that he knew were very likely false.

When journalists started asking police and local government officials in Springfield about the pet-eating rumors, they found no such incidents. JD Vance, pressed to back up his claims, cited a police report by a woman who claimed that her cat had mysteriously vanished and might have been abducted by her Haitian neighbors. The cat was found in the basement shortly thereafter:

A Vance spokesperson on Tuesday provided The Wall Street Journal with a police report in which a resident had claimed her pet might have been taken by Haitian neighbors. But when a reporter went to Anna Kilgore’s house Tuesday evening, she said her cat Miss Sassy, which went missing in late August, had actually returned a few days later—found safe in her own basement. 

Kilgore, wearing a Trump shirt and hat, said she apologized to her Haitian neighbors with the help of her daughter and a mobile-phone translation app.

Another Springfield woman, who had posted rumors about pet-eating Haitians to a Facebook group, later apologized and admitted that she had no evidence:

The woman behind an early Facebook post spreading a…claim about Haitian immigrants eating local pets…says she had no firsthand knowledge of any such incident and is now filled with regret and fear as a result of the ensuing fallout.

“It just exploded into something I didn’t mean to happen,” Erika Lee, a Springfield resident, told NBC News on Friday.

Desperate to find any sort of substance to back up the pet-eating claim, online rightists posted an image of a black man walking down the street holding two dead geese. It turned out that the man — who isn’t Haitian and lives in Columbus — was just moving roadkill off of the road. Chris Rufo, the right-wing activist, offered $5000 for any proof of Haitians eating pets, and came up with a blurry video of African immigrants in Dayton, Ohio grilling carcasses of unknown origin. Independent right-wing journalists swarmed the area, looking for evidence of pet-eating, and found nothing.

Some onlookers also pointed out that the sudden hysteria about Haitians in Ohio was extremely suspicious, since the vast majority of Haitian immigrants in the U.S. live in Florida or the East Coast:

The pet-eating story, in other words, was fake. And there are indications that JD Vance, at least, knew that it was fake. The Wall Street Journal reports that Vance kept repeating the accusation long after his staffers had been told that there was no evidence of pet-eating:

[Springfield] City Manager Bryan Heck fielded an unusual question at City Hall on the morning of Sept. 9, from a staff member of Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance. The staffer called to ask if there was any truth to bizarre rumors about Haitian immigrants and pets in Springfield.

“He asked point-blank, ‘Are the rumors true of pets being taken and eaten?’” recalled Heck. “I told him no. There was no verifiable evidence or reports to show this was true. I told them these claims were baseless.” 

By then, Vance had already posted about the rumors to his 1.9 million followers on X. Yet he kept the post up, and repeated an even more insistent version of the claim the next morning.

And in an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash, Vance indicated that he knew he was amplifying unsubstantiated rumors for political purposes, saying “If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do.”

It’s not clear whether Vance was admitting to having deliberately fabricated a story. But he has made it clear that he’s sometimes willing to speak falsehoods in order to make a political point. When a reporter pointed out that most of the Haitians in Springfield are in the country legally, under a Congressionally approved program called Temporary Protected Status, Vance declared: “I’m still going to call them an illegal alien.”

In fact, the pet-eating accusation might not turn out to be the only piece of the Trump campaign’s story that doesn’t fit the facts. Trump supporters constantly claim that 20,000 Haitians have recently come to Springfield. But the city of Springfield estimates that there are only 12,000 to 15,000 total immigrants of all nationalities in the entire county. The 20,000 number isn’t just exaggerated in size — it also conflates recent arrivals with immigrants who have been there a long time, and it labels immigrants of all nationalities as Haitians.

In fact, when people started digging into the data, they realized that the number of Haitians in Springfield is much, much smaller than popularly claimed. Census Data shows a decrease in the county’s black population since 2019, an increase in the “West Indian” population of only about 1100, and an increase in the total foreign-born population of only about 2200. School enrollment is flat, the number of people receiving welfare benefits is flat, employment has barely risen, and so on. Using Medicaid data and data on enrollment in ESL classes, David Jarman estimates a total immigrant population of about 10,000 in the country. But Kevin Drum argues that many of these are not Haitians, and comes up with an estimate of about 4,000.

And other anti-immigrant claims have turned out to be baseless as well:

Vance has also added to his claims about Haitians, saying on social media that communicable diseases have been on the rise in Springfield because of the Haitian migration…Information from the county health department, however, shows a decrease in infectious disease cases countywide, with 1,370 reported in 2023—the lowest since 2015.

In other words, the whole framing and background narrative of the Haitian immigrant panic looks wrong.

It’s highly likely that Trump, Vance, and many of their most prominent supporters know they have these particular facts wrong. And yet because they’re angry about immigration in general, and because they see it as a winning electoral issue, they’re willing to throw a whole bunch of accusations at the wall and see what sticks.

It’s difficult to express how immoral this feels. Throwing around talking points and dubious data is one thing. But if you’re leveling baseless accusations against specific innocent people in order to make a broader political point, you’re hurting those people for your own political gain. There is simply no situation in which I find that morally acceptable.

But the singling out and persecution of undesirable groups for political gain fits perfectly with Trump’s vision of what a nation ought to be.

A battle between two visions of America

Make no mistake: The Haitians of Springfield have been harmed by the baseless calumnies the Trump campaign has leveled against them. So have their non-Haitian neighbors. The Wall Street Journal reports that the town has been under siege since Trump blasted his baseless rumors to the world:

The Ohio state police were called in to protect local children as they returned to school. A security tower with cameras was erected outside City Hall. Thirty-six bomb threats had been logged [in Springfield] as of Tuesday evening.

“It induces panic and fear and depletes resources,” said Heck, the city manager. “We’re living the danger that misinformation and created stories leads to.”…

The morning after the debate, parents in Springfield kept their children home en masse. Several schools, City Hall and the state motor vehicle offices in Springfield were forced to evacuate after receiving bomb threats. The city canceled its two-day CultureFest celebrating diversity, arts and culture “in light of recent threats and safety concerns.”

[Neo-Nazi group] Blood Tribe took a victory lap for its presence in the town, boasting on Sept. 11, “We are on the ground in Springfield weekly—we even showed up to their City Council Meeting.” 

Health care facilities and city hall were also evacuated due to bomb threats. Most or all of those threats are believed to have come from out of town — or out of the country.1

Imagine that you’re a Haitian guy living in Springfield. You fled one of the world’s most dangerous and violent countries for the chance at a good life in the United States. You came legally, through a program established by Congress. You go to work at the steel factory, and you show up on time and you do your work and you don’t do drugs. On Sunday you go to church. You’re making it in America. You’re following all the rules, and you’re doing right by your country and your family.

Then one day America’s presidential front-runner says that you’re abducting and eating people’s pets. Suddenly your daughter is getting evacuated from school day after day because of bomb threats. You wonder if your neighbors believe Trump’s lies. People ask your daughter what cat tastes like.

What did you do to deserve any of that? Nothing. Nothing except be born to a group of people that Trump and his supporters think doesn’t deserve to be part of America. Nothing except have the bad luck to be in the line of fire when Trump thought he could win votes by stirring up hatred and fear. There’s nothing you could have possibly done to avoid it — you did everything right, and they still came after you.

That is not the America you were promised. And it’s not the America I was promised, when I grew up hearing Ronald Reagan say things like:

[A]nyone, from any corner of the Earth, can come to live in America and become an American…This, I believe, is one of the most important sources of America's greatness. We lead the world because, unique among nations, we draw our people—our strength-from every country and every corner of the world. And by doing so we continuously renew and enrich our nation. While other countries cling to the stale past, here in America we breathe life into dreams. We create the future, and the world follows us into tomorrow. Thanks to each wave of new arrivals to this land of opportunity, we're a nation forever young, forever bursting with energy and new ideas, and always on the cutting edge, always leading the world to the next frontier. This quality is vital to our future as a nation. If we ever closed the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world would soon be lost.

And yes, Reagan included Haitians in that list. This is from his Republican convention acceptance speech in 1980:

Can we doubt that only a Divine Providence placed this land, this island of freedom, here as a refuge for all those people in the world who yearn to breathe free? Jews and Christians enduring persecution behind the Iron Curtain; the boat people of Southeast Asia, Cuba, and of Haiti; the victims of drought and famine in Africa, the freedom fighters of Afghanistan, and our own countrymen held in savage captivity.

That America is not gone. In fact, it rose up to defend the Haitian community of Springfield after Trump’s attacks. Springfield residents have reportedly flooded into Haitian-owned restaurants in a show of support. A Springfield church sent flyers to Haitians reading “I’m glad you’re here. Jesus loves you and so do I.” There was a peaceful protest in support of the Haitian community. Mike DeWine, Ohio’s Republican governor, denounced Trump’s baseless rumors as “garbage” and condemned the neo-Nazi groups that have come to march in the town.

Although 52% of Trump supporters said they either “definitely” or “probably believed Trump’s accusations of pet-eating, the majority of Americans, including a majority of political Independents, said the accusation was false.

Yet this is not an overwhelming majority. The Trumpian vision of America is a powerful alternative to Reagan’s vision. Trump and his supporters see a nation as defined not by ideals, but by ethnocultural inheritance. Immigration, to them, is not an affirmation of America — it’s an invasion, a pollution of the national bloodstream, an attempted theft of the country from its rightful owners. It’s an alternative idea that has been in America since its founding, but has only rarely gained political power.

It could definitely gain power this time, though. Thanks to Biden’s neglect of the border crisis for the first three years of his presidency, American opinion swung from a pro-immigration stance in 2020 to an anti-immigration stance in 2024. Biden belatedly acted to shut down the border by barring most asylum claims, and illegal border crossings have plummeted as a result. But this turnabout came too late, and now an enraged country is in danger of embracing Trumpian ethnonationalism as its only alternative

Perhaps Trump’s attack on the Haitians of Springfield will change that dynamic. Americans may despise illegal immigration, but they continue to think well of immigration overall:

Source: Gallup

By singling out the Haitians of Springfield for attack, Trump may have given immigration a human face again — replaced the mental image of an army of faceless invaders storming across the border with the image of a hard-working minority trying to fit in and make it in America. This may have been a tactical error. Trump and Vance might have been too confident that their blood-and-soil vision of America was finally in the ascendance — that in Haitians, they had finally found a group of people that the nation would categorically reject as unworthy and unacceptable. Instead, they may simply end up reminding Americans of Reagan’s vision, and of their own immigrant roots.

I don’t think it’s settled yet. The election is still a tossup, and anger about the border is still at a fever pitch. Canada and many European countries are moving toward greater immigration restriction. Even if Harris wins, she’s likely to keep Biden’s strict border measures in place. Every country has its limit when it comes to uncontrolled immigration, and America has reached the end of its tolerance in that regard.

But Trump’s lies about the Haitians of Springfield have given America a glimpse of the dark vision that lies beneath the populist anger. Americans now know that Trumpism doesn’t just mean a secure border — it means a country where people can be persecuted purely for their membership in an undesirable group. Some Americans do want that. If you want that, vote for Trump. But it’s not a vision of the country we grew up in, and it’s a not a vision that leads anywhere good.


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1

The right-wing activist Chris Rufo reached out to the office of Ohio governor Mike DeWine, and was told that most of the bomb threats had come from outside the country, from “one particular nation”. That nation is pretty obviously Russia, which has relentlessly attacked the Harris campaign with various fake videos and online influence operations, as well as supporting various right-wing podcasters. It’s kind of amazing that Rufo views the fact that Trump’s attacks call down waves of Russian threats as a defense of Trump.

★ The iPhones 16

One of the many memorable moments in Steve Jobs’s 2007 introduction of the original iPhone was this slide showing four of the then-leading smartphones on the market. Jobs explained:

Now, why do we need a revolutionary user interface? Here’s four smartphones, right? Motorola Q, the BlackBerry, Palm Treo, Nokia E62 — the usual suspects. And, what’s wrong with their user interfaces? Well, the problem with them is really sort of in the bottom 40 there. It’s this stuff right there. They all have these keyboards that are there whether or not you need them to be there. And they all have these control buttons that are fixed in plastic and are the same for every application. Well, every application wants a slightly different user interface, a slightly optimized set of buttons, just for it.

And what happens if you think of a great idea six months from now? You can’t run around and add a button to these things. They’re already shipped. So what do you do? It doesn’t work because the buttons and the controls can’t change. They can’t change for each application, and they can’t change down the road if you think of another great idea you want to add to this product.

Well, how do you solve this? Hmm. It turns out, we have solved it. We solved it in computers 20 years ago. We solved it with a bitmapped screen that could display anything we want. Put any user interface up. And a pointing device. We solved it with the mouse. We solved this problem. So how are we going to take this to a mobile device? What we’re going to do is get rid of all these buttons and just make a giant screen. A giant screen.

At the time, what seemed most radical was eschewing a hardware QWERTY keyboard and instead implementing a touchscreen keyboard in software. Steve Ballmer, then CEO of Microsoft, in the infamous clip in which he laughed uproariously after being asked for his reaction to seeing the iPhone: “500 dollars? Fully subsidized, with a plan? I said, that is the most expensive phone in the world, and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good email machine.”

Apple didn’t get rid of all the buttons, of course. But the buttons they kept were all for the system, the device, not for any specific application: power, volume, a mute switch (that, oddly, was copied by almost no competitors), and the lone button on the front face: Home.1 That’s it.

When Apple’s competitors stopped laughing at the iPhone and started copying it, they got rid of their hardware keyboards — theretofore the primary signifier differentiating a “smartphone” from a regular phone — but they couldn’t bring themselves to eliminate the not one but two dedicated hardware buttons that, to their unimaginative minds, were inherent to making any cell phone a phone: the green “call” and red “hang up” buttons. Android phones had those red/green buttons. The BlackBerry Storm had them too. Every phone but the iPhone had them. Until they caught up and realized those buttons were obviated too.

The thinking might have been rooted in the very name of the devices. Of course all phones — dumb phones, BlackBerry-style hardware-keyboard phones, iPhone-style touchscreen phones — ought to have phone buttons. I suspect they pondered very deeply how Apple was bold enough to eschew a hardware keyboard for an all-touchscreen design, but that they thought Apple was just taking minimalism to its extreme by eschewing green/red hardware call buttons. No matter how many other things they do, they’re phones first — it’s right there in their name!

But the iPhone has never really been fundamentally a telephone. On the iPhone, the Phone was always just another app. A special app, no question. Default placement in the Dock at the bottom of the Home Screen. Special background privileges within an otherwise highly constrained OS where most apps effectively quit when you’d go back to the Home Screen. Incoming phone calls instantly took over the entire screen. Jobs spent a lot of time in that introduction demonstrating the Phone app — including Visual Voicemail, a genuine breakthrough feature that required AT&T/Cingular’s cooperation on the back end.2

But, still, the Phone part of iPhone was then and remains now just an app. If you compared an iPhone to an iPod Touch, there was nothing on the iPhone hardware that indicated it was any more of a phone than the iPod Touch, which not only wasn’t a phone but didn’t even offer cellular networking. No buttons, for sure. No stick-out antenna. No carrier logo on the device. Look at a modern iPhone and there’s really only one function whose purpose is clearly visible from a conspicuous hardware protrusion: the camera lenses. Five years ago, in the lede of my review of the iPhones 11, I wrote, “A few weeks ago on my podcast, speculating on the tentpole features for this year’s new iPhones, I said that ‘iCamera’ would be a far more apt name than ‘iPhone’.”

What more proof of the camera’s singular importance to the iPhone would one need than the ever-growing block of camera lenses on the back of each year’s new models, or the “Shot on iPhone” ad campaign — the longest-running (and still ongoing) campaign in Apple’s history? A dedicated hardware button?

Camera Control

The facile take is that Apple has run out of hardware ideas and now just adds a new button to the iPhone each year — Action button last year, Camera Control this year, maybe they’ll finally add those green/red phone call buttons next year. But that’s underestimating just how radical it is for Apple, in the iPhone’s 18th annual hardware iteration, to add a hardware button dedicated to a single application.

And I mean application there in the general sense, not just the app sense. By default, of course, pressing Camera Control launches the iOS Camera app,3 but while setting up any new iPhone 16, Apple’s own onboarding screen describes its purpose as launching “a camera app”, with a lowercase c. Any third-party app that adopts new APIs and guidelines can serve as the camera app that gets launched (and, once launched, controlled) by Camera Control. (I’ll default to writing about using the system Camera app, though.)

Apple seemingly doesn’t ever refer to Camera Control as a “button”, but it is a button. You can see it depress, and it clicks even when the device is powered off (unlike, say, the haptic Touch ID Home button on iPhones of yore and the long-in-the-tooth iPhone SE). But it isn’t only a button. You can think of it as two physical controls in one: a miniature haptic trackpad and an actually-clicking button.

When the Camera app is not already in shoot mode (whether your iPhone is on the Lock Screen or if another app is active — or even if you’re doing something else inside the Camera app other than shooting, like, say, reviewing existing photos):

  • A full click of the Camera Control button launches the Camera app and puts you in shoot mode.
  • A light press triggers nothing, nor offers any haptic feedback. Light pressing only does something when you’re in the Camera app ready to shoot.

When the Camera app is active and ready to shoot:

  • A full click of the Camera Control button takes a photo or starts a video, depending on your current mode. (If you’re in still-photo mode, clicking-and-holding Camera Control will start a video, just like pressing-and-holding the on-screen shutter button.)
  • A light press on Camera Control opens an overlay that allows you to adjust the current settings mode by sliding your finger left to ride, trackpad-style.
  • A double light press on Camera Control changes the overlay to adjust which settings to adjust. The options are: Exposure, Depth (ƒ-stop), Zoom, Cameras, Style, Tone.

Just writing that all out makes it sound complicated, and it is a bit complex. (Here’s Apple’s own illustrated guide to using Camera Control.) Cameras are complex. But if you just mash it down, it takes a picture. Camera Control is like a microcosm of the Camera app itself. Just want to point and shoot? Easy. Want to fiddle with ƒ-stops and styles? There’s a thoughtful UI to enable it. In the early years of iPhone, Apple’s Camera app was truly point-and-shoot simplistic. The shooting interface had just a few buttons: a shutter, a photo/video toggle, a control for the flash, and a toggle for switching to the front-facing camera. The original iPhone and iPhone 3G didn’t even support video, and the front-facing camera didn’t arrive until the iPhone 4. Those old iPhones had simple camera hardware, and the app reflected that simplicity.

Apple’s modern camera hardware has become remarkably sophisticated, and the Camera app has too. But if you just want to shoot what you see in the viewfinder, it’s as simple as ever. Pinch to zoom, tap to focus, press the shutter button to shoot. But so many other controls and options are there, readily available and intelligently presented for those who want them, easily ignored by those who don’t. Apple’s Camera app is one of the best — and best-designed — pieces of software the world has ever seen. It’s arguably the most-copied interface the world has ever seen, too. You’d be hard-pressed to find a single premium Android phone whose built-in camera app doesn’t look like Apple’s, usually right down to the yellow accent color for text labels.

After over a week using several iPhone 16 review units, my summary of Camera Control is that it takes a while to get used to — I feel like I’m still getting used to it — but it already feels like something I wouldn’t want to do without. It’s a great idea, and a bold one. As I emphasized above, only in the 18th hardware revision has Apple added a hardware control dedicated to a single application. I don’t expect Apple to do it again. I do expect Apple’s rivals to copy Camera Control shamelessly.

At first, though, I was frustrated by the physical placement of Camera Control. As a hobbyist photographer who has been shooting with dedicated cameras all the way back to the late 1990s, my right index finger expects a shutter button to be located near the top right corner. But the center of Camera Control is 2 inches (5 cm) from the corner. I’ll never stop wishing for it to be closer to the corner, but after a week I’ve grown acclimated to its actual placement. And I get it. I’m old enough that I shoot all of my videos and most of my photos in widescreen orientation. But social media today is dominated by tallscreen video. As Apple’s Piyush Pratik explained during last week’s keynote, Camera Control is designed to be used in both wide (landscape) and tall (portrait) orientations. Moving it more toward the corner, where my finger wants it to be, would make it better for shooting widescreen, but would make it downright precarious to hold the iPhone while shooting tall. I hate to admit it but I think Apple got the placement right. Shooting tallscreen is just way too popular. And, after just a week, my index finger is getting more and more accustomed to its placement. It might prove to be a bit of a reach for people with small hands, though.

I’ve also been a bit frustrated by using Camera Control to launch Camera while my iPhone is locked. With the default settings, when your iPhone is unlocked, or locked but with the screen awake, a single click of Camera Control takes you right to shooting mode in the Camera app. That sounds obvious, and it is. But, when your iPhone is locked and the screen is off, or in always-on mode, clicking Camera Control just wakes up the screen. You have to click it again, after the screen is awake, to jump to shooting mode. Apple’s thinking here is obvious: they want to prevent an accidental click of Camera Control while it’s in your pocket or purse from opening Camera. Unlike almost every other mode you can get into on an iPhone, when you’re in shooting mode in Camera, the device won’t go to sleep automatically after a minute or two of inactivity. The current default in iOS 18, in fact, is to auto-lock after just 30 seconds. (Settings → Display & Brightness → Auto-Lock.) In shooting mode, the Camera app will stay open for a long time before going to sleep. You don’t want that to happen inadvertently while your iPhone is in your pocket.

But what I’ve encountered over the last week are situations where my iPhone is in my pocket, and I see something fleeting I want to shoot. This happened repeatedly during a Weezer concert my wife and I attended last Friday. (Great show.) What I want is to click Camera Control while taking the iPhone out of my pocket, and have it ready to shoot by the time I have it in front of my eyes. That’s how the on/off button works on dedicated cameras like my Ricoh GR IIIx. But with an iPhone 16, more often than not, the single click of Camera Control while taking the iPhone out of my pocket has only awakened the screen, not put it into shooting mode. I need to click it again to get into shooting mode. With a fleeting moment, that’s enough to miss the shot you wanted to take. The whole point of this is being a quick-draw gunslinger.

Apple offers a more-protective option in Settings → Camera → Camera Control → Launch Camera to require a double click, rather than single click, to launch your specified camera app. As I write this, I wish that they also offered a less-protective option to always launch your camera app on a single click, even if the phone is locked and the screen is off. A sort of “I’ll take my chances with accidental clicks” option. It’s possible though, that Apple tried this, and found that inadvertent clicks are just too common. But as it stands, there’s no great way to always jump into shooting mode as quickly as possible.

When the iPhone is locked and the screen is off, a double click of Camera Control will jump you into shooting mode. I started doing that over the weekend, and at first I thought it satisfied my desire. But the problem with that is that if the iPhone is locked but the screen is already awake, a double click on Camera Control will jump into Camera on the first click and snap a photo with the second. I’ve had to delete at least half a dozen blurry accidental shots because of that.

A gesture that would avoid accidental invocations is clicking-and-holding the Camera Control button. In theory Apple could offer that as a surefire way to launch Camera while taking your iPhone out of your pocket. But Apple has reserved the click-and-hold gesture for visual intelligence, a new Apple Intelligence feature announced last week. That’s the feature that will put the nail in the coffin of dedicated “AI” devices like Humane’s AI Pin and Rabbit’s R1. Visual intelligence isn’t yet available, even in the developer betas of iOS 18.1, but the click-and-hold gesture is already reserved for it.4

So where I’ve landed, at this writing, is trying to remember only to double-click Camera Control while taking my iPhone out of my pocket to shoot, and just sucking it up with the occasional blurry unwanted shot when I double-click Camera Control when the screen is already awake. The only other technique I can think to try is to remember to always wait until I see that the screen is awake before clicking Camera Control, tilting the phone if necessary to wake it, but that would seemingly defeat the purpose of getting into shooting mode as quickly as possible.

By default, if you light-press-and-hold on Camera Control, nearly all of the UI elements disappear from the viewfinder screen. The shooting mode picker (Cinematic, Video, Photo, Portrait, Spatial, etc.), the zoom buttons (0.5×, 1×, 2×, 5×), the front/rear camera toggle, the thumbnail of your most recent photo — all of that disappears from the screen, leaving it about as uncluttered as the original iPhone Camera interface. Think of it as a half-press while using Camera Control as a shutter button. Dedicated hardware cameras have, for many decades, offered two-stage shutter buttons that work similarly. With those dedicated cameras, you press halfway to lock in a focus distance and exposure; then you can move the camera to recompose the frame while keeping the focus distance and exposure locked, before pressing fully to capture the image. Apple has promised to bring this feature to the Camera app for all iPhone 16 models in a software update “later this year”. (It’s not there yet in iOS 18.1 beta 4.) Camera Control does not have quite the same precise feel as a true two-stage shutter button that physically clicks at two separate points of depression, but it might eventually, in future iPhone models.

One issue with Camera Control is that because it’s capacitive, it’s tricky for case makers. The obvious solution is to just put a cutout around it, letting the user’s finger touch the actual Camera Control button. Apple’s more elegant solution, on their own silicone and clear cases and the new glossy polycarbonate cases from their subsidiary Beats, is “a sapphire crystal, coupled to a conductive layer to communicate the finger movements to the Camera Control”. That doesn’t sound like something you’re going to see in cheap $20 cases. In my testing, both with Apple’s cases and Beats’s, it works fairly seamlessly. I do think you lose some of the feel from the haptic feedback on light presses, though. Ultimately, Camera Control makes it more true than ever before that the best way to use an iPhone is without a case.

One more thing on Camera Control. Of the features that are adjustable via Camera Control (again: Exposure, Depth (ƒ-stop), Zoom, Cameras, Style, Tone), “Cameras” is an easily overlooked standout. Zoom offers continuous decimal increments from 0.5× to 25.0×. That is to say, you can slide your finger to get zoom values like 1.7×, 3.3×, 17.4×, etc. I almost never want that. I want to stick to the precise true optical increments: 0.5×, 1×, 2×, and 5×. That’s what the “Cameras” setting mode offers. Think of it as Zoom, but only with those precise values. (Instead of “Cameras”, this setting could have been called “Lenses”, but that’s potentially confusing because 1× and 2× both come from the same physical lens; the difference is how the sensor data is treated.) In fact, I wish I could go into Settings and disable Zoom from the list of features available in Camera Control. If I ever really want a non-optical zoom level, I can use the existing on-screen interface options.

What’s obvious is that Camera Control clearly was conceived of, designed, and engineered by photography aficionados within Apple who are intimately familiar with how great dedicated cameras work and feel. It surely must have been championed, politically, by the same group. It’s really just rather astounding that there is now a hardware control dedicated to photography on all new iPhones — and a mechanically complex control at that.

Photography, Aside From Camera Control

As usual, I’ll leave it to other reviewers to do in-depth pixel-peeping comparisons of image quality, but suffice it to say, to my eyes, the iPhone 16 Pro (the review unit I’ve been daily driving this past week) camera seems as great as usual.

The big new photographic feature this year has nothing to do with lenses or sensors. It’s a next-generation Photographic Styles, and it’s effectively “RAW for the rest of us”. This has always been the edge of my personal photographic nerdery/enthusiasm. I care enough about photography to have purchased numerous thousand-ish dollar cameras (and lenses) over the decades, but shooting RAW has never stuck for me. I understand what it is, and why it is technically superior to shooting JPEG/HEIC, but it’s just too much work. RAW lets you achieve better results through manual development in post, but you have to develop in post because raw RAW images (sorry) look strikingly flat and unsaturated. For a while I tried shooting RAW + JPEG, where each image you take is stored both as a straight-off-the-sensor RAW file and a goes-through-the-camera-imaging-pipeline JPEG file, but it turned out I never ever went back and developed those RAW images. And relative to JPEG/HEIC (which, henceforth, I’m just going to call “shooting JPEG” for brevity, even though iPhones have defaulted to the more-efficient HEIC format since iOS 11 seven years ago), RAW images take up 10× (or more) storage space.

It’s just too much hassle. The increase in image quality I can eke out developing RAW just isn’t worth the effort it takes — for me. For many serious photographers, it is. Everyone has a line like that. Some people don’t do any editing at all. They never crop, never change exposure in post, never apply filters — they just point and shoot and they’re done. For me, that line is shooting RAW.

Apple first introduced Photographic Styles with the iPhones 13 three years ago, with four self-descriptive primary styles: Rich Contrast (my choice), Vibrant, Warm, and Cool. Each primary style offered customization. Find a style you like, set it as your default, and go about your merry way.

With the iPhone 16 lineup, this feature is now significantly more powerful, while remaining just as convenient and easy to use.5 Apple eliminated what used to be called “filters” and recreated the better ones (e.g. Vibrant and Dramatic) as styles. There are now 15 base styles to choose from, most of them self-descriptively named (Neutral, Gold, Rose Gold), some more poetically named (Cozy, Quiet, Ethereal). The default style is named Standard, and it processes images in a way that looks, well, iPhone-y. The two that have me enamored thus far are Natural and Stark B&W. Standard iPhone image processing has long looked, to many of our eyes, at least slightly over-processed. Too much noise reduction, too much smoothing. A little too punchy. Natural really does look more natural, in a good way, to my eyes. Stark B&W brings to mind classic high-contrast black-and-white films like Kodak Tri-X.

A key aspect of Photographic Styles — and this has been true since the first generation of the feature, starting three years ago — is that they’re non-destructive. It’s not at all like applying a filter and overwriting the original file. You can change your mind about any of it in post. Set your default to Stark B&W and later on, editing in Photos, you can change your mind and go back to a full-color image using whichever other style you want. There’s a lot of complex image processing going on behind the scenes — both in the iPhone 16 hardware and iOS 18 software — to make this seem like no big deal at all.

I’ve always felt a little guilty about the fact that I’m too lazy to shoot RAW. This next-generation Photographic Styles feature in the iPhone 16 lineup might assuage, I suspect, the remaining vestiges of that guilt.

Design — and the Pro vs. Regular Question

Apple kindly supplied me with all four models in the iPhone 16 lineup for review: the 16 in aquamarine, 16 Plus in pink, 16 Pro in natural titanium, and 16 Pro Max in desert titanium. Aquamarine is my favorite color color on any iPhone in memory. It’s just so fun, and quite vibrant. Pink is good too, with to my (and my wife’s) eyes, a touch of purple to it. Natural titanium looks extremely similar, if not identical, to the natural titanium on last year’s iPhone 15 Pro. Desert titanium is sort of more gold than tan, but there is some brown to it, without rendering it the least bit Zune-like.

In short, the regular iPhone 16 offers some colors that truly pop. The iPhone 16 Pro models remain, as with all previous “Pro” iPhone colorways, staid shades of gray. White-ish gray, gray gray, near-black gray, and now desert gray.

I always buy black, or the closest to black Apple offers, and this tweet I wrote back in 2009 remains true, so the only year I’ve ever had a “which color to buy?” personal dilemma was 2016 with the iPhones 7, which Apple offered in both a matte “black” and Vader-like glossy “jet black”.6 I still kind of can’t believe Apple offered two utterly different blacks in the same model year.

But “which model to buy?” is sometimes more of a dilemma for yours truly. In 2020 I bought a regular iPhone 12, not the 12 Pro, on the grounds that it weighed less and felt better in hand than the Pro models. Whatever the non-pro iPhone 12 lacked in photographic capabilities wouldn’t matter so much, I correctly guessed, while I remained mostly homebound during the COVID epidemic. But I was also tempted, sorely, by the 12 Mini, and in hindsight I really don’t remember why that’s not the model I bought that year.

It’s a good thing, and a sign of strength for Apple, when the regular iPhone models are extremely appealing even to power users. It seemed like an artificial restriction last year, for example, that only the 15 Pro model got the new Action button. The year prior, only the 14 Pro models got the Dynamic Island; the regular iPhone 14 models were stuck with a no-fun notch. If you’re fairly deep into the weeds regarding TSMC’s first-generation 3nm fabrication, it makes sense why only the iPhone 15 Pro models got a new chip (the A17 Pro — there was no regular A17) while the iPhone 15 models stayed on the year-old A16, but still, that was a bummer too. This year, the regular 16 and 16 Plus not only get the Action button, they get the new Camera Control too (which, as I opined above, would make more sense as a “pro” feature than the Action button did last year), and a new A18 chip fabricated with TSMC’s second-generation 3nm process.

For my own use I’ve preordered an iPhone 16 Pro. But for the first time since the aforementioned iPhone 12 in 2020, I was genuinely tempted by the regular iPhone 16. The biggest functional difference between the 16 and 16 Pro models is that only the 16 Pros have a third telephoto lens. Last year, the 15 Pro Max went to 5×, but the 15 Pro remained at 3×. This year, both the 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max have the 5× telephoto lens. I tend to think I seldom use the telephoto lens, but it turns out I used it a little more in the last year than I would have guessed. Using smart albums in Photos to sort images by camera and lens, it looks like out of 3,890 total photos I shot with my iPhone 15 Pro, the breakdown by camera lens went like this:

CameraOptical ZoomPhotosPercentage
Ultrawide0.5×3389%
Main1×/2×3,07679%
Telephoto47612%

And, eyeballing the photos in that telephoto lens smart album, for most of them, I could have used a little more reach. I don’t expect to use 5× more often than I used 3×, but I expect to get better shots when I do. But it’s also the case that a fair number of the photos in that telephoto smart album are shots I just don’t care about that much. I do use the telephoto lens, and I look forward to having a 5× one instead of 3×, but I could live without it entirely and not miss it too much. (I only have 8 videos shot using 3× from the last year. Longer lenses are not good focal lengths for handheld video.)

Aesthetically, the two-lens arrangement on the back of the iPhones 16 and 16 Plus is far more pleasing than the three-lens triangle-in-a-square arrangement on the iPhones 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max.

Back view of an iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro.

For the last few years (the iPhone 13, 14, and 15 generations), the aesthetic difference in the back camera systems hasn’t been so striking, because Apple placed the non-pro iPhones’ two lenses in a diagonal arrangement inside a square block. The two lenses on the backs of the iPhones 11 and 12 were aligned on the same axis (vertical, when holding the phone in tallscreen orientation), but they were still inside a raised square. You’d have to go back to 2018’s iPhone XS to find a two-lens iPhone with the iPhone 16’s pleasing pill-shaped bump.

Back view of an iPhone 15, iPhone 12, and iPhone XS.

Either you care about such purely aesthetic concerns or you don’t. I care. Not enough to purchase an iPhone 16 instead of a 16 Pro, but it was a factor. The iPhone 16 and 16 Plus simply look more pleasing from the back and feel better in hand, especially caseless, than any iPhone since 2018.

Here’s the pricing for the entire iPhone 16 lineup:

Model128 GB256 GB512 GB1 TB
16$800$900$1,100
16 Plus$900$1,000$1,200
16 Pro$1,000$1,100$1,300$1,500
16 Pro Max$1,200$1,400$1,600

But perhaps a better way to compare is by size class. Regular size:

Model128 GB256 GB512 GB1 TB
16$800$900$1,100
16 Pro$1,000$1,100$1,300$1,500

And big-ass size:

Model128 GB256 GB512 GB1 TB
16 Plus$900$1,000$1,200
16 Pro Max$1,200$1,400$1,600

At both size classes, it’s a $200 delta to go from the regular model to its Pro equivalent. Looking at Apple’s excellent-as-always Compare page, here are the advantages/exclusive features that jump out to me for the 16 Pro models, other than the extra telephoto camera lens, roughly in the order in which I personally care:

  • Always-on display.
  • ProMotion display (adaptive refresh rates up to 120 Hz vs. 60 Hz).
  • An extra GPU core (6 vs. 5), which Geekbench 6 benchmarks as 17 percent faster. Call it 20 percent if you trust core count more than Geekbench.
  • Night mode portrait photos.
  • LiDAR scanner, which I presume is a (or the?) reason why Night mode portrait photos are Pro-exclusive.
  • “Studio-quality four-mic array”. I put that in quotes not to express skepticism but because I haven’t tested it or compared it against the iPhone 16. But it, uh, sounds like a great new feature.
  • USB 3 support vs. USB 2, for “up to 20× faster transfers”.
  • A roughly 4 percent faster CPU in both single- and multi-core performance, according to Geekbench 6.
  • Ability to shoot Dolby Vision video up to 4K at 120 fps.
  • Apple ProRAW photos and ProRes videos (and other pro video features like log video recording and ACES).

I think it’s amazing that the iPhone Pro models are now able to shoot professional-caliber video. But I don’t shoot video professionally. And because I don’t, I can’t remember the last time I needed to transfer data from my iPhone via the USB-C port, so, while the Pro models offer a noticeable advantage in USB performance, I might never use it personally over the next year.

Another difference is that the 16 Pro models have slightly bigger displays than the regular 16 models. The 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max are 6.3 and 6.9 inches; the regular 16 and 16 Plus are 6.1 and 6.7. Whether that’s actually an advantage for the Pro models depends on whether you care that they’re also slightly taller and heavier devices in hand.

Battery Life

I omitted from the above comparison the one spec people care most about: battery life. Here is the sleeper spec where the Pro models earn their keep. Once again grouping like-vs.-like size classes, and including the 15 Pro models for year-over-year comparison:

ModelVideoVideo (streamed)
15 Pro23 hours20 hours
1622 hours18 hours
16 Pro27 hours22 hours
 
15 Pro Max29 hours25 hours
16 Plus27 hours24 hours
16 Pro Max33 hours29 hours

Those battery life numbers come from Apple, not my own testing (and Apple cites them as “up to” numbers). But those numbers suggest 20 percent longer battery life on the 16 Pro models compared to their size-class non-pro counterparts. Anecdotally, that feels true to me. I use a Shortcuts automation to turn on Low Power mode whenever my iPhone battery level drops below 35 percent. With my iPhone 15 Pro, that generally happens every night at some point. Over the last week using the iPhone 16 Pro as my primary iPhone, it hasn’t dropped that low most nights. To say the least, that’s not a rigorous test in any way, shape, or form. But Apple has no history of exaggerating battery life claims, especially relative comparisons between devices. I think it’s the real deal, and the 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max probably get 20 percent longer battery life than their corresponding 16 and 16 Plus counterparts, and between 10–15 percent over last year’s Pro models, in practical day-to-day use.

That alone might be worth a big chunk of the $200 price difference to some people.

Apple Intelligence

I spent the weekdays last week running iOS 18.0; on Friday afternoon, I upgraded my 16 Pro review unit to the developer beta of iOS 18.1 (beta 3 at the time, since upgraded to beta 4). I’m sure many, if not most reviewers, will review only what comes in the box, and what’s coming in the box this week will be iOS 18.0 without any Apple Intelligence features.

That stance is fair enough, but I don’t see it as a big deal to include my 18.1 experience in this review. iOS 18.1 feels pretty close to shipping. Apple has promised “October”, and my gut feeling, using it for the last five days on this review unit, is that it’s pretty solid. I suspect it might ship closer to early October than late October. But even if it doesn’t appear until Halloween, I don’t think it’s absurd or offensive that Apple is already using Apple Intelligence to market the iPhone 16 lineup. It’s a little awkward right now, but it’s not a sham. It’s vaporware until it actually ships, but it’s vaporware that anyone with a developer account can install right now.

Also, none of the Apple Intelligence features currently in iOS 18.1 are game-changing. The Clean Up feature in Photos is pretty good, and when it doesn’t produce good results, you can simply revert to the original. The AI-generated summaries of messages, notifications, and emails in Mail are at times apt, but at others not so much. I haven’t tried the Rewrite tool because I’m, let’s face it, pretty confident in my own writing ability. But, after my own final editing pass, I ran this entire review through the Proofread feature, and it correctly flagged seven mistakes I missed, and an eighth that I had marked, but had forgotten to fix. Most of its suggestions that I have chosen to ignore were, by the book, legitimate. (E.g., it suggested replacing the jargon-y lede with the standard spelling lead. It also flagged my stubborn capitalization of “MacOS”.) It took 1 minute, 45 seconds to complete the proofreading pass of the 7,200+ words in Apple Notes on the iPhone 16 Pro. (I tried the Rewrite function for shits and giggles and the only way I can describe the results is that it gave up.)

New Siri definitely offers a cooler-looking visual interface. And the new Siri voices sound more natural. But it also feels like Siri is speaking too slowly, as though Siri hails from the Midwest or something. (Changing Siri’s speaking rate to 110 percent in Settings → Accessibility → Siri sounds much more natural to my ears, and feels like it matches old Siri’s speaking rate.) Type to Siri is definitely cool, but I don’t see why we couldn’t have had that feature since 2010. I have actually used the new “Product Knowledge” feature, where Siri draws upon knowledge from Apple’s own support documentation, while writing this review. It’s great. But maybe Apple’s support website should have had better search years ago?

These are all good features. But let’s say you never heard of LLMs or ChatGPT. And instead, at WWDC this year, without any overarching “Apple Intelligence” marketing umbrella, Apple had simply announced features like a new cool-looking Siri interface, typing rather than talking to Siri, being able to remove unwanted background objects from photos, a “proofreading” feature for the standard text system that extends and improves the years-old but (IMO) kinda lame grammar-checking feature on MacOS, and brings it to iOS too? Those would seem like totally normal features Apple might add this year. But not tentpole features. These Apple Intelligence features strike me as nothing more than the sort of nice little improvements Apple makes across its OSes every year.

Apple reiterated throughout last week’s “It’s Glowtime” keynote, and now in its advertising for the iPhone 16 lineup, that these are the first iPhones “built for Apple Intelligence from the ground up”. I’m not buying that. These are simply the second generation of iPhone models with enough RAM to run on-device LLMs. LLMs are breakthrough technology. But they’re breakthroughs at the implementation level. The technology is fascinating and important, but so are things like the Swift programming language. I spent the first half of my time testing the iPhone 16 Pro running iOS 18.0 and the second half running 18.1 with Apple Intelligence. A few things got a little nicer. That’s it.

I might be underselling how impossible the Clean Up feature would be without LLMs. I am very likely underselling how valuable the new writing tools might prove to people trying to write in a second language, or who simply aren’t capable of expressing themselves well in their first language. But like I said, they’re all good features. I just don’t see them as combining to form the collective tentpole that Apple is marketing “Apple Intelligence” as. I get it that from Apple’s perspective, engineering-wise, it’s like adding an entire platform to the existing OS. It’s a massive engineering effort and the on-device execution constraints are onerous. But from a user’s perspective, they’re just ... features. When’s the last year Apple has not added cool new features along the scope of these?

Apple’s just riding — and now, through the impressive might of its own advertising and marketing, contributing to — the AI hype wave, and I find that a little eye-roll inducing. It would have been cooler, in an understated breathe-on-your-fingernails-and-polish-them-on-your-shirt kind of way, if Apple had simply added these same new features across their OSes without the marketing emphasis being on the “Apple Intelligence” umbrella. If not for the AI hype wave the industry is currently caught in, this emphasis on which features are part of “Apple Intelligence” would seem as strange as Apple emphasizing, in advertisements, which apps are now built using SwiftUI.

If the iPhone 16 lineup was “built from the ground up” with a purpose in mind, it’s to serve as the best prosumer cameras ever made. Not to create cartoon images of a dog blowing out candles on a birthday cake. The new lineup of iPhones 16 are amazing devices. The non-pro iPhone 16 and 16 Plus arguably offer the best value-per-dollar of any iPhones Apple has ever made. This emphasis on Apple Intelligence distracts from that.

The problem isn’t that Apple is marketing Apple Intelligence a few weeks before it’s actually going to ship. It’s that few of these features are among the coolest or most interesting things about the new iPhone 16 lineup, and none are unique advantages that only Apple has the ability or inclination to offer.7 Every phone on the market will soon be able to generate impersonal saccharine passages of text and uncanny-valley images via LLMs. Only Apple has the talent and passion to create something as innovative and genuinely useful as Camera Control.


  1. While I’m reminiscing, allow me to reiterate my belief that the icon on the iPhone Home button is the single greatest icon ever designed. In my 2017 review of the iPhone X, I wrote:

    The fundamental premise of iOS Classic is that a running app gets the entire display, and the Home button is how you interact with the system to get out of the current app and into another. Before Touch ID, the Home button was even labeled with a generic empty “app” icon, an iconographic touch of brilliance. [...]

    I find it hard to consider a world where that button was marked by an icon that looked like a house (the overwhelmingly common choice for a “home” icon) or printed with the word “HOME” (the way iPods had a “MENU” button). Early iPhone prototypes did, in fact, have a “MENU” label on the button.

    I truly consider the iPhone Home button icon the single best icon ever. It perfectly represented anything and everything apps could be — it was iconic in every sense of the word.

     ↩︎

  2. It’s almost unfathomable how much of a pain in the ass voicemail was before the iPhone. Rather than manage messages on screen, you placed a phone call to your carrier and interfaced with their system through a phone call. You had to deal with each message sequentially, pressing numeric buttons on your keypad. “Press 1 to play, 2 to go to the next message, 7 to delete.” And you had to actually listen to the messages to know who they were from. It was horrible. ↩︎︎

  3. Unless, I suppose, you live in the EU and have exercised your hard-earned right to delete it↩︎︎

  4. That’s the only way to launch visual intelligence, which means the feature is exclusive to the iPhone 16 lineup and won’t be available on iPhone 15 Pros. I’m truly looking forward to this feature, so that’s a bummer for iPhone 15 Pro owners. ↩︎︎

  5. Here’s Apple’s brief documentation for the old Photographic Styles feature (iPhones 13, 14, 15) and the new version (iPhones 16). ↩︎︎

  6. Jet black aluminum is back, and as Vader-esque as it was on the iPhone 7 in 2016, with a new colorway for the Apple Watch Series 10 this year. I have a review unit in jet black on my wrist and it’s so great. ↩︎︎

  7. It’s fair to argue that Private Cloud Compute is uniquely Apple. Not that Apple is the only company that could build out such an infrastructure for guaranteed-private off-device AI processing, but among the few companies that could do it, Apple is the only one that cares so deeply about privacy that they would. I do not expect Private Cloud Compute to be replicated by Google, Samsung, Meta, Amazon, or Microsoft. Nor any of the AI startups like OpenAI or Anthropic. They simply don’t care enough to do it the hard way. Apple does. But that belongs in the marketing for Apple’s ongoing Privacy campaign, not for the iPhones 16 in particular. ↩︎︎

Apple Intelligence Will Come to More Languages, Including German and Italian, Next Year (But Don’t Hold Your Breath for iPhones and iPads)

Allison Johnson, The Verge:

Apple Intelligence’s list of forthcoming supported languages just got a little longer. After an October launch in US English, Apple says its AI feature set will be available in German, Italian, Korean, Portuguese, Vietnamese, “and others” in the coming year. The company drops this news just days before the iPhone 16’s arrival — the phone built for AI that won’t have any AI features at launch.

Apple’s AI feature set will expand to include localized English in the UK, Canada, Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand in December, with India and Singapore joining the mix next year. The company already announced plans to support Chinese, French, Japanese, and Spanish next year as well.

Apple shared this news with me last night too, and my first thought was, “German and Italian? Does that mean they’ve gotten the OK that Apple Intelligence is, in fact, compliant with the DMA?” But that’s not what they’re announcing. This is just for Apple Intelligence on the Mac — which already offers Apple Intelligence in the EU in MacOS 15.1 Sequoia betas, because the Mac is not a designated “gatekeeping” platform. The standoff over Apple Intelligence on iOS and iPadOS remains.

 ★ 

Mercor

Mercor is solving global labor matching with models that understand human ability.

@mercor_ai raised a $30M Series A at a $250M valuation, led by @victoralazarte and @bgurley at @benchmark, with participation from @peterthiel, @jack, @adamdangelo, and @LHSummers.

Here is the tweet from Brendan Foody.  My only tie to Mercor is that I was sitting next to someone on a plane from the company, we got to chatting, and I was very impressed.  Here is a FAQ about the company and how it will vet talent using AI.

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My Conversation with the excellent Tobi Lütke

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary:

Tyler and Tobi hop from Germany to Canada to America to discuss a range of topics like how outsiders make good coders, learning in meetings by saying wrong things, having one-on-ones with your kids, the positives of venting, German craftsmanship vs. American agility, why German schooling made him miserable, why there aren’t more German tech giants, untranslatable words, the dividing line of between Northern and Southern Germany, why other countries shouldn’t compare themselves to the US, Canada’s lack of exports and brands, ice skating to work in Ottawa, how VR and AI will change retailing, why he expects to be “terribly embarrassed” when looking back at companies in the 2020s, why The Lean Startup is bad for retailers, how fantasy novels teach business principles, what he’s learning next, and more.

Excerpt:

COWEN: Are Canadians different in meetings than US Americans?

LÜTKE: Yes, as well. Yes, that’s true. It’s more on the side of American, definitely on a minimum quality bar. I think Canadians are often more about long term. I’ve seen Canadians more often think about what’s the next step after this step, but also just low ambition. That’s probably not the most popular thing to say around here, but Canada’s problem, often culturally, is a go-for-bronze mentality, which apparently is not uncommon for smaller countries attached to significantly more cultural or just bigger countries.

Actually, I found it’s very easy to work around. I think a lot of our success has been due to just me and my co-founder basically allowing everyone to go for world class. Everyone’s like, “Oh, well, if we are allowed to do this, then let’s go.” I think that makes a big difference. Ratcheting up ambition for a project is something that one has to do in a company in Canada.

COWEN: Is there something scarce that is needed to inject that into Canada and Canadians? Or is it simply a matter of someone showing up and doing it, and then it just all falls out and happens?

LÜTKE: I don’t know. Inasmuch as Shopify may be seen as something that succeeded, that alone didn’t do it. It would’ve been very, very nice if that would’ve happened. Now there’s another cohort of founders coming through. Some of them have been part of Shopify or come back from — I believe there are some great companies in Calgary, like NEO, that are more ambitious.

I think it’s a bit of a decision. The time it worked perfectly was when Canada was hosting the Winter Olympics, which is now a little bit of ancient history. There was actually a program Canada-wide that’s called Own the Podium. That makes sense. It’s home. We have more winter than most, so therefore let’s do well. And then we did. It’s just by far the best performance of Canada’s Olympic team of all times. I think to systematize it and make it stick — changing a culture is very, very difficult, but instances of just giving everyone permission to go for it have also been super successful.

And this:

COWEN: Say we compare Germany to the Netherlands, which is culturally pretty similar, very close to Koblenz. They have ASMLAdyen. Netherlands is a smaller country. Why have they done relatively better? Or you could cite Sweden, again, culturally not so distant from Germany.

LÜTKE: You’re asking very good questions that I much rather would ask you. [laughs] I don’t know. I wish I knew. I started at a small company in Germany; it didn’t do anything. So, it’s not like people didn’t do this. I came to Canada, again, this time it worked. Then I was head down for a very long time, building my thing because it was all-consuming, so I didn’t pay too much attention to — I wasn’t even very deliberate about where to start a company. I started in Ottawa because that’s where my wife and I were during the time she was studying there. We could find great talent there that was overlooked, it seemed, and gave everyone a project to be ambitious with, and it worked.

I think that if you create in geography a consensus that you’re a company really, really worth working for because it’s interesting work, great work, it might actually lead to something — then you can build it. I don’t quite understand why this is not possible to do in so many places in Germany because, again, Germany does have this wonderful appreciation of craftsmanship, which I think is actually underrepresented in software. I think it’s only recently — usually by Europeans — being brought up. Patrick Collison talks about it more and more, and certainly I do, too.

Making software is a craft. I think, in this way, Germany, Czech Republic, other places, Poland, are extremely enlightened in making this part of an apprenticeship system. I apprenticed as a computer programmer, and I thought it was exactly the right way to learn these things. Now, that means there’s, I believe, a lot of talent that then makes decisions other than putting it together to build ambitious startups. Something needs to be uncorked by the people who have more insight than I have.

COWEN: I think part of a hypothesis is that the Netherlands, and also Sweden, are somewhat happier countries than Germany. People smile more. At least superficially, they’re more optimistic. They’re more outgoing.

LÜTKE: I think it’s optimism.

COWEN: It’s striking to me that Germans, contrary to stereotype — I think they have a quite good sense of humor, but a lot of it is irony or somewhat black. Maybe that’s bad for tech. I wonder: people in the Bay Area — do they have a great sense of humor? I’m not sure they do. Maybe there’s some correlations across those variables.

Definitely recommended.  Can you guess which is the one question Tobi refused to answer, for fear of being cancelled?

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A Look at the Race 48 Days Out

We are now 48 days until the 2024 general election. And with the date speeding toward us, I wanted to check in on the state of the race and the latest polls. Kate and I recorded this week’s podcast this morning. And the theme was sort of trying to make sense of just what is happening right now in the aftermath of the build up to the debate and the debate itself. We have another assassination attempt which seems like an oddly secondary story. We have the ongoing grotesquery of Trump’s and Vance’s assault on Springfield, Ohio. The Trump campaign has been rather candid with reporters, telling them that they’re willing to take the hit on now admitting they were lying about the initial Fido and Felix barbecue allegations since it puts immigration at the forefront of the campaign. In other words, it might seem like a bad story for them — they’re revealed as cynical and destructive liars. But it’s a great theme for them. Because if the topic of the day is immigration, they win.

Is that true? Maybe? It’s definitely possible. But I think skepticism is warranted on two counts. The first is that old pattern of Donald Trump stepping on a rake and then insisting that’s just what he meant to do and not only that but it’s the best thing that could happen to him. And there are enough examples of this being true to give normal people pause, to make them worry that there is something they’re missing. But I don’t buy it. This has been a trainwreck for the Trump campaign. It wasn’t intentional. Maybe it ends up being a boon. But not because it was the plan all along. My main point is that people shouldn’t let themselves get psyched out. And I actually don’t buy that it’s helping his campaign.

More specifically, is this really about the border and immigration? Sort of. But the story we’re seeing is more one of a small community being terrorized by a campaign that looks desperate and in which the Republican town and county leaders have been begging the Trump campaign to stop and now saying that they’re not even sure they’re going to vote for Trump because they’re so mad about the situation. I think there’s at least as much argument that the story people are seeing is about the chaos and destructiveness of Trump, which most people don’t like.

The polls of the moment only give a limited view into how this story is affecting the overall dynamics of the campaign. But to the extent they tell us anything they back up my hunch. We’re now getting a sustained run of post-debate polls and they’re pretty strong for Harris, both at the swing state and national level. After what seemed like a pre-debate swoon she’s back to her highest margins of the last two months. Specifically, they show her consolidating meaningful leads in the Blue Wall states and Nevada while remaining neck and neck in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Just today you had a set of swing state polls from Quinnipiac that are of the lopsided variety which drove Joe Biden out of the race. Harris up by six in Pennsylvania, for instance. Maybe that’s an outlier. But another high quality poll from Suffolk a few days ago showed her up by three. We’re not seeing the kind of poll numbers that would make anyone confident of a Harris win. But almost all of them show the race trending in her direction or consolidating the small lead she’s had almost since she got into the race. If you flip the game board and look at it from the perspective of the Trump campaign the electoral paths to victory look narrower and narrower.

It remains the case that if you figure in even a small polling error, it could all be different. But that’s always the case. The information we have and our insight into the future remain as incomplete as ever. But based on the information we have, the trajectory of the race looks friendly to Harris and she’s already at least a bit ahead. Back to the standard points. We have no guarantees about how the race turns out. Polls are a fuzzy predictor. But let’s not be in denial about what the facts in front of us are saying.

Movies Watched, August 2024

Still from “Alien: Romulus,” directed by Fédé Alvarez It’s true that as humans we retell the same stories endlessly, but the Walt Disney Corporation has transformed this instinct…

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 235 thousand initial claims, up from 230 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 2.0, up from -7.0.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.85 million SAAR, down from 3.95 million in July.

Wednesday 18 September 1661

The next morning up early and begun our march; the way about Puckridge very bad, and my wife, in the very last dirty place of all, got a fall, but no hurt, though some dirt. At last she begun, poor wretch, to be tired, and I to be angry at it, but I was to blame; for she is a very good companion as long as she is well.

In the afternoon we got to Cambridge, where I left my wife at my cozen Angier’s while I went to Christ’s College, and there found my brother in his chamber, and talked with him; and so to the barber’s, and then to my wife again, and remounted for Impington, where my uncle received me and my wife very kindly. And by and by in comes my father, and we supped and talked and were merry, but being weary and sleepy my wife and I to bed without talking with my father anything about our business.

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Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket experiences abort as its Rutherford engines began firing, prior to liftoff

Right before Rocket Lab’s 53rd Electron rocket lifted off from its Launch Complex-1 in Mahia, New Zealand, the vehicle experienced a T-0 abort. The engines began firing as expected at T-2 seconds, but the vehicle remained on the pad. Image: Rocket Lab via launch livestream

Update Sept. 18, 9:47 p.m. EDT: Rocket Lab noted the scrub was due to “a ground systems sensor trigger.”

Rocket Lab had to stand down from launching its 53rd Electron rocket on a mission for the France-based Internet of Things company, Kinéis. The rocket aborted prior to liftoff after the nine Rutherford engines began firing about two seconds prior.

The mission, dubbed ‘Kinéis Killed the RadIOT Star’ by Rocket Lab, was set to launch from Launch Complex 1 Pad A on Sept. 19 at 11 a.m. NZST (Sept. 18 at 7 p.m. EDT, 2300 UTC). Because it was an instantaneous launch window, Rocket Lab had to pivot from further launch attempts on Thursday (local time) and look to a future launch opportunity.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Rocket Lab said that “Electron’s flight computer aborted on a ground systems sensor trigger and safely shut down the engines. Electron, the launch pad, and Kineis’ payload all remain healthy.”

A new launch date wasn’t announced as of 9:30 p.m. EDT (0130 UTC).

“While the 1st mission referred to the town of Kinéis (‘No Time Toulouse’), the name of this 2nd mission is borrowed from music, with a little flashback to the late 70s, with the hit by British group The Buggles, ‘Video Killed the Radio Star,’ Kinéis said in a statement. “The Radio/RadIoT pun is reminiscent of the French company’s commercial ambition to capture 30% of the global IoT market in the medium term.”

Following the ‘No Time Toulouse’ mission, which launched on June 19, 2024, this will be the second out of five planned missions to fill out Kinéis’ constellation of 25 satellites in low Earth orbit.

 

“The Kinéis teams are ready to build on the success of the 1st launch. They have capitalized on this first and delicate technical experience of putting our first 5 satellites into position and are delivering a real technical performance in managing the 5 new satellites simultaneously, in addition to the 5 already in the air,” said Alexandre Tisserant, the chairman of Kinéis in a statement. “Rocket Lab’s Electron launcher made a major contribution to this success, thanks to the precision with which it injected our nanosatellites into their positions.

“The IoT revolution is underway. Thanks to our space-based connectivity, we’ll be able to connect any object anywhere in the world in near real time. Go Kinéis!”

The satellites are designed to allow for greater technology use in remote destinations around the globe in three main areas: tracking, monitoring and alerting.

“Kinéis’ space connectivity applications are used in a number of fields that represent major challenges for mankind, its activities and its environment today: natural risk prevention (detection of forest fires, floods, pollution, etc.), monitoring of infrastructures and energy networks (detection of anomalies, predictive maintenance, etc.), transport and logistics monitoring, agriculture, traceability of wild and farmed animals, and monitoring of commercial and leisure maritime activities,” the company wrote.

The deployment of the satellites will begin following the second of two planned burns on the Electron’s Kick Stage, which happens a little more than one hour and five minutes after liftoff.

“After the first Curie engine burn to circularize the Kick Stage’s orbit, Curie will ignite again for an eight second burn to set a specific argument of perigee, enabling Kinéis to deploy five satellites to a precise location,” Rocket Lab wrote regarding the deployment. “All five satellites will be deployed in a precise sequence in singles and as pairs to build out the constellation exactly as Kinéis needs it.”

While the specific dates for the next three launches after this mid-week flight have not been announced, Kinéis said that the launch timeline overall was generally “between June 2024 and early 2025.”

“We’re excited to partner again with Kinéis on this transformative project to advance the future of global connectivity. The precise deployment capabilities of our Electron launcher are crucial for the success of Kinéis’ constellation,” said Rocket Lab founder and CEO, Sir Peter Beck, in a statement. “This second launch is not just about placing satellites; it’s about enabling a new era of global IoT integration. Together, we are setting the stage for unparalleled innovation and connectivity.”

FOMC Projections

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is slightly above expectations, and inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up a little later this year).

In June, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 5.125% at the end of 2024.  The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 4.5% at the end of 2024.  

Market participants expect the target range to be around 4.25% at the end of 2024.

The BEA's second estimate for Q2 GDP showed real growth at 3.0% annualized, following 1.4% annualized real growth in Q1.  Early estimates for Q2 GDP are around 3% annualized, however, projections for Q4 2024 were revised down slightly!

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date2024202520262027
Sept 20241.9 to 2.11.8 to 2.21.9 to 2.31.8 to 2.1
June 20241.9 to 2.31.8 to 2.21.8 to 2.1---
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in August and the projections for Q4 2024 were revised up.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date2024202520262027
Sept 20244.3 to 4.44.2 to 4.54.0 to 4.44.0 to 4.4
June 20243.9 to 4.23.9 to 4.33.9 to 4.3---
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY). The projections for PCE inflation were revised down.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date2024202520262027
Sept 20242.2 to 2.42.1 to 2.22.02.0
June 20242.5 to 2.92.2 to 2.42.0 to 2.1---

PCE core inflation increased 2.6 percent YoY in July. The projections for core PCE inflation were about the same.  


Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date2024202520262027
Sept 20242.6 to 2.72.1 to 2.32.02.0
June 20242.8 to 3.02.3 to 2.42.0 to 2.1---

FOMC Statement: 50bp Rate Cut

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Michelle W. Bowman, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
emphasis added

Tectonic Surfing

The worst is when you wipe out in the barrel and you're trapped for several million years until erosion frees you.

Elon Musk threatens to sue FAA after feds propose fining SpaceX $633,000

NASA officials inside SpaceX's launch control center at Hangar X watch the liftoff of a Falcon 9 rocket a few miles away on March 3, 2024.

Enlarge / NASA officials inside SpaceX's launch control center at Hangar X watch the liftoff of a Falcon 9 rocket a few miles away on March 3, 2024. (credit: NASA/Aubrey Gemignani)

The Federal Aviation Administration alleged Tuesday that SpaceX violated its launch license requirements on two occasions last year by using an unauthorized launch control center and fuel farm at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

The regulator seeks to fine SpaceX $633,009 for the alleged violations, which occurred during a Falcon 9 launch and a Falcon Heavy launch last year. Combined, the proposed fines make up the largest civil penalty ever imposed by the FAA's commercial spaceflight division.

“Safety drives everything we do at the FAA, including a legal responsibility for the safety oversight of companies with commercial space transportation licenses,” said Marc Nichols, the FAA's chief counsel, in a statement. “Failure of a company to comply with the safety requirements will result in consequences.”

Read 13 remaining paragraphs | Comments

USA fact of the day

For the first time in decades, public health data shows a sudden and hopeful drop in drug overdose deaths across the U.S.

“This is exciting,” said Dr. Nora Volkow, head of the National Institute On Drug Abuse [NIDA], the federal laboratory charged with studying addiction. “This looks real. This looks very, very real.”

National surveys compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention already show an unprecedented decline in drug deaths of roughly 10.6 percent. That’s a huge reversal from recent years when fatal overdoses regularly increased by double-digit percentages.

Some researchers believe the data will show an even larger decline in drug deaths when federal surveys are updated to reflect improvements being seen at the state level, especially in the eastern U.S.

“In the states that have the most rapid data collection systems, we’re seeing declines of twenty percent, thirty percent,” said Dr. Nabarun Dasgupta, an expert on street drugs at the University of North Carolina.

According to Dasgupta’s analysis, which has sparked discussion among addiction and drug policy experts, the drop in state-level mortality numbers corresponds with similar steep declines in emergency room visits linked to overdoses.

Here is the link, via Anna Gat of Interintellect.

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Why the Federal Reserve has gambled on a big interest-rate cut

The bold move carries economic and political risks

When good systems go bad

Image via Unsplash

Over the years, I've added countless systems in my work and life that compensate for my weaknesses. They do everything from help me floss, to pack my son's school bag, to deliver complex video projects.

As systems have taken on a larger and larger role in my life I've realized one problem: they all eventually go too far. A good system can turn bad if you push it far enough.

When daily workouts backfire

For example, let's say you start cycling daily. You develop a little system that helps get you dressed, out of the door, on the road, and cleaned up afterward. For many months this is entirely successful.

But after a while, problems start emerging. Maybe you start getting pain in your knees, back, or hips. Maybe it’s fatigue because you're not recovering between rides. Maybe you have your first bad accident.

You can't just crank the "cycle daily" dial to 11. You need a counterbalance.

The solution: cycle three times a week and add some stretching.

The price of success

Work and creative systems are the same. If you work a system well enough, drawbacks emerge. It's the price of success.

For instance, I'm a big believer in notes. Notes changed the creative game for me, but it's easy to go too far with notes.

  • You can collect too many notes.

  • You can waste time organizing notes.

  • You can consume too much media.

  • Above all, notes can limit your imagination. Instead of freely inhabiting your imagination, you limit yourself to the confines of your notes.

The solution:

  • Create fewer notes, but higher quality

  • Focus more on reviewing notes, less on piling up new notes

So really, it’s not that all systems eventually go bad. It's this: good system systems incorporate counterbalance.


Last chance to learn how to make video directly from me

It’s the final 48 hours to sign up for Everything I Know About Making Videos! Workshop begins on Friday. Click here to learn more and register!

AIA: Architecture Billings Declined in August; Multi-family Billings Declined for 25th Consecutive Month

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained sluggish in August, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 45.7
It has now been nearly two years since firms saw sustained growth. However, clients are still expressing interest in new projects, as inquiries into work have continued to increase during that period. However, those inquiries remain challenging to convert to actual new projects in the pipeline, as the value of newly signed design contracts declined for the fifth consecutive month in August.

Business conditions softened in all regions of the country in August, with firms located in the West reporting the softest conditions for the second consecutive month. Billings were flat at firms located in the Northeast for the previous two months but dipped back into negative territory again this month. Firms of all specializations also saw declining billings in August, with conditions remaining particularly soft at firms with a multifamily residential specialization.
...
The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
emphasis added
• Northeast (48.2); Midwest (46.6); South (46.8); West (45.7)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.6); institutional (47.4); multifamily residential (44.0)

AIA Architecture Billing Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 45.7 in August, down from 48.2 in July.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

This index has indicated contraction for 22 of the last 23 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment into 2025.

Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for twenty-five consecutive months (with revisions).   This suggests we will see a further weakness in multi-family starts.

Why do workers dislike inflation?

How costly is inflation to workers? Answers to this question have focused on the path of real wages during inflationary periods. We argue that workers must take costly actions (“conflict”) to have nominal wages catch up with inflation, meaning there are welfare costs even if real wages do not fall as inflation rises. We study a menu-cost style model, where workers choose whether to engage in conflict with employers to secure a wage increase. We show that, following a rise in inflation, wage catchup resulting from more frequent conflict does not raise welfare. Instead, the impact of inflation on worker welfare is determined by what we term “wage erosion”—how inflation would lower real wages if workers’ conflict decisions did not respond to inflation. As a result, measuring welfare using observed wage growth understates the costs of inflation. We conduct a survey showing that workers are willing to sacrifice 1.75% of their wages to avoid conflict. Calibrating the model to the survey data, the aggregate costs of inflation incorporating conflict more than double the costs of inflation via falling real wages alone.

That new paper is by Joao GuerreiroJonathon HazellChen Lian Christina Patterson. No slight intended to the co-authors, whom I do not know, but Hazell is one of the handful of best and most interesting young economists today.  Everything he says matters.  Here is other MR coverage of Hazell.

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More Police, or Just Better Deployed Police? The D.C. Auditor Has an Opinion

A while ago, some asshole with a blog noted:

As Joe Friday notes, on the criminal justice side of things, D.C. has seen a precipitous drop in murders this year (down thirty percent), and all of that happened before Congressional interference or the D.C. Council’s new crime bill. So what happened? Well, the MPD decided to start arresting people for violent crimes and the federally-appointed federal prosecutors decided to prosecute some of them*. Violent crime arrests increased 121 percent. The key thing is there was no change in staffing (if anything, staffing dropped by three percent). This was the MPD deciding to do their jobs. Likewise, the federal prosecutors actually prosecuted more than 33% of their cases. The question is why wasn’t this done sooner–and, again, the Council has very little role in these kinds of decisions.

Well, the D.C. Auditor appears to agree (boldface mine):

A long-awaited study of the issue, managed by D.C. Auditor Kathy Patterson and released Thursday, suggests that D.C. has pretty much all the patrol officers it needs to effectively police the city. MPD could use 65 additional detectives to solve crimes, the study’s authors argue, but it found little need for the sort of aggressive hiring surge pushed by Bowser, Ward 7 Councilmember Vince Gray, ex-Ward 2 Councilmember Jack Evans, and a host of other reactionary voices convinced that D.C.’s 2023 crime wave was attributable to its smaller police force. Instead, the study—compiled by a trio of consulting firms with law enforcement experience—presents alternatives for civilianizing more of the police force or outsourcing work to other city agencies in order to free up MPD to focus on the nuts and bolts of closing cases.

MPD and its boosters have never presented strong evidence for why more officers would solve the city’s problems as opposed to, say, allocating resources to high crime areas or committing to a “focused deterrence” approach that emphasizes the arrest and prosecution of the small number of people who commit the most crimes in the community. However, the study will nonetheless provide a powerful piece of evidence to policymakers as they confront the relentless drumbeat from Bowser and her allies to steer more funding toward police hiring at all costs…

Moving forward, the Council has an opportunity to take these recommendations seriously and try to force change in these calcified institutions. Many lawmakers urged patience as they awaited the study’s release and before making serious decisions about the size of MPD. Now that it’s finally out in the world, will they listen?

I’m guessing they won’t, and Congress certainly won’t, but at least someone in D.C. government is talking about how to reduce crime in a way that will actually work.

It’s Never Been a Meritocracy: Like Sports, Let’s Level the Playing Field

Dismantling DEI is a Step Backwards for Diversity and Progress

Kamala Harris’s performance at last week’s debate proved she belongs in our 2024 election. But I doubt it will quiet the “DEI hire” epithet spewing on social media or reverse the crescendo of recent lawsuits that has led many companies to dissolve their DEI efforts.

Getting rid of DEI in favor of “merit-only” practices is a mistake.

We’ve never had a meritocracy. Even if we did, it’s impossible to define what “merit” is for most decisions.

U.S. history is rife with white men handed opportunities not available to women and people of color. Those of a certain age remember newspaper want ads divided into “Male” and “Female” categories. Many industries refused to hire anyone but white men, even over equally or better qualified women and minorities.

Women were excluded as airline pilots and military aviators until 1973; it wasn’t until 1993 that women could fly combat aircraft. As one of these women, I had a front row seat to this progress.

These non-merit personnel practices created exclusionary cultures at many organizations that persist today: fewer than 5% of U.S. airline pilots are women. The right-leaning American Enterprise Institute says culture is the biggest barrier to entry into science and engineering career fields for women and minorities, who are interviewed and hired at lower rates, and when hired, are often not welcomed by peers and receive less mentoring and guidance from superiors.

The concept of DEI was created to help underrepresented groups overcome cultural barriers. But the opposition believes this is unfair, that everything should be based on “merit alone.”

“Merit-only” sounds good in theory, but in practice selection decisions can’t be reduced  to a spreadsheet. As an Air Force officer and senior civilian who sat on dozens of selection and promotion panels, spreadsheets were useful for scoring resumes to reduce the number of candidates interviewed. But things were more subjective after that. We often used interview panels with a “whole person” concept to determine our “best qualified” candidate. I saw many candidates with the highest scoring resume go down in flames during interviews while a “lesser” candidate wowed us with fresh ideas.

It’s like the Super Bowl.

The team with the best record in football doesn’t always win the Lombardi Trophy. Instead, the NFL playoff system recognizes that a team with a lower record might have had a tougher regular season, lost a key player, or just had bad luck. Sound like life itself?

The playoffs level the field, giving all teams above a minimum qualification a chance to compete for the championship.

DEI does the same. As an example, I was on a civilian hiring panel where a candidate was a young minority woman. Her resume had scored toward the low end because she lacked experience in one area. But she was good enough to make it into the playoffs.”

She had by far the best interview. During selection deliberations we realized her lack of experience in the one area would bring a fresh perspective to our organization. We didn’t discuss preferences, skin color, gender or anything else.

She became one of our superstars. I hate to think someone might accuse her of being a “DEI hire” because a spreadsheet score ranked her a bit lower than the competition. Like the team that stumbles into the playoffs, we simply gave her a chance to compete. She proved she was the best person for the job.

Best practices exist to help level the field. These include simple things such as casting a wide net for applicants, interview panels that include at least one member from outside an organization and asking all candidates the same questions. Many corporations now have standardized hiring practices that reduce discrimination.

But the anti-DEI crowd thinks leveling the playing field, just as many sports do for playoff entry, is somehow discriminatory. They would have us keep exclusionary cultures in play, even though studies have found that companies with exclusionary cultures don’t make the best decisions and are less profitable than more diverse organizations.

It’s time to level the playing field.

The now radioactive term DEI may need to die. But for the United States to be competitive, the concept needs to live on.

Eileen Bjorkman and Beverly Weintraub will be giving a presentation on “The Path to Equality for Women Military Aviators” at the Udvar Hazy Center in Fairfax, Virginia, on September 19. Click here for more information.


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Happiness Swings Votes – And America’s Current Mood Could Scramble Expectations Of Young And Old Voters

The Conversation logo

Happiness may be reshaping America’s political landscape.

Since the 1960s and the election of President John F. Kennedy, younger voters have supported Democratic candidates, while older voters leaned Republican. But that dynamic has been evolving, and now, in 2024, large numbers in both groups are bucking traditional assumptions about their political affiliation.

This shift challenges the age-old political adage that youthful idealism gives way to conservative pragmatism with age. As pollsters and pundits scramble to explain the phenomenon, one intriguing theory emerges: It may come down to happiness.

The Unhappy Vote For Change

I am an interpersonal communication researcher and the co-founder and co-director of the Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet Political Communication Lab. Our lab investigates and analyzes public opinion and political trends nationwide. With the upcoming election, I’ve been specifically examining the potential influence of happiness on voting patterns.

Research worldwide indicates that happy people prefer keeping things the same, and they tend to vote for the incumbent in political elections. Voters who aren’t as happy are more open to anti-establishment candidates, seeing the government as a source of their discontent.

These findings may help to explain the Democratic Party’s waning support among young people.

This group is still reliably blue. Vice President Kamala Harris has an edge among voters under 30, with 50% favoring her over former President Donald Trump’s 34%. U.S. voters ages 18 to 35 mainly prefer Democratic views on issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. Yet they are more likely to vote Republican than they have been in the past, especially young men.

Youth Are No Longer Carefree

Declining life satisfaction and happiness levels among young Americans may help to explain their changing political preferences.

Our March 2024 poll found that 55% of respondents ages 18 to 34 reported dissatisfaction with their lives, compared with 65% of the general population.

These findings, as well as other national polls, challenge the common belief that young adulthood is one of life’s happiest periods.

Happiness has traditionally been seen as a U-shaped curve, with the youngest and oldest voters reporting greatest levels of happiness. Young adults worldwide reported being carefree and happy, enjoying their newfound independence and opportunities. Older folks, meanwhile, were finally past the stresses of juggling work, family and relationships, and beginning to enjoy retirement.

Today’s young Americans are unhappier than past generations. That’s true worldwide, according to the 2024 World Happiness Report, but the drop is particularly drastic in the U.S., where suicide rates among young people rose over 60% between 2007 and 2021.

Experts attribute the unhappiness of young Americans today to myriad factors, including a childhood interrupted by the pandemic, the dramatic increase in school shootings and rising costs of living. Young people are also stressed by political polarization, distrust in the media and two wars raging abroad, in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.

Social media exacerbates these anxieties, encouraging young people to compare themselves with others in unhealthy ways and exposing them to a lot of negative news, which can make reality seem worse than it is.

All these happiness-dampening concerns may be shaping political preferences. Some unhappy young voters are drawn to candidates who promise economic stability and growth. Other young adults, unhappy with the political system, want radical change – any change.

Seniors For Harris

The changing political preferences of unhappy young Americans are particularly revealing when compared with those of older Americans, who have been getting happier in recent years.

Recent polling data suggests that older voters, long a Republican base, are trending blue in 2024. As of September 2024, Harris leads among older voters, with somewhere between 51% to 55% favoring her over Trump.

These happy seniors appear to be concerned about sweeping changes that could occur under another Trump administration, like ending even more abortion rights. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022 erased what was seen as a major milestone and accomplishment for that generation.

Older Americans are also focused on retaining Social Security benefits, a Democratic priority that Trump has wavered on, and maintaining lower prescription drug costs. Both of these programs help keep older Americans happy and healthy. They barely register for young people.

Polls are notoriously slippery, and they’ll keep changing. But, increasingly, age is no longer a very good indicator of party affiliation.

Happiness Matters At The Ballot Box

I am not suggesting that happiness drives all voting behavior or explains changing political preferences in the United States. But I am saying that it should not be ignored.

My research indicates that to understand why people vote the way they do, it’s essential to examine happiness alongside other key factors like the economy and personal experiences. By studying how happiness connects with age, life experiences and engagement with social media, researchers can gain clearer insights into the changing voting behavior of both young and old voters.

The 2024 presidential candidates seem to have intuited this. The Harris campaign is all about “joy” and celebrating happiness and community. The Trump campaign adopts an angrier tone and a grievance-filled approach.

Ultimately, happiness is more than just a mood. Just as much as ideology, the literal pursuit of happiness may be shaping decisions at the ballot box.

Editor’s note: The chart in this story documenting youth unhappiness has been updated to correct a typo. Fifty-five percent of respondents under 35 reported some degree of dissatisfaction with their lives, not satisfaction.The Conversation

Carol Bishop Mills, Co-Director, Political Communication and Public Opinion Lab, Florida Atlantic University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


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Beamed Propulsion and Planetary Security

Beamed Propulsion and Planetary Security

Power beaming to accelerate a ‘lightsail’ has been pondered since the days when Robert Forward became intrigued with nascent laser technologies. The Breakthrough Starshot concept has been to use a laser array to drive a fleet of tiny payloads to a nearby star, most likely Proxima Centauri. It’s significant that a crucial early decision was to place the laser array that would drive such craft on the Earth’s surface rather than in space. You would think that a space-based installation would have powerful advantages, but two immediate issues drove the choice, the first being political.

The politics of laser beaming can be complicated. I’m reminded of the obligations involved in what is known as the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (let’s just call it the Outer Space Treaty), spurred by a paper from Adam Hibberd that has just popped up on arXiv. The treaty, which comes out of the United Nations Office for Space Affairs, emerged decades ago and has 115 signatories globally.

Here’s the bit relevant for today’s discussion, as quoted by Hibberd (Institute for Interstellar Studies, London):

States Parties to the Treaty undertake not to place in orbit around the earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction, install such weapons on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space in any other manner. The moon and other celestial bodies shall be used by all States Parties to the Treaty exclusively for peaceful purposes. The establishment of military bases, installations and fortifications, the testing of any type of weapons and the conduct of military manoeuvres on celestial bodies shall be forbidden. The use of military personnel for scientific research or for any other peaceful purposes shall not be prohibited. The use of any equipment or facility necessary for peaceful exploration of the moon and other celestial bodies shall also not be prohibited.

So we’re ruling out weaponry in orbit or elsewhere in space. Would that prohibit building an enormous laser array designed for space exploration? Hibberd believes a space laser would be permitted if its intention were for space exploration or planetary defense, but you can see the problem: Power beaming at this magnitude can clearly be converted into a weapon in the wrong hands. And what a weapon. A 10 km X 10 km installation as considered in Philip Lubin’s DE-STAR 4 concept generates 70 GW beams. You can do a lot with that beyond pushing a craft to deep space or taking an Earth-threatening asteroid apart.

Build the array on Earth and the political entanglements do not vanish but perhaps become manageable as attention shifts to how to avoid accidentally hitting commercial airliners and the like, including the effects on wildlife and the environment.


Image:
Pushing a lightsail with beamed energy is a feasible concept capable of being scaled for a wide variety of missions. But where do we put the beamer? Credit: Philip Lubin / UC-Santa Barbara.

The second factor in the early Starshot discussions was time. Although now slowed down as its team looks at near-term applications for the technologies thus far examined, Starshot was initially ramping up for a deployment by mid-century. That’s pretty ambitious, and we wouldn’t have a space option that could develop the beamer if that stretchiest-of-all-stretch goals actually became a prerequisite.

So if we ease the schedule and assume we have the rest of the century or more to play with, we can again examine laser facilities off-planet. Moreover, Starshot is just one beamer concept, and we can back away from its specifics to consider an overall laser infrastructure. Hibberd’s choice is the DE-STAR framework (Directed Energy Systems for Targeting of Asteroids and Exploration) developed by Philip Lubin at UC-Santa Barbara and first described in a 2012 on planetary defense. The concept has appeared in numerous papers since, especially 2016’s “A Roadmap to Interstellar Flight.”

If the development of these ideas intrigues you, let me recommend Jim Benford’s A Photon Beam Propulsion Timeline, published here in 2016, as well as Philip Lubin’s DE-STAR and Breakthrough Starshot: A Short History, also from these pages.

What Hibberd is about in his new paper is to work out how far away various categories of laser systems would have to be to ensure the safety of our planet. This leads to a sequence of calculations defining different safe distances depending on the size of the installation. The DE-STAR concept is modular, a square phased array of lasers where each upgrade indicates a power of base 10 expansion to the array in meters. In other words, while DE-STAR 0 is 1 meter to the side, DE-STAR 1 goes to 10 meters to the side, and so on. Here’s the chart Hibberd presents for the system (Table 1 in his paper).

Keep scaling up and you achieve arrays of stupendous size, and in fact an early news release from UC-Santa Barbara described a DE-STAR 6 as a propulsion system for a 10-ton interstellar craft. It’s hard to imagine the 1,000 kilometer array this would involve, although I’m sure Robert Forward would have enjoyed the idea.

So taking Lubin’s DE-STAR as the conceptual model (and sticking with the more achievable lower end of the DE-STAR scale), how can we lower the risks of this kind of array being used as a weapon? And that translates into: Where can we put an array so that even its largest iterations are too far from Earth to cause concern?

Hibberd’s calculations involve determining the minimum level of flux generated by an individual 1 meter aperture laser element (this is DE-STAR 0) – “the unphased flux of any DE-STAR n laser system” – and using as the theoretical minimum safe distance from Earth a value on the order of 10 percent of the solar constant at Earth, meaning the average electromagnetic radiation per unit area received at the surface. The solar constant value is 1361 watts per square meter (W/m²); Hibberd pares it down to a maximum allowed flux of 100 W/m² and proceeds accordingly.

Now the problems of a space-based installation become strikingly apparent, for the calculations show that DE-STAR 1 (10 m X 10 m) would need to be positioned outside cis-lunar space to ensure these standards, and even further away (beyond the Earth-Moon Lagrange 2 point) for ultraviolet wavelengths (λ ≲ 350nm). That takes us out 450,000 kilometers from Earth. However, a position at the Sun-Earth L2 Lagrange location would be safe for a DE-STAR 1 array.

The numbers add up, and we have to take account of stability. The Sun/Earth Lagrange 4 and 5 points would allow a DE-STAR 2 laser installation to remain at a fixed location without on-board propulsion. DE-STAR 3 would have to be positioned beyond the asteroid belt, or even beyond Jupiter if we take ultraviolet wavelengths into account. The enormous DE-STAR 4 level array would need to be placed as far as 70 AU away.

All this assumes we are working with an array on direct line of sight with the Earth, but this does not have to be the case. Let me quote Hibberd on this, as it’s rather interesting:

Two such locations are the Earth/Moon Lagrange 2 point (on a line from the Earth to the Moon, extending beyond the Moon by ∼ 61, 000 km) and the Sun/Earth Lagrange 3 point (at 1 au from the Sun and diametrically opposite the Earth as it orbits the Sun). In both cases, the instability of these points will result in the DE-STAR wandering away and potentially becoming visible from Earth, so an on-board propulsion would be needed to prevent this. One solution would be to use the push-back from the lasers to provide a means of corrective propulsion. However it would appear a DE-STAR’s placement at either of these points is not an entirely satisfactory solution to the problem.

So we can operate with on-board propulsion to achieve no direct line-of-sight to Earth, but the orbital instabilities involved make this problematic. Achieving the goal of a maximum safe flux at Earth isn’t easy, and we’re forced to place even DE-STAR 2 arrays at least 1 AU from the Sun at the Sun/Earth Lagrange 4 or 5 positions to achieve stable orbits. DE-STAR 3 demands movement beyond the asteroid belt at a minimum. DE-STAR levels beyond this will require new strategies for safety.

Back to the original surmise. Even if we had the technology to build a DE-STAR array in space in the near future, safety constraints dictate that it be placed at large distances from the Earth, making it necessary to have first developed an infrastructure within the Solar System that could support a project like this. As opposed to one-off missions from Earth launching before such an infrastructure is in place, we’ll need to have the ability to move freely at distances that ensure safety, unless other means of planetary protection can be ensured. Hibberd doesn’t speculate as to what these might be, but somewhere down the line we’re going to need solutions for this conundrum.

The paper is Hibberd, “Minimum Safe Distances for DE-STAR Space Lasers,” available as a preprint. Philip Lubin’s “A Roadmap to Interstellar Flight” appeared in Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 69, 40-72 (2016). Full text.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.356 million Annual Rate in August

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.356 million Annual Rate in August

A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in August were above expectations and starts in June and July were revised slightly. A solid report.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).

Starts 2023 vs 2024Total starts were up 3.9% in August compared to August 2023. 

The YoY increase in August total starts was due to an increase in both multi-family and single-family starts.

Single family starts have been up year-over-year in 12 of the last 14 months, whereas multi-family has been up year-over-year in only 2 of last 14 months. Year-to-date (YTD), total starts are down 4.0% compared to the same period in 2023. Single family starts are up 10.4% YTD, and multi-family down 32.6% YTD.
There is much more in the article.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.356 million Annual Rate in August

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,356,000. This is 9.6 percent above the revised July estimate of 1,237,000 and is 3.9 percent above the August 2023 rate of 1,305,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 992,000; this is 15.8 percent above the revised July figure of 857,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 333,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,475,000. This is 4.9 percent above the revised July rate of 1,406,000, but is 6.5 percent below the August 2023 rate of 1,578,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 967,000; this is 2.8 percent above the revised July figure of 941,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 451,000 in August.
emphasis added
Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in August compared to July.   Multi-family starts were up 5.5% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) increased in August and were up 5,1% year-over-year.

Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsThe second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts.

Total housing starts in August were above expectations and starts in June and July were revised slightly.  

I'll have more later …

Chapter: Make It Run, Make It Right, Make It Fast

This is the first chapter in a month & a half. Turns out it’s hard to break a slump like that. But here you go. From the “Managing” section of the book. Thoughts? Missing arguments? Lack of clarity? (Can you tell I’m not feeling terribly confident at the moment? I’ll get it back.)

The first day I started programming in BASIC on a PDP-8E (this is probably…

Read more

More on non-anonymous kidney exchange in India

 Here's some further description of how kidney exchange is conducted in India without authorization* to use nondirected donors (so that all exchanges are conducted in cycles, i.e. in the absence of chains of exchange).

Vivek B. Kute, Himanshu V Patel, Subho Banerjee,Divyesh P Engineer, Ruchir B Dave, Nauka Shah, Sanshriti Chauhan ,Harishankar Meshram , Priyash Tambi  , Akash Shah, Khushboo Saxena,Manish Balwani , Vishal Parmar, Shivam Shah, Ved Prakash ,Sudeep Patel, Dev Patel, Sudeep Desai, Jamal Rizvi , Harsh Patel, Beena Parikh, Kamal Kanodia, Shruti Gandhi, Michael A Rees,  Alvin E Roth,  Pranjal Modi “Impact of single centre kidney-exchange transplantation to increase living donor pool in India: A cohort study involving non-anonymous allocation,”Nephrology, September 2024, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nep.14380  

"In India, 85% of organ donations are from living donors and 15% are from deceased donors. One-third of living donors were rejected because of ABO or HLA incompatibility. Kidney exchange transplantation (KET) is a cost-effective and legal strategy to increase living donor kidney transplantation (LDKT) by 25%–35%.


"3.3 Non-anonymous allocation

"The THOA*, which regulates KET in India, is silent on the need for anonymity, so there is no legal requirement for anonymity in India, as compared with other countries, such as the Netherlands and Sweden. Our experience was that 90% of iDRP [incompatible Donor-Recipient Pairs] requested the opportunity to meet their matched donor and recipient pair (mDRP) and 10% asked the treating physician to decide if they should meet. None of the iDRP requested anonymity. Therefore, we have practiced absolute non-anonymity, meaning that all mDRPs meet and share medical reports after a potential exchange is identified, but before the formal allocation of pairs. If an iDRP requests anonymity, we would be willing to accommodate them, but to date, none have done so.

"Upon meeting with their mDRP, the iDRP can refuse the proposed exchange option without reason and continue to be on the waitlist and active in the KET pool. iDRPs must complete transplant fitness and legal documents required for transplant permission from the health authority before they are given the opportunity to meet their mDRP. A meeting between mDRPs occurs in the presence of a transplant physician, who can help solve any query before the proposed match is accepted by the involved pairs. iDRP are introduced to their mDRP prior to scheduling transplants to avoid chain collapse due to iDRP refusal of the mDRP. The mDRP shares medical reports of donors with each other, can also discuss with their other family members, and consults with their family physician/nephrologist before deciding whether to proceed. Living kidney donors are fully informed of perioperative and long-term risks before making their decision to donate. In India, donor age group matching is most commonly expected for all iDRP in the KAS."

###########

Earlier:

Monday, September 18, 2023

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications increased 14.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 13, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 26 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 24 percent from the previous week and was 127 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Application activity was up significantly last week, as market expectations of a rate cut from the Fed pulled mortgage rates lower. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, at 6.15 percent, is now at its lowest since September 2022 and is more than a full percentage point lower than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance applications were up 24 percent – more than double last year’s pace, with both conventional and government activity jumping to the fastest pace of refinancing since 2022.”

Added Kan, “There was also an increase in purchase applications, and it is notable that conventional purchase applications increased to a pace ahead of last year, which also drove overall purchase applications very close to year-ago levels. Homebuyers are seeing improving affordability conditions, sparked by lower rates and slower home-price growth.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.15 percent from 6.29 percent, with points increasing to 0.56 from 0.55 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Purchase IndexClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 0.4% year-over-year unadjusted (mostly unchanged year-over-year!).  

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 17% from the lows in late October 2023, but still below the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

Mortgage Refinance Index
The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and mostly flat lined for two years - but has increased recently as mortgage rates declined.

Cosmic clouds form Cosmic clouds form


El Bastón

A woman in a purple jumper, named María Victoria Maldonado, picking berries in a lush green forest.

To complete the perilous project his mother never finished, a filmmaker documents Indigenous resistance in war-torn Colombia

- by Aeon Video

Watch at Aeon

Four thoughts on Eurosclerosis

The question of why some rich countries fall into economic decline, and how they can pull themselves back out again, is increasingly important. These stagnations are increasingly common around the world — it’s possible to argue that Germany, Japan, the UK, Italy, France, and Canada all fall into this category. These are all rich, first-rank economies with long and stories histories of successful companies and technological innovation. Now they all seem to be drifting into stagnation at the same time.

European countries are worried about this, and they should be. A long-awaited report to the European Commission by Mario Draghi — an economist and former prime minister of Italy — makes for grim reading. The gap in living standards between the EU and the U.S. is large — in general, Europeans are less than 3/4 as rich as Americans. And contrary to popular belief, only a small amount of the gap can be accounted for by the fact that Americans work more:

Source: Mario Draghi

Europeans simply produce less for every hour of work than Americans do. And the gap is growing — in the mid-90s, the EU’s productivity was about equal to America’s, but in the three decades since, the countries that were part of the EU at that time have fallen significantly behind:

Source: Mario Draghi

The “sick man of Europe” is just…Europe.

Draghi’s report — there’s a 69-page overview, which I read, and a 328-page list of specific recommendations, which I skimmed — focuses on three main challenges for European “competitiveness”. These are:

  1. Lack of innovation

  2. Expensive energy

  3. Vulnerable supply chains and weak defense industry

The third of these is obviously important, but it’s more of a focus on the future than an explanation of past trends, and the solutions Draghi comes up with are very similar to what America is already trying to do. So I’m going to focus on the first and second of these.

The “lack of innovation” is basically the old question of “Where’s the European Google?”, plus the problem that European companies don’t use enough IT. Draghi points out Europe’s lack of big new tech companies, and shows that Europe’s lagging productivity growth is concentrated in IT and sectors like business services that make heavy use of IT:

Source: Mario Draghi

On the energy front, Draghi points out that Europeans pay a lot more for electricity and natural gas than Americans or Chinese people do:

Source: Mario Draghi

Draghi’s report is a needed wake-up call for a sleepy, complacent region that has viewed itself for too long as a beautiful, unchanging “garden”. It’s chock full of useful technical suggestions, especially on energy policy. Many of its basic ideas — harmonizing regulations, investing in AI, increasing R&D spending, hardening supply chain vulnerabilities, and so on — seem spot on. I hope everyone in Europe reads the report and takes its basic message to heart.

But I thought I’d offer an outsider’s perspective, by listing a few issues I had with the report. These are either things I think the report missed, or things that seem like they’ll be stumbling blocks for Draghi’s ideas.

1. What about aging?

When I see a productivity divergence between rich countries, my first reaction is to think about population aging. There’s pretty good evidence that aging reduces a nation’s growth, both through the increased dependency burden, and through slowdowns in productivity. Since the mid-90s, Europe’s median age has gone from 2 years older than the U.S. to 4 years older:

Surprisingly, Draghi’s report doesn’t mention aging at all. It does briefly mention population decline, which is related, but doesn’t really explain why this is a challenge. Maybe Draghi thinks there’s just nothing to be done about aging — and he might be right — but I did think it deserved more focus as a cause of the U.S.-Europe divergence.

As for how to address the aging problem, that’s something every country is struggling with. But biasing immigration policy toward people at the start of their working lives seems like a start.

2. Is “more Europe” always the answer?

Read more

Voyager 1 Just Fired Up Thrusters It Hasn’t Used in Decades

Ashley Strickland, reporting for CNN:

Engineers at NASA have successfully fired up a set of thrusters Voyager 1 hasn’t used in decades to solve an issue that could keep the 47-year-old spacecraft from communicating with Earth from billions of miles away. [...]

As a result of its exceptionally long-lived mission, Voyager 1 experiences issues as its parts age in the frigid outer reaches beyond our solar system. When an issue crops up, engineers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, have to get creative while still being careful of how the spacecraft will react to any changes.

Currently the farthest spacecraft from Earth, Voyager 1 is about 15 billion miles (24 billion kilometers) away. The probe operates beyond the heliosphere — the sun’s bubble of magnetic fields and particles that extends well beyond Pluto’s orbit — where its instruments directly sample interstellar space.

Michael Chabon, on Threads:

I find the continuing mission of Voyager 1 so moving, for the way its name alone evokes a time of promise, for the thought of that tiny contraption way out there in the vastness at the edge of the heliosphere — perhaps the farthest any human-made thing may ever travel — a bit battered, swiftly aging, still doing the work it was purposed to do.

An amazing feat of engineering five decades ago, kept going by amazing feats of engineering today.

 ★ 

Israel Planted Explosives in Pagers Sold to Hezbollah, Officials Say

Sheera Frenkel and Ronen Bergman, reporting for The New York Times:

Israel carried out its operation against Hezbollah on Tuesday by hiding explosive material within a new batch of Taiwanese-made pagers imported into Lebanon, according to American and other officials briefed on the operation.

The pagers, which Hezbollah had ordered from Gold Apollo in Taiwan, had been tampered with before they reached Lebanon, according to some of the officials. Most were the company’s AP924 model, though three other Gold Apollo models were also included in the shipment.

The explosive material, as little as one to two ounces, was implanted next to the battery in each pager, two of the officials said. A switch was also embedded that could be triggered remotely to detonate the explosives.

At 3:30 p.m. in Lebanon, the pagers received a message that appeared as though it was coming from Hezbollah’s leadership, two of the officials said. Instead, the message activated the explosives. Lebanon’s health minister told state media at least nine people were killed and more than 2,800 injured.

The devices were programmed to beep for several seconds before exploding, according to three of the officials.

Hezbollah leadership had ordered its members to forgo modern phones for security reasons, convinced (probably correctly) that Israeli intelligence was able to track them. So they switched to decades-old pagers. But Israel seemingly infiltrated the supply chain of Gold Apollo and boobytrapped the pagers.

In the initial pandemonium after the attack was triggered, there was speculation that, somehow, it was simply the batteries that exploded. But batteries — especially the AAA batteries these pagers use — don’t explode with that much force:

Independent cybersecurity experts who have studied footage of the attacks said it was clear that the strength and speed of the explosions were caused by a type of explosive material.

“These pagers were likely modified in some way to cause these types of explosions — the size and strength of the explosion indicates it was not just the battery,” said Mikko Hypponen, a research specialist at the software company WithSecure and a cybercrime adviser to Europol.

This whole operation sounds like it would make for a great movie.

(Hypponen, whom I believe I met, at least once, at a long-ago Macworld Expo or WWDC, was previously referenced on DF in 2012 regarding a widespread Mac Trojan horse.)

 ★ 

Wednesday assorted links

1. Stanford remote work conference will be held in person.

2. What the other people say too.

3. What is bottlenecking progress in chemistry?

4. Prizes for submitting difficult questions for AIs.

5. Can AI improve health care pricing?

6. Some new and important YIMBY vs. NIMBY results, using AI, by Arpit Gupta and co-authors.

7. Announcing the meta-science podcast from Institute for Progress (I will have a forthcoming installment in it, the other participants are excellent).

8. Joshua Rothman on Olivier Roy (New Yorker).

The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

A key NASA commercial partner faces severe financial challenges

Spacious zero-g quarters with a big TV.

Enlarge / Rendering of an individual crew quarter within the Axiom habitat module. (credit: Axiom Space)

Axiom Space is facing significant financial headwinds as the company attempts to deliver on two key commercial programs for NASA—the development of a private space station in low-Earth orbit and spacesuits that could one day be worn by astronauts on the Moon.

Forbes reports that Axiom Space, which was founded by billionaire Kam Ghaffarian and NASA executive Mike Suffredini in 2016, has been struggling to raise money to keep its doors open and has had difficulties meeting its payroll dating back to at least early 2023. In addition, the Houston-based company has fallen behind on payments to key suppliers, including Thales Alenia Space for its space station and SpaceX for crewed launches.

"The lack of fresh capital has exacerbated long-standing financial challenges that have grown alongside Axiom’s payroll, which earlier this year was nearly 1,000 employees," the publication reports. "Sources familiar with the company’s operations told Forbes that co-founder and CEO Michael Suffredini, who spent 30 years at NASA, ran Axiom like a big government program instead of the resource-constrained startup it really was. His mandate to staff up to 800 workers by the end of 2022 led to mass hiring so detached from product development needs that new engineers often found themselves with nothing to do."

Read 12 remaining paragraphs | Comments

Are We Now Living in a Parasite Culture?

I don’t like thinking about parasites. My only personal experience occurred at the American Airlines terminal in LaGuardia a few years ago.

I was seated at one of the tables in the Food Court, eating a Dunkin’ chocolate-frosted donut. And I noticed a bit of chocolate stuck to my finger.

I tried wiping it off with a paper napkin. But the chocolate didn’t move.

I tried again—but no luck. The chocolate was clearly stuck to my finger.

That’s when I realized it wasn’t chocolate—it was a nasty tick sucking blood from my hand. Yes, this happened at the Food Court of LaGuardia Terminal B of all places!

Somehow I’d become the meal myself.


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How strange is that? I live in a countrified neighborhood where deer often graze on my front lawn (six of them simultaneously in the video below). But I don’t get a tick until I fly into New York.

I did two things that day.

First, I managed to extract the tic myself (not easy)—I stopped the bleeding and bandaged my finger. Second, I decided to fly into JFK instead of LaGuardia on all future New York trips.

I’ve kept that vow. And I try to forget the incident—especially when eating donuts.

But I’ve been thinking more about parasites recently. That’s because so many cultural institutions now resemble them.

You might even say we live in a society where parasitical behavior is rewarded more than actual creativity.


In the animal kingdom, 10% of known species are parasites. And for most of my lifetime, the same was probably true for the creative economy.

We’ve always had parasites in the culture business. I’m referring to unsavory characters who make a living from plagiarism or piracy or some other scam. Maybe they sell bootleg records. Or peddle hacked Netflix passwords on the dark web. Or forge a Leonardo da Vinci painting.

I’m not naive. I’ve shopped at street markets overseas where vendors peddle fake Nikes, fake Levis, fake Rolexes, fake everything.

This looks like a Patek-Phillipe wristwatch, but it’s a fake. The hand on the far left sub-dial has alrady fallen off. (Source)

Years ago when I did strategy consulting to Fortune 500 clients, we would sometimes devise parasite strategies (that’s exactly what we called them). But we did this simply as a thought exercise—we never actually presented these ideas to clients.

Professional managers disliked these kinds of strategies back then (not anymore, as we shall see below). So we came up with these approaches simply as a way of grasping what others might do to us.

Game theory (for example, the Prisoner’s Dilemma) will teach you many of these. But the basic rules of a parasite strategy are quite simple:

  1. You allow (or convince) someone else to make big investments in developing a market—so they cover the cost of innovation, or advertising, or lobbying the government, or setting up distribution, or educating customers, or whatever. But…

  2. You invest your energy instead on some way of cutting off these dutiful folks at the last moment—at the point of sale, for example. Hence…

  3. You reap the benefits of an opportunity that you did nothing to create.

There are many examples in the real world. An extreme case is a dictator who lets a foreign company build a factory, and then seizes the assets. But if we had time, I could describe a wide range of parasite strategies, many of them quite legal.

The key fact is that large professional businesses rarely engaged in these practices, until quite recently. They were the province of pirates and discounters and boiler room operators.

And the parasites certainly didn’t live in billionaire mansions in Silicon Valley.

“Consider the case of the woman who attracted 713,000 TikTok followers and generated 11 million views for her videos—and got paid $1.85.”

Nowadays, parasite businesses are the largest corporations in the world. Their technologies do many harmful things, but lately they have focused on serving up fake culture, leeching off the creativity of real human artists.

Just take a look at the dominant digital platforms—and consider how little they actually create. But the amount of leeching they do is really quite stunning, especially when compared with the dominant businesses of the past.

  • What does Facebook really create? Almost nothing. It relies on 3 billion users to create content (ugh!—their word, not mine), and then monetizes these people and their unpaid labor.

  • What does Google really create? Almost nothing. Just look at how it destroys newspapers, while doing zero journalism itself. The comparison with a parasite could hardly be more apt. It feeds off the news, but never adds to it.

    Then look at every one of Alphabet’s other business units, and ask the same question. What’s getting created here by the company itself? Very little—but this enormous business is a genuine innovator in parasitical software and business models, leeching off others so successfully, that it now has a market capitalization of $2 trillion.

  • What does Spotify really create? Almost nothing. One person—a single individual—recently redesigned the Spotify user interface from scratch, and came up with something better. But the folks at Spotify don’t worry about their lousy app, because they’re so busy sucking blood from the creative economy, to which they contribute not one whit. Meanwhile, their CEO is now richer than any musician in the history of the world.

  • What does TikTok really create? Almost nothing. This company relies on one million creators—none of them are employees. Most of them are working for hopes and dreams. TikTok is run like a Hollywood studio, but without cast, crew, directors, scriptwriters, or any creative talent whatsoever. But that hardly matters when you’re just a parasite living off unwitting hosts.

Consider the case of the woman who attracted 713,000 TikTok followers and generated 11 million views for her videos—and got paid $1.85 over the course of five months.

No that’s not $1.85 million—it’s one buck and eighty-five pennies. You can practically hear the lifeblood getting sucked out of the creator economy.

Movie poster for the film 'Parasite'
It’s not just a movie—it’s most of the digital economy

Listen to the influencer below explain how he generated 60 million views on social media—and his payouts barely covered the cost of the phone he uses to upload his ‘content’.


I’m told that there’s a parasite that hovers around the eyes of cattle—it literally lives off blood, sweat, and tears (like some parody of Churchill). That’s a metaphor for much of the digital economy nowadays.

Even well-paid influencers typically make money elsewhere—on branding deals, or merchandise, or spinoffs. That’s a lot easier than squeezing money from Meta.

Some platforms are more generous than others, but in every instance the parasite gets much richer than the creative talent.

Hence, for the first time in history, the Forbes list of billionaires is filled with individuals who got rich via parasitical business strategies—creating almost nothing, but gorging themselves on the creativity of others.

That’s how you get to the top in the digital age. Instead of US Steel, it’s Us steal. Instead of IBM, it’s IB Robbing U.

But when parasites get too strong, they risk killing their hosts.

There’s a parasite that hovers around the eyes of cattle—it literally lives off blood, sweat, and tears (like some parody of Churchill). That’s a metaphor for much of the digital economy.

Recall that only ten percent of animal species are parasites. What happens if that number grows to 30% or 50% or 70%? That must have catastrophic consequences, no?

This is precisely the situation in the digital culture right now. Google’s success in leeching off newspapers puts newspapers out of business. Musicians earn less and less, even as Spotify makes more and more. Hollywood is collapsing because it can’t compete with free video made by content providers.

It’s no coincidence that these parasite platforms are the same companies investing heavily in AI. They must do this because even they understand that they are killing their hosts.

When the host dies, AI-generated content can replace human creativity. Or—to be blunt about—the host will die because of AI-generated content. And then the web billionaires won’t even need to toss those few shekels at artists.

It’s every parasite’s dream. The host can die, but the leech still lives on!

But there’s one catch. Training AI requires the largest parasitical theft of intellectual property in history.

Everything now gets seized and sucked dry. No pirate in history has pilfered with such ambition and audacity.

None of these companies offered this information voluntarily. The admissions came via court hearings, government investigations, leaked documents, and other indirect sources.

Parasites like to operate stealthily. They don’t want you to notice. That’s even a telltale sign of a parasite business—it operates in the dark, without transparency.

But this gets harder and harder as the parasite gets larger and larger.

By comparison, that tick sucking my blood at LaGuardia was a small annoyance. The parasites in the culture are now too big to fit inside the largest airplane hangar.

Can we get rid of them? It won’t be easy. Once they’re attached, they don’t want to let go.

But a good start would be:

  1. Full transparency when AI is used, with disclosures required and attached to each work (not hidden in terms and conditions).

  2. Financial penalties for businesses that pretend AI works were made by human beings.

  3. A ‘Creators Bill of Rights’ which would limit platform exploitation of ‘content providers’ (who, for example, would retain copyright, have rights of termination and appeal, etc.).

  4. Payments for the use of copyrighted material in AI training.

  5. Opt out as the default, with no AI training allowed unless creators explicitly agree.

  6. Fines for platforms that share AI work from users without taking reasonable steps to identify it.

  7. Total transparency on how payments to creators are determined (not the vague runaround currently served up).

  8. Actual enforcement of the Sherman Antitrust Act (and other anti-tying laws) so that quasi-monopilistic platforms can’t use their dominance in, for example, search or operating systems as a way of enriching other business units.

These are all obvious steps—it’s really just common sense.

Lawmakers could implement these immediately, and voters would overwhelmingly support these protections. The fact that this hasn’t happened already, suggests that our politicians just might be part of the parasite problem themselves.

What Fusion Energy Can Learn From Biotechnology

Fusion energy is currently facing many of the same opportunities and challenges as the biotechnology industry of the 1970s: exciting scientific and engineering breakthroughs that could change the course of human history, with sufficient public and private funding, more effective business models, and appropriate regulatory oversight. A number of lessons can be learned from the last 50 years of biotechnology industry history, which lead to five proposed initiatives for accelerating progress in fusion: the creation of a university intellectual-property consortium; the standardization of fusion energy milestones along with fusion rating agencies to certify their achievement; the development of new financing and business models to fund the various stages of fusion progress; a coordinated plan for two-sided outreach, education, and engagement at all levels from K–12 to policymakers and the general public; and managing fusion initiatives as part of a broader ecosystem. Applying these historical lessons today can accelerate the development of fusion towards the same level of commercial success and human impact that biotech has achieved.

That is from a new paper by Andrew W. Lo and Dennis Whyte.

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Sag Hallo zu meinem kleinen Freund

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Benno Herz, the program director at the Thomas Mann House in Los Angeles, drew my attention to a curious error that has routinely surfaced in stories about the so-called Scarface Mansion — the sprawling Montecito villa that Bertram Goodhue designed in 1906 for the real-estate tycoon James Waldron Gillespie, and that Brian De Palma later used as a location for his gangster epic starring Al Pacino. Such publications as Forbes, the Los Angeles Times, and the New York Post have claimed that this nine-acre estate once belonged to Thomas Mann. One account alleges that Mann "entertained Albert Einstein and Winston Churchill there." This is all absurd. Mann did well by his royalties, but he could never have afforded a property on the scale of El Fureidis. He owned only one house in America — the one at 1550 San Remo Drive, designed by J.R. Davidson at his behest. He had earlier occupied houses in Princeton, Brentwood, and Pacific Palisades. He never lived in Santa Barbara, though he did visit Lotte Lehmann there. I do not believe he ever met Churchill, much less entertained him. I have no idea how all this started, but, as Benno points out, it could lead to some entertaining deepfakes.

Maybe It Won’t Be That Close?

Stuart Rothenberg is one of those old school election watcher/analyst types, from the pre-poll aggregator, pre-538 era. Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato etc. His new column out from him in Roll Call caught my eye. The gist is simple enough. While he’s not predicting this outcome, Rothenberg says we shouldn’t be surprised if the 2024 presidential actually turns out not to be that close, despite the fact that a photo finish is the one thing everyone on every side of the race seems to agree on. He points to new high quality polls out of Pennsylvania and Iowa which suggest the race may not be quite as close as we all universally assume. And Rothenberg is not the type you’d generally expect to predict or hint at something like this. As Rothenberg puts it, after detailing this universal consensus: “[I]f you are something of a gambler and everyone you know believes the 2024 presidential contest is and will remain extremely close, you probably should put a few dollars on the possibility that November will produce a clear and convincing win for Harris.”

As you can see, even Rothenberg is only willing to point to this possibility in an oblique sort of way. There’s a kind of extreme taboo among Democrats, for some pretty good reasons, around discussing the upside possibilities in the inherent unknowns of a presidential race, especially this one. But since I’m discussing this with TPM readers I am confident I can note the possibilities, these various data markers, without you thinking, well, in that case I don’t need to worry about voting myself and I’m going to bag on that phone banking I was planning on doing each week through November. So don’t worry. I’m not going to offend the gods. We’ll keep this just between us.

Yesterday a family member asked me: how accurate are polls really? I told him that within broad parameters they are highly accurate. The challenge is that when you get into close margins — say, 3 or 4 percentage points — you’re down to margins where the results rely a lot on assumptions pollsters have to make about turnout and the shape of the overall electorate. And those assumptions, while educated assumptions, can be wrong. Then we have to add in the fact that polls have twice underestimated Trump. I’ve explained in other posts why I think there are good reasons to doubt that will happen again, or rather that it’s not more likely than the polls underestimating Harris. But it did happen twice. It’s hard to forget that. And it’s in part because of that that everyone from pollsters to nervous political observers are systematically discounting a number of signs that the Harris campaign may be in a stronger position than people realize.

As we’ve discussed in other posts over the last six weeks and even going back to Biden’s candidacy there are many reasons to think Democrats have a significant enthusiasm and turnout edge over Republicans in this cycle. Harris also continues to reconsolidate the traditional Democratic constituencies that made up Biden’s 2020 coalition. Factors like this suggest either polls or at least conventional wisdom may be underestimating Harris’ strength. Then there are other factors Rothenberg points to that are about the trajectory of the race going forward. Harris is a dynamic campaigner. She trounced Trump in the first and perhaps only debate between the two. She’s likely to have a final advantage in the last two months of the campaign. There’s the simple reality that voters like her much more than Trump — a general prism through which voters will see the various unpredictable events of the final 50 days of the campaign. It’s only a small numerical difference since we discussed this last time, but yesterday Harris finally moved into net positive favorability — albeit by the tiniest of margins — for the first time since mid-2021.

There is also the simple trendline of the poll aggregates themselves. As I write this post, Harris seems to be again building up her national lead, probably a bump of some sort from the debate and subsequent press coverage about it. There was a lot of nervousness just before the debate when Harris’ lead seemed to be slipping. But we’re now almost two months into Harris’ candidacy. And the big picture is one of stability. Harris almost instantly erased Biden’s deficit. Her margin then increased to 3 or 4 points nationally. And it’s mostly stayed there. A touch of undulation here and there, but not much.

On the other side of the ledger, or balancing out these data points, we see the recurring pattern of interpreting Trump’s every bib and bob, every rake stomp, not as a self-inflicted wound but as uncanny smarts which more conventional thinkers aren’t able to fathom. We’ve spent the last week watching JD’s and Trump’s claims about Fido and Felix barbecues fall apart. The Trump campaign responds that yes their lies are falling apart and offending normal people. But every day the campaign is about immigration is a win for them, they argue. And they might be right. But maybe not. Maybe it’s a campaign that’s losing, trying to find an angle but floundering again and again.

My point here isn’t that we should be confident of a Harris victory or that a decisive win, which Rothenberg believes is possible, is the likely outcome. It’s a bit different than that. It’s that there are a number of data points which are consistent with those outcomes which for a variety of reasons — some good, others less so — we’re deciding not to look at. It is probably best not to look at them too closely. Because Trump winning is a very real possibility and the consequences of such a catastrophe are profound. It’s good to feel like you’re running as the underdog because it makes you hungry and smart rather than trying, defensively, to sit on a lead. As long as it doesn’t get to the point of demoralization, it’s good to assume you’re behind because you might be. But we should retain in the back of our minds that there are real reasons to think it won’t actually be that close.

A Very Important Read

Over the last ten days, as Donald Trump and JD Vance have rallied and incited hardened pro-Trump extremists to terrorize the community of Springfield, Ohio, most press reports — even ones from normal publications — have listed the Haitian immigrant population as ranging anywhere from 20,000 to 30,000 people. The problem is that that number is almost certainly wrong.

A number of people have brought this up with me, pointing usually to Census Bureau data (which is tentatively updated between the decennial counts). For instance, Kevin Drum did this write up a couple days ago, suggesting that the total immigrant population might be as low as a tenth of the cited numbers. But as Drum himself notes, the problem is that the most recent data is a year or two old. And a significant part of the run up in the size of the immigrant population has been quite recent. So these sources of data are enough to raise real questions about the accuracy of the most commonly cited press estimates but not recent or precise enough to provide a definitive answer or even a more reliable estimate. I’ve been wanting to dig into this myself because there’s obviously been a lot of misinformation on this specific aspect of the story. But I hadn’t yet found the time. Now the folks at The Downballot, the new publication which is the rebranded and now-independent version of DailyKos Elections, has done a deep and systematic dive through all the various sorts of publicly available data to arrive at an estimate of roughly 10,000 Haitian immigrants. As I would expect from them, it’s methodological, non-polemical and comprehensive.

If you’re interested in how they came up with this number, definitely give it a look. It’s an interesting survey just in terms of how one can look at, triangulate and draw information out of different forms of public data. It’s also a reminder of the importance of smart, independent publications. Publications like the Times, the Post, the Journal and a bunch of other places have tens and often hundreds as many journalists as The Downballot but this piece of digging went undone. Those publications deserve at least a few knocks for running with clearly incorrect data. But my point here isn’t to excoriate them so much as to highlight the importance of sustaining a diverse media ecosystem. You need a lot of different kinds of publications, with different sizes, editorial outlooks, unique skillsets to have a broadly informed news environment and citizenry.

Needless to say, the overall story isn’t totally changed if the Haitian immigrant population is 10,000 as opposed to 20,000 or 30,000. But we shouldn’t have a big national conversation based on purported numbers that are two or three times greater than the real ones.

Scholars in support of the Moraes Brazil decision against X

Here is the link, in Portuguese, here is part of a Claude translation:

We, the undersigned, wish to express our deep concern about the ongoing attacks by Big Tech companies and their allies against Brazil’s digital sovereignty. The Brazilian judiciary’s dispute with Elon Musk is just the latest example of a broader effort to restrict the ability of sovereign nations to define a digital development agenda free from the control of mega-corporations based in the United States. At the end of August, the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court banned the X platform from Brazilian cyberspace for failing to comply with court decisions that required the suspension of accounts that instigated right-wing extremists to participate in riots and occupy the Legislative, Judicial, and Governmental palaces on January 8, 2023. Subsequently, President Lula da Silva made clear the Brazilian government’s intention to seek digital independence: to reduce the country’s dependence on foreign entities for data, AI capabilities, and digital infrastructure, as well as to promote the development of local technological ecosystems. In line with these objectives, the Brazilian state also intends to force Big Tech to pay fair taxes, comply with local laws, and be held accountable for the social externalities of their business models, which often promote violence and inequality.

These efforts have been met with attacks from the owner of X and right-wing leaders who complain about democracy and freedom of expression. But precisely because digital space lacks internationally and democratically decided regulatory agreements, large technology companies operate as rulers, deciding what should be moderated and what should be promoted on their platforms. Moreover, the X platform and other companies have begun to organize, along with their allies inside and outside the country, to undermine initiatives aimed at Brazil’s technological autonomy. More than a warning to Brazil, their actions send a worrying message to the world: that democratic countries seeking independence from Big Tech domination risk suffering disruptions to their democracies, with some Big Tech companies supporting far-right movements and parties.

The Brazilian case has become the main front in the evolving global conflict between digital corporations and those seeking to build a democratic and people-centered digital landscape focused on social and economic development. Technology companies not only control the digital world, but also lobby and operate against the public sector’s ability to create and maintain an independent digital agenda based on local values, needs, and aspirations. When their financial interests are at stake, they work happily with authoritarian governments. What we need is sufficient digital space for states to direct technologies by putting people and the planet ahead of private profits or unilateral state control.

All those who defend democratic values must support Brazil in its quest for digital sovereignty. We demand that Big Tech cease their attempts to sabotage Brazil’s initiatives aimed at building independent capabilities in artificial intelligence, public digital infrastructure, data governance, and cloud services. These attacks undermine not only the rights of Brazilian citizens but the broader aspirations of all democratic nations to achieve technological sovereignty. We also call on the Brazilian government to be firm in implementing its digital agenda and to denounce the pressures against it. The UN system and governments around the world should support these efforts.

Signed by Acemoglu, Zucman, Varoufakis, Cory Doctorow, Morozov, Mazzucato, Piketty, and many others.  Somehow no one is talking about this petition and its embrace of censorship?

Via Pedro.  And you will find some media coverage in Portuguese here.

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Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Announcement

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for August. The consensus is for 1.250 million SAAR, up from 1.238 million SAAR.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for August (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.

• Also at 2:00 PM, FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

Tuesday 17 September 1661

[Continued from yesterday. P.G.] …And the next morning got up, telling my wife of my journey, and she with a few words got me to hire her a horse to go along with me. So I went to my Lady’s and elsewhere to take leave, and of Mr. Townsend did borrow a very fine side-saddle for my wife; and so after all things were ready, she and I took coach to the end of the town towards Kingsland, and there got upon my horse and she upon her pretty mare that I hired for her, and she rides very well. By the mare at one time falling she got a fall, but no harm; so we got to Ware, and there supped, and to bed very merry and pleasant.

Read the annotations

To Defeat Gish Gallopers, You Must Attack the Galloper

I’ve said this so many times on this blog, but to defeat the torrent of bullshit spewed by Gish Gallopers, you must attack the person doing said spewing, not their remarks.

This, of course, is a post about Donald Trump.

Marcy Wheeler remarks about Harris’ debate performance (boldface mine):

Kamala Harris appears to understand that. One of the most fascinating aspects of last week’s debate is how, with one major and two lesser exceptions, rather than directly disputing Trump’s truth, Harris instead rebutted his false claims by making Trump look weak

But aside from Harris saying, “that’s not true,” or, “that’s a lie,” Harris usually doesn’t directly dispute any of the lies Trump tells. Often, she instead says things that suggest his incompetence

The effectiveness of this approach is clear: Rather than saying Trump’s manufactured version of truth was false — again, setting up a clear dispute and inviting Trump’s supporters to simply dismiss her as someone opposing him because she hates him — she instead demonstrated, over and over, Trump’s weakness.

That recognizes an important fact about the cult-like following Trump has created: So long as his followers believe his strength, they will believe what he says as an article of faith. They believe in him, and so believe what he says.

But they believe in him because they believe his pose of being strong…

It’s only after they step out of a belief system based on a false belief that Trump is strong will people listen to you.

This is why the debate was bad for Trump (though it remains to be seen what that means for the election). By making the debate about Trump’s character (such as it is), the bullshit becomes irrelevant. The debate becomes an argument about the kind of person Trump is. Very well done.

Links 9/17/24

Links for you. Science:

Legionella Found in Dozens of Locations in Manhattan Federal Building
Deciphering the gastrointestinal carriage of Klebsiella pneumoniae
Upending a longstanding paradigm, cardiologists embrace ZIP codes, not race, to predict heart risk
A decavalent composite mRNA vaccine against both influenza and COVID-19
Loss of bats to lethal fungus linked to 1,300 child deaths in US, study says
Brazil’s ban on X: how scientists are coping with the cutoff

Other:

Gaffes and Zingers
Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris after presidential debate
Can’t Stop Won’t Stop
Community Based Network
Passing the Torch?
Kozmo-politan
I Believe Trump When He Says Kicking Immigrants Out Will Be A ‘Bloody Story’
The Chinchilla Expert
Trump’s real Project 2025 was written for him in Moscow by Vladimir Putin’s men
He Worked for a Law Firm Consulting on an Anti-Trans Supreme Court Case. Then We Asked About These Racist Posts
D.C. Police Searching for Man Who Sodomized Himself with a Cucumber (?!?)
Turnout matters, but Trump’s barely working to get out the vote
Bowser‘s ‘Bait and Switch’ on a Key Homelessness Program Leaves Advocates, Councilmembers Fuming
JD Vance’s anti-Haitian bigotry could cost Republicans the Senate
Trump and Vance Are Preparing For a Bloodbath: What their racist lie about immigrants eating pets is supposed to accomplish.
Better Fact Checking
You Want My Debate Takeaway? Harris Pitched A No-Hitter And They’re Eating The Dogs In Springfield
Trump finally admits it: He has no plan to replace Obamacare
Kamala Harris Directly Confronted The Trump Menace In Our Midst
Let’s Relive The Best And Worst Moments Of The Harris-Trump Presidential Debate
What’s become of The Times & Co.?
Neither Elon Musk Nor Anybody Else Will Ever Colonize Mars
Donald Trump Had a Really, Really Bad Debate
Trump is 78 and barely coherent. Where’s everyone who questioned Biden’s age and fitness?
Rank and Vile: The right’s troubled vision of masculinity
What’s really happening in Springfield?

Ungated audio of my American dream debate

Moderated by Bari Weiss, here it is.  I teamed with Katherine Mangu-Ward, vs. David Leonhardt and Bhaskar Sunkara.

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Wonderful vi

The speed of change in technology often appears to be the industry's defining characteristic. Nothing highlights that perception more than the recent and relentless march of AI advancements. But for as much as some things in technology change, many other things stay the same. Like vi!

vi is a programming text editor that was created by Bill Joy before computers even had real graphical interfaces, back in 1976. Just five years after the first microprocessor, the Intel 4004. In computing terms, we might as well be talking about ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs here. It's that old.

But it's fundamental design, splitting insert mode from command mode, remains unchanged in its modern successors, like Vim and Neovim. In fact, the entire vi ethos of maximizing programmer productivity by minimizing keystrokes has carried forward all these years with remarkably little distortion. In 1976, most computers didn't even have a mouse. In 2024, most vi-successor users don't even need one when programming. 

That's kinda incredible! That I can sit here, almost half a century after Bill Joy first gave birth to vi, and enjoy the same quirky style of text editing to make modern web apps in 2024. It's not why I use Neovim, but it sure does make it feel extra special.

The other reason it feels special is that vi makes turns manipulating text into a key-based form of Street Fighter. Sure, you can have fun just learning the basic buttons for punching and kicking, but the game unlocks an entirely new dimension the moment you pull off your first hadoken — a fireball move done by making a half circle with the joystick followed by a punch. And now you're off to learn all the special moves followed by techniques for stringing them together into combos.

That's what pulling a "ciq" in Neovim feels like. It stands for "Change Inside Quotes". So say you're in the middle of a line of code like this: "puts 'Hello<cursor> World'". With that cursor placed after the "Hello", the "ciq" move will select all the text inside the quotes ("Hello World"), remove it, and place your cursor right after the opening quotes, ready to write something new. That's pretty magic!

And it just goes on and on from there. You can use "dab" to "Delete Around Brackets", which is great when you want to remove all the parameters used for a method at the end of a line in Ruby. Or what about "vii" to "(Visually) Select Inside [the current level of] Indention", so you have the entire body of a method highlighted, ready for overwriting with a paste or copying or cutting. Or just "yiw" which copies the current word your cursor is on, regardless of where in the word it is, and copies it to the clipboard.

There's an astounding number of combos like these available in Neovim (and the other vi flavors). But now you're probably thinking: how could anyone possibly remember all that? Which brings me to the real wonder of vi: It's not just an editor, it's a language for editing. Once you learn the basic grammar of vi text manipulation, and you learn a few actions, scopes, and objects, you can string it all together in any combination possible.

Here's the structure: [Action] [Scope] [Object]. I've already given you four actions in the examples above: change, select, delete, and copy. And there are only two primary scopes: inside and around. And we've looked at four different objects: quotes, brackets, indention, and word. There's your language.

yaq = Copy (yank) Around Quotes
diw = Delete Inside Word
vab = Select (visually) Around Brackets

See how it's starting to make sense? Now let's add one more move to the combo, which is a count. So you can also do:

3cw = Change Three Words
4dd = Delete Four Lines
10j = Jump Ten Lines

There's more to learning the vi command mode than just this, but to me, this is where the magic is. The language of text manipulation. The action-scope-object grammar. It's when that clicks that the combo stringing begins, and your dopamine starts flowing.

It's just uniquely satisfying to string a handful of these combos together and see the text beneath you radically manipulated. In a way you just know would have been a drag to do in any other editor. That's the game-like joy of vi's power moves.

Now all of this still comes with quite some learning curve, of course. On top of the text manipulation, there's a bunch of basic navigation keystrokes to learn, but I think you ought to start with the basic grammar explained above. That's the fun bit, that's the addictive bit.

And if this appetizer has you hungry for more, I'd start by installing Neovim using the superb LazyVim distribution. Neovim from scratch is like climbing Mount Everest without oxygen. If all you're interested in at first is a peek at the view, book that LazyVim helicopter tour before bothering the sherpas. Then checkout the excellent Vim and Neovim tutorials available on Youtube from the likes of ThePrimeagan and Typecraft, along with Elijah Manor's LazyVim introduction.

You can run Neovim on any operating system, but it works better if you're using a modern, fast terminal like Alacritty or Kitty. I personally use Alacritty and Neovim together with the multi-pane terminal enhancement Zellij. The entire package is configured out of the box in Omakub, if your adventurous spirit should extend to a trip into Linux. But you absolutely don't need to run Linux to enjoy Neovim. It's great on both Mac and Windows too.

So that's it. That's my testimony to what a wonderful experience it's been adopting Neovim. It certainly wasn't without some frustration (like figuring out how to do my own snippets!!), and it's not without some sadness that I've given up on my beloved TextMate editor, but I can comfortably say, after running this stack since February, that it feels like home now. A combo-smashing, hadoken-wielding home. And it's awesome.

May vi reign for another fifty years and beyond!

SpaceX launches European Commission’s Galileo satellites on Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral

A Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, carrying a pair of Galileo navigation satellites. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

SpaceX launched the latest pair of Galileo spacecraft for the European Union’s navigation satellite constellation.

The mission marked the second time that Galileo satellites will launch from U.S. soil, following the so-called L12 mission, which flew on another Falcon 9 rocket back in April 2024. Liftoff of the L13 mission from pad 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station happened at 6:50 p.m. EDT (2250 UTC).

Deployment occurred a little more than 3.5 hours after liftoff.

Heading into the launch opportunity, the 45th Weather Squadron forecast just a 40 percent chance of favorable weather at liftoff. The booster recovery weather risk was also noted as “moderate” on a scale of low-moderate-high.

“Several factors are in play for the weather this week. Primarily an area of low pressure spinning off the southeast U.S. coastline will gradually move onshore near South Carolina by Tuesday afternoon,” meteorologists wrote. “This circulation pattern, along with several waves of upper-level vorticity will help generate convergent bands of clouds and associated showers rotating through most of Florida into Tuesday.

“Additionally, expect west coast seabreeze convection to make its way across Florida nearing the spaceport Tuesday afternoon further enhancing possibilities for showers and thunderstorms.”

A Falcon 9 rocket soars above Florida’s Space Coast on the Galileo L13 mission for the European Union Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA) on behalf of the EU. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

The Falcon 9 first stage booster supporting this mission, tail number B1067 in the SpaceX fleet, launched for a 22nd time. It previously supported two astronaut missions to the International Space Station (Crew-3 and Crew-4), two cargo mission to the ISS (CRS-22 and CRS-25) and 12 Starlink missions.

About 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1067 landed on the SpaceX droneship, ‘Just Read the Instructions.’ This was a departure from the flight profile when SpaceX launched Galileo satellites back in April.

“During the Galileo L12 mission earlier this year, the Falcon 9 booster was expended to provide the additional performance needed to deliver the payload to its orbit,” SpaceX wrote on its website prior to launch. “Data from that mission informed subtle design and operational changes, including mass reductions and trajectory adjustments, that will allow us to safely recover and reuse this booster.”

A closeup of the nine Merlin engines at the base of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket as it begins to rise off of the pad at Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. The launch on Sept. 17, 2024, supported the Galileo L13 launch for the European Commission. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

While SpaceX said it fully was intent on recovering B1067, the company hedged its bets ahead of liftoff.

“The booster reentry trajectory will result in higher heating and dynamic pressure on the booster than many of our historical landings. Although the reentry conditions are on the higher end of past missions, they are still acceptable,” SpaceX wrote before launch. “This landing attempt will test the bounds of recovery, giving us valuable data on the design of the vehicle in these elevated entry conditions.

“This in turn will help us innovate on future vehicle designs to make our vehicles more robust and rapidly reusable while expanding into more challenging reentry conditions.”

Galileo expansion

The Galileo satellites designated FOC FM26 & FM32 are managed and operated by the European Union Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA) on behalf of the EU. The FOC designation refers to the Full Operational Capability series of satellites. Despite the designations, these will be the 31st and 32nd satellites launched to be part of the operational constellation.

Earlier this month, the EUSPA confirmed that the L12 satellites completed on-orbit commissioning and officially joined the constellation on Sept. 5. The satellites are in medium Earth orbit about 23,200 km (14,416 mi.) above Earth.

“These two new satellites strengthen Galileo’s position as the world’s most accurate positioning system,” said EUSPA Executive Director Rodrigo da Costa in a statement. “With the European Commission, EUSPA and ESA collaborating closely, Galileo goes beyond just satellites; it stands as proof of our united dedication to innovation, security, and progress. Each addition not only improves availability and navigation robustness for over 4 billion users but also reinforce new market opportunities for European businesses, SMEs, and entrepreneurs.”

The satellites each weigh 2.3 tons (4,600 lbs.) and have an expected 15-year lifespan, according to manufacturer, Airbus.

The Galileo Second Generation satellites will be launched in pairs, interconnected and connected to the launcher until separation. Each satellite is over 2000 kg and when stacked, they reach a towering height of seven meters. This configuration has undergone vibration tests at ESA’s Hydraulic Multi-axis Shaker (Hydra) and received mechanical qualification. Image: ESA

Mexico political challenge of the day

When Mexicans arrive at voting booths next year to elect their judges for the first time, they face a unique and daunting task.

In the capital Mexico City, voters will have to choose judges for more than 150 positions, including on the Supreme Court, from a list of 1,000 candidates that most people have never heard of. For each of the 150 posts, space will be allotted for voters to write out individually the names of up to 10 preferred candidates.

Without makeshift solutions such as dividing up the judges into subdistricts, it could take 45 minutes just to fill in the ballot papers, one analyst estimated. Even with such fixes, voters will still have to choose from many dozens of unfamiliar names.

“It’s impossible,” said Jaime Olaiz-González, a constitutional theory professor at Mexico’s Universidad Panamericana. “In no country, not even the most backward, have they proposed a system like this.” The vote will be the culmination of a drive by the country’s leftwing nationalist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, to radically overhaul a branch of the state that has frequently angered him by blocking his plans.

Here is more from Christine Murray from the FT.  Garett Jones…telephone!

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Remotely Exploding Pagers

Wow.

It seems they all exploded simultaneously, which means they were triggered.

Were they each tampered with physically, or did someone figure out how to trigger a thermal runaway remotely? Supply chain attack? Malicious code update, or natural vulnerability?

I have no idea, but I expect we will all learn over the next few days.

EDITED TO ADD: I’m reading nine killed and 2,800 injured. That’s a lot of collateral damage. (I haven’t seen a good number as to the number of pagers yet.)

EDITED TO ADD: Reuters writes: “The pagers that detonated were the latest model brought in by Hezbollah in recent months, three security sources said.” That implies supply chain attack. And it seems to be a large detonation for an overloaded battery.

This reminds me of the 1996 assassination of Yahya Ayyash using a booby trapped cellphone.

EDITED TO ADD: I am deleting political comments. On this blog, let’s stick to the tech and the security ramifications of the threat.

EDITED TO ADD (9/18): More explosions today, this time radios. Good New York Times explainer. And a Wall Street Journal article. Clearly a physical supply chain attack.

EDITED TO ADD (9/18): Four more good articles.

Python Developers Targeted with Malware During Fake Job Interviews

Interesting social engineering attack: luring potential job applicants with fake recruiting pitches, trying to convince them to download malware. From a news article

These particular attacks from North Korean state-funded hacking team Lazarus Group are new, but the overall malware campaign against the Python development community has been running since at least August of 2023, when a number of popular open source Python tools were maliciously duplicated with added malware. Now, though, there are also attacks involving “coding tests” that only exist to get the end user to install hidden malware on their system (cleverly hidden with Base64 encoding) that allows remote execution once present. The capacity for exploitation at that point is pretty much unlimited, due to the flexibility of Python and how it interacts with the underlying OS.

Communal Luxury: The Public Bathhouse

Image: Bathhouse built on top of a hot pool, Taiwan. Photo from early 19th century, public domain.
Image: Bathhouse built on top of a hot pool, Taiwan. Photo from early 19th century, public domain.

No Running Water at Home

For people in industrial societies, few activities demand more privacy than washing and grooming the body. We usually do it alone, in our private bathrooms, with locked doors. Seen in a historical context, that is unusual. Bathing in the presence of others has been the rule rather than the exception. As late as the first half of the twentieth century, many households, even in the most advanced industrial societies, did not have running water at home, let alone a private bathroom. 1

A bathroom requires a domestic water supply, but also a sewer drain, and an energy source to heat the water. Of course, it’s possible to have a hot bath at home without these infrastructures. Ever since Antiquity, the rich have built private baths in their houses. Most often, they could do that because less well-off people - either servants or slaves - filled and emptied their bathtubs with bucketloads of water and collected firewood to heat them.

However, for most people, it was more practical to take their bodies to the water rather than the other way around. For some, that meant bathing in rivers, lakes, and springs. For others, especially in urban environments, it meant visiting the public bathhouse.

Image: Bathhouse in Aachen Germany, by Jan Luyken, 1682.
Image: Bathhouse in Aachen Germany, by Jan Luyken, 1682.

Is Bathing Unsustainable?

Modern bathing practices are a textbook example of an unsustainable lifestyle based on fossil fuels. Hot water production is the second largest energy use in many homes (after space heating and/or cooling), and much of it is used for bathing or showering. 2 The modern bathroom also uses a lot of water and adds extra energy use through space heating and waste-water treatment. Building and renovating bathrooms requires resources, too.

Sustainability advocates follow two strategies to address these problems. The first strategy concentrates on technological solutions, such as low-flow showerheads, water boilers heated by solar collectors, waste-water heat recovery systems, and greywater recycling. The second strategy counts on behavioral or social changes by questioning modern standards of cleanliness: bathing or showering shorter and less frequently, taking cold showers, or doing a cat wash at the sink. 23

These strategies are unlikely to bring much results. Many technological fixes are difficult or impossible to install in existing buildings, especially in cities. For example, as the number of floors increases, an apartment building quickly runs out of roof space to install solar collectors for all residents. On the other hand, promoting discomfort as a sacrifice for sustainability is unlikely to engage broader environmental practices. 34

Communal bathing makes it easier to disconnect bathing practices from fossil fuels.

Communal bathing could be a third approach, but it’s rarely mentioned. That’s remarkable because, in terms of resource efficiency, it’s hard to beat. Building and operating a bathhouse for 1,000 people requires much less energy than building and operating 1,000 individual bathrooms. A public bathhouse is also more efficient concerning materials, money, and space. 5

Just as importantly, public bathing makes applying the sustainable technologies mentioned above more feasible. That further reduces energy consumption and makes it possible to disconnect bathing practices from fossil fuels. Finally, a public bathhouse can achieve significantly improved sustainability without promoting discomfort. On the contrary, pooling resources to build something for a community rather than for every household separately allows for a high level of sustainable extravagance. That may be an easier sell than cold showers.

Image: Public bathhouse in Dunkirk, France, opened in 1897.
Image: Public bathhouse in Dunkirk, France, opened in 1897.

Bathing in Rivers, Lakes, and Hot Springs

Nature has provided humans with bathing facilities through streams, rivers, pools, lakes, waterfalls, and rain showers. Humanity spent much time in tropical Africa, where bathing did not require artificially heated water for comfort. When we moved into colder climates, Nature presented us with another solution: hot springs. Many tens of thousands of thermal springs exist around the planet — only a few present-day countries lack them entirely. 67

Bathing in hot springs was common in ancient civilizations all over the world. However, it’s a practice that goes back even further in time. Archeological evidence abundantly shows that many prehistoric settlements established themselves near hot springs. 68 It’s impossible to prove rock solid that people used those waters for bathing, but why wouldn’t they, especially in cold regions? 9

Enjoying a hot bath is a practice that predates recorded history.

Today’s bathing culture relies on fossil fuels, but if we consider the historical context, enjoying a hot bath is not unsustainable. In the case of hot springs, the entire infrastructure and operation — water supply, drainage, and heat source — are already in place.

Our ancestors also invented the steam or sweat bath to take advantage of cold water in all seasons and climates. Rather than heating water, it heats people so they can bathe comfortably in cold water. The earliest steam huts, from prehistoric times, were little more than small log cabins or tent-like structures covered with woolen blankets or hides. 10111213

Painting: Bathing Place, oil on canvas, Paul Gauguin, 1886.
Painting: Bathing Place, oil on canvas, Paul Gauguin, 1886.

The Birth of the Bathhouse

Artificial bathing facilities made from brick or stone appeared around 4,000 years ago. 14 They could be an open-air pool, a bathhouse, or a private bathroom. Many bathhouses and bathing pools were built on top of natural hot springs, modifying the natural environment to make it more convenient, safe, and attractive.68 People also began to divert water into urban bathing facilities using canals, pipes, and aqueducts. They started building baths that used artificially heated water as well.

The Ancient Romans are most famously associated with the public bathhouse, although they took much inspiration from the Ancient Greeks. Greek bathhouses comprised rooms with individual hip baths against the walls. Sitting up straight, the bathers threw hot water over themselves or had this done by a servant. In contrast, Roman bathers shared the water in large bathtubs or pools. Both used steam baths as well. 15161718

At the height of the Empire, there were around 1,000 public baths in the city of Rome alone for a population of about 1 million people - one bathhouse per 1,000 people. 819 The most prominent bathhouses were the “thermae,” which could hold up to a few thousand people bathing at the same time. These facilities, which only appeared in the largest cities, were richly decorated with mosaics, marble floors and pools, granite columns, and statues. However, most Ancient Roman bathhouses were smaller neighborhood baths called “balnea.” 15

Image: Cross-section of the Baths of Diocletian by French architect Edmond Paulin, 1880. This bath complex was the largest of Ancient Rome, with a capacity of over 3,000 people.
Image: Cross-section of the Baths of Diocletian by French architect Edmond Paulin, 1880. This bath complex was the largest of Ancient Rome, with a capacity of over 3,000 people.

The Preindustrial Bathhouse

The public bathhouse’s history continues after the Roman Empire’s demise. In the East, the Roman bathhouse evolved into the hammam, which ditched the pools and concentrated more on sweating as a cleaning method.2021 After a sweat bath, people threw water over themselves. Reminiscent of the small Roman baths known as balnea, hammams spread in large numbers in all cities of the Islamic world as they facilitated bodily cleanliness and the accomplishment of body ablutions before praying. 22

In Western Europe, many Roman baths fell into disrepair. However, the public bathhouse returned in full swing during the late Middle Ages, when a new period of urbanization set in. 232425 In the 13th, 14th, and 15th centuries, a lot of European cities had a public bathhouse per 2,000 to 5,000 citizens.26 Many were steam baths inspired by the hammam. A second type of bathhouse offered wooden bathtubs to seat a small group of people. The medieval bathhouse was known as a “stew,” which refers to the oven that either heated water for the bathtubs or filled the room with steam. 2325

Image: A former medieval bathhouse, built in 1562, in Münden, Germany. Photo by Axel Hindemith (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Image: A former medieval bathhouse, built in 1562, in Münden, Germany. Photo by Axel Hindemith (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Image: The women&rsquo;s bathhouse, by Albrecht Dürer, 1496.
Image: The women's bathhouse, by Albrecht Dürer, 1496.
Painting: Rudas Baths, Ludwig Rohbock, 1850. The Rudas Baths in Budapest were built in 1550 and are still in operation.
Painting: Rudas Baths, Ludwig Rohbock, 1850. The Rudas Baths in Budapest were built in 1550 and are still in operation.

Northern Europe and Russia - never conquered by Roman or Islamic Empires - stuck to sweat and hot air baths. For example, public “banyas” existed in towns throughout Muscovy during the Middle Ages. 12 Asia also developed independent bathing cultures. For instance, in late medieval Japan, people shared private hot baths among families, neighbors, and friends for economic reasons. For these “cooperative baths” of mostly four to ten individuals, every bather brought a portion of firewood to heat the water. That practice evolved into larger public baths - “sento” - which experienced rapid growth from the fifteenth century onwards.2728

Image: Women taking a vapour bath. Wood engraving by Olaf Sörling.
Image: Women taking a vapour bath. Wood engraving by Olaf Sörling.
Image: Men in a Japanese bathhouse, early twentieth century. Image in the public domain.
Image: Men in a Japanese bathhouse, early twentieth century. Image in the public domain.

Bathing for Pleasure

Nowadays, sustainability advocates who promote shorter or less frequent showers implicitly regard bathing as a strictly utilitarian practice. However, for most of history, bathing was never just about hygiene. Apart from getting clean, people also visited public baths to relax, have fun, and socialize. Rather than a quick affair, the bathing process — no matter its form — often went on for hours. 1528

The Ancient Greeks sat together in individual bathtubs, having conversations, for which the space’s acoustics were optimally suited. 29 In Ancient Rome, public baths were places where people went almost daily to be seen, mingle, relax, gossip, dine, or play sports and study. Bathers accessed beauty treatments such as massages, shaving, hairdressing, and depilating. They celebrated parties and anniversaries and honored foreign guests. 1517192530

Rather than a quick affair, the bathing process — no matter its form — often went on for hours.

The medieval European bathhouse continued these traditions with less splendor but not necessarily with less revelry. In particular, medieval stews with wooden bathtubs were often a place of amusement that also furnished food, drink, music, and various types of bodily care. 23 In Japan, during the 16th century, public baths became places to gather and socialize, with large groups of people eating, drinking, and singing. 2728 River bathing, which continued around cities and in rural areas until the 20th century, was a kind of play in which swimming was a potential element. 31

At the same time, bathing was considered essential to prevent and cure diseases, following the Hippocratic ideas that people could maintain or restore the balance of bodily fluids by exposing the body to cold, hot, moist, or dry circumstances. The layout of preindustrial baths reflected these ideas, featuring pools and spaces of different temperatures. 1521

Image: Miniature drawing in &ldquo;De Sphaera Mundi&rdquo;, written by Johannes de Sacrobosco, circa 1230.
Image: Miniature drawing in "De Sphaera Mundi", written by Johannes de Sacrobosco, circa 1230.
Playing chess at the Széchenyi Baths in Budapest, Hungary, 1970s. Photo by Kereki Sándor. Found at Fortepan.
Playing chess at the Széchenyi Baths in Budapest, Hungary, 1970s. Photo by Kereki Sándor. Found at [Fortepan](https://fortepan.hu/hu/).

Communal Luxury

While these elements of pleasure, social interaction, and health continue today in mineral spas, there is a crucial difference with earlier bathing practices. The present-day spa is far too expensive to substitute for a private bathroom. In contrast, the historical public bathhouse was an egalitarian institution.

Roman public baths had no or low entrance fees and were open to everyone. There were no areas reserved for higher-ranking patrons. Combined with the splendid architecture and opulent decoration of the baths, this ensured that even the most humble servant would have a taste of luxury. 151719 These customs continued into the European Middle Ages and were shared by bathing cultures across the world. 23 For example, in Japan, the bathhouse aided in “slowly deconstructing the existing social hierarchy and created a new cultural flow between the elite and the commoners.” 2832

The only separation happened between men and women, and it was far from universal across space and time. They would either go to different bathhouses, occupy different sections, or share the same spaces at different times of the day or the week. 1215171923

Image: A sento in Japan. Photo by Stuart Gibson.
Image: A sento in Japan. Photo by [Stuart Gibson](https://stuartgibson.aminus3.com/portfolio/).

The Fuel Use of Roman Bathhouses

How sustainable was that communal luxury? Most research about the energy use of bathhouses concerns Ancient Roman baths. Historians have sometimes faulted the large bathhouses from the Empire for their wastefulness, arguing that their widespread use caused deforestation. 333435 However, in recent years, archeological research, thermal analysis, and heat transfer studies have made it increasingly clear that Ancient Roman bathhouses, in spite of their opulence, were remarkably energy-efficient buildings. 3633

The first reason was the hypocaust system. It consisted of one or more underground furnaces that distributed hot air under the floor and into the hollow walls (some baths had heated ceilings, too). Because of the large radiant surfaces, the spaces in the building could be heated at a lower temperature, saving energy. Although the water for the pools was reheated periodically in an insulated boiler close to the furnace, the heat in the floors and the walls helped to keep it warm for an extended period. 3633

A study of the Stabian Baths, one of the oldest surviving thermae, shows a fuel consumption of between 5 and 8 kg of firewood per hour, depending on the season. 3637 That corresponds to a wood supply of slightly more than 60 ash trees per year, which was unlikely to cause deforestation. 36 Firewood consumption was probably even lower because Roman baths routinely supplemented wood with other locally available fuels, often waste products: reeds, harvest by-products (olive pits, orchard trimmings, chaff), and animal wastes (dung and bones). 33

Many Roman baths were heated almost exclusively by solar energy on sunny days.

Following the same methodology, a study of a later bathing complex - the Forum Baths in Ostia - shows that the Romans continued improving their bathhouses’ energy efficiency. 3839 The Forum Baths were three times larger than the Stabian Baths - 923m2 versus 310m2 of heated spaces - but their calculated annual wood consumption is not even twice as high: roughly 100 trees per year. 3836 The newer bathhouse had thicker walls (two meters instead of one meter), as well as much larger glazed windows, which increased the share of solar radiation. 40 Earlier research has shown that the Forum baths were heated almost exclusively by solar energy on sunny days. 41

The studies above assume that the Romans heated their baths for 24 hours daily and only shut them down for maintenance. Roman bathhouses likely continued to be heated through the night, as it was more practical and energy-efficient. Many baths were open daily, and it could take a whole day to heat them from a cold state. In later centuries, medieval stews and hammams often used the heat or the ashes of the furnace to bake bread and other foods at night. 42 Hammams and medieval stews were less energy-efficient than Roman baths. Hammams had heated floors but no heated walls and few windows, while medieval stews often had none of these.

Image: The large windows of the Forum Baths. Image: Jan Theo Bakker.
Image: The large windows of the Forum Baths. Image: [Jan Theo Bakker](https://www.ostia-antica.org/regio1/12/12-6.htm).
Image: The hypocaust of the Great Baths complex, Ancient Dion. Imgae by Carole Raddato (CC BY-SA 2.0).
Image: The hypocaust of the Great Baths complex, Ancient Dion. Imgae by Carole Raddato (CC BY-SA 2.0).
Image: Historical Reconstruction of the Roman Baths in Weißenburg, Germany, using data from laser scan technology. Credit: CyArk. CC BY-SA 3.0
Image: Historical Reconstruction of the Roman Baths in Weißenburg, Germany, using data from laser scan technology. Credit: [CyArk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cyark_Weissenburg_Reconstruction.jpg#filelinks). CC BY-SA 3.0

Roman Bathhouse Versus Private Shower

How does the energy use of the Roman bathhouse compare to that of the modern shower? Academic research does not provide an answer, but a quick calculation shows that the Roman bathing experience, which lasted for hours, was more energy-efficient than the present-day private shower, which lasts, on average, 9 minutes. The daily energy use of the Forum baths corresponds to the daily energy use of 557 showers. 43 While we don’t know how many people visited the Forum Baths daily, they likely surpassed that number: the baths could host up to 500 bathers simultaneously. 44

The Roman bathing experience, which lasted for hours, was more energy-efficient than the present-day private shower, which lasts, on average, 9 minutes.

Furthermore, in the calculation above, the energy use for the shower only concerns water heating, while the fuel use for the public baths also - and mainly - includes space heating. 36 For example, assuming that the water in the pools of the Stabian baths was changed only once per day, heating the water accounted for less than 10% of the total energy use, corresponding to the energy use of only 52 showers. The low energy use for water heating is partly explained by the excellent thermal insulation of the heated floors and walls, meaning that space and water heating cannot be separated. However, it is also because the Romans shared the water in pools, while every shower requires freshly heated water.

The Roman bathhouse also compares favorably to the typical backyard sauna, for which the fuel consumption hovers between 5 and 15kg of firewood per session. 45 Only sixteen such sauna sessions require as much fuel as the Stabian baths used daily. The sauna has no heated floor and walls. Furthermore, historically, it was often built partly underground to save fuel, but nowadays, it’s usually a badly insulated building standing in a cold climate.

Image: Bathing sandals for women, Saudi Arabia. Heated floors of hammams were too hot to walk on barefoot. Source: Wereldmuseum (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Image: Bathing sandals for women, Saudi Arabia. Heated floors of hammams were too hot to walk on barefoot. Source: [Wereldmuseum](https://collectie.wereldmuseum.nl/) (CC BY-SA 4.0).

The Public Baths of the Industrial Revolution

Bathing practices have changed quite a lot since Roman and late medieval times, particularly in most of the Western world. Few of us will have the time or even the need to linger in a bathhouse for several hours daily, and some of us may feel uncomfortable bathing in public. 30 However, a bathhouse can also take a form more in line with modern bathing habits. The public bathhouse of the Industrial Revolution demonstrates this.

In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, cities received large numbers of immigrants who came to work in factories. Most of these people were housed in overcrowded tenement buildings without running water, leading to unsanitary conditions. 46 Recurring epidemics and new medical insights led to a “gospel of cleanliness” that resulted in a new wave of public bathhouses across the Western world. Many of these baths only disappeared between the 1950s and 1980s.

The public hygiene movement began in England and peaked there in the 1840s. By 1896, more than 200 municipalities in Britain were maintaining public baths. The English bathhouse emulated the splendor of Roman baths in its architecture and decoration: it was “large, handsome, and costly.” 46 However, it did not copy the Ancient bathing customs. It now reserved different sections of the bathhouse for different social classes. Furthermore, while the pools still provided social interaction, the bathtubs were now placed in individual compartments. Finally, the modern bathhouse instituted maximum time limits for using the pool and the bathtubs. 464748

Image: Nechelles public baths in Birmingham, England, 1910. Image by Oosoom (CC BY-SA 3.0).
Image: Nechelles public baths in Birmingham, England, 1910. Image by Oosoom (CC BY-SA 3.0).
Image: The restored interior of the Amalienbad in Vienna, Austria, built in 1926. It was one of the largest bathhouses in Europe at the time, holding up to 1,300 bathers simultaneously. The original roof could slide open in good weather. Image by Schwimmschule Steiner (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Image: The restored interior of the Amalienbad in Vienna, Austria, built in 1926. It was one of the largest bathhouses in Europe at the time, holding up to 1,300 bathers simultaneously. The original roof could slide open in good weather. Image by Schwimmschule Steiner (CC BY-SA 4.0).

The Shower Bathhouse

Germany, the first to follow the British on the continent, also built monumental bathhouses. 49 However, in the 1880s, Berlin physician Oscar Lasser argued that the large baths were too costly to build in the necessary numbers. He proposed the introduction of smaller bathhouses with nothing but showers in individual compartments. Until then, the shower was only attached to a bathtub or used in barracks and prisons, where soldiers and inmates were showered with cold water. 484625

The shower bathhouse became the dominant public bath type in most of Western Europe and also in North America, where the sanitary reform movement took off in the 1890s. 5051 It cleared away the last vestiges of the Ancient bathing culture by ditching the pools and switching to a more practical architecture. For better or worse, the public bathhouse from the Industrial Revolution was the “antithesis of the preindustrial bathhouse.” 47 Although bathers still made use of communal infrastructure, there was no more space for pleasure, social interaction, public nakedness, and social mixing.

For better or worse, the public bathhouse from the Industrial Revolution was the antithesis of the preindustrial bathhouse.

As the higher social classes gradually gained access to their private water supply and bathrooms, the public bath became increasingly associated with poverty. Although shower bathhouses did not have separate sections for different social classes, they were mainly built in low-income neighborhoods, aimed at the poor only. Bathers were led to their shower cubicle by an attendant, who opened the tap, decided on the water temperature, and started a timer. People had at most 20 minutes to undress, shower, and dress again.4647 “The poor had to be clean but not enjoy it too much.” 46

Image: The last bath attendant of a bathhouse in Haarlem, the Netherlands, in 1984. Image in the public domain.
Image: The last bath attendant of a bathhouse in Haarlem, the Netherlands, in 1984. Image in the public domain.
Bath and shower rooms equipped with timers in Amsterdam bathhouses, 1985. Source: Stadsarchief Amsterdam.
Bath and shower rooms equipped with timers in Amsterdam bathhouses, 1985. Source: [Stadsarchief Amsterdam](https://archief.amsterdam/beeldbank/detail/ca27031b-8e92-023a-eb42-461dc0cf6fd2/media/728f468c-3dca-91e3-0eb9-6dca39ea8130?mode=detail&view=horizontal&q=badhuis&rows=1&page=24).
Image: Shower cubicles in a municipal bathhouse in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Stadsarchief Amsterdam.
Image: Shower cubicles in a municipal bathhouse in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Stadsarchief Amsterdam.
Image: Boiler room of a municipal bathhouse in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 1985. Stadsarchief Amsterdam.
Image: Boiler room of a municipal bathhouse in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 1985. Stadsarchief Amsterdam.

Bring Back the Public Bathhouse?

In Europe and North America, the public bathhouse disappeared once everyone got their private bathroom - although we still bathe together in sports centers and continue using communal bathrooms in hostels or campings. The public bathhouse survives elsewhere but is in decline almost everywhere. For example, Cairo had only eight hammams in 2000, compared to more than seventy at the beginning of the 19th century.5253 In 1968, greater Tokyo boasted 2,687 public bathhouses. In 2022, only 462 were left. 5455

Historically, the bathhouse was born out of the need for efficiency: bathing was too resource-intensive to organize individually. That is no longer the case thanks to the advance of central infrastructures - fossil fuels, electricity, water supply, sewers. However, in the context of the present environmental crisis, the resource efficiency of the public bathhouse has become relevant once again. It’s a solution that could reduce energy use relatively quickly without the need for new technologies or sacrificing comfort. Resilience is another argument for the bathhouse. 56

Image: Municipal bathhouse at Javaplein in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Image: Stadsarchief Amsterdam.
Image: Municipal bathhouse at Javaplein in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Image: Stadsarchief Amsterdam.
Image: A former bathhouse in Flensburg, Germany. Image: 	VollwertBIT (CC BY-SA 2.5).
Image: A former bathhouse in Flensburg, Germany. Image: VollwertBIT (CC BY-SA 2.5).

What Type of Public Bathhouse Do We Want?

The metamorphosis of the public bath in the 19th and 20th centuries, which also affected public baths outside the Western world, presents a challenge to anyone wanting to revive public bathing for sustainability. What type of bathhouse do we want? Of course, the Roman bath and the shower bathhouse are both extremes, and many intermediate forms are imaginable. Nevertheless, any designer of a future bathhouse will have to make decisions that are likely to be controversial.

For example, one could argue that the shower bathhouse not only fits modern bathing practices but also maximizes resource efficiency. That is especially true when the government, rather than the bather, controls shower duration and water temperature. In that way, the public bathhouse could become a technology to enforce frugality upon the whole population. However, to put it mildly, such an approach is unlikely to generate enthusiasm for reviving public bathhouses. Neither does it do much to improve social interaction. 57

Any designer of a future bathhouse will have to make decisions that are likely to be controversial.

Advocating for the return of the preindustrial public bathhouse, which centers around social interaction and communal luxury, may be more successful in luring people away from their private bathrooms, but it also runs into obstacles. The public bathhouse has faced resistance for 2,000 years, mostly because of conflicting views about health and morals. 58 For example, concerns about debauchery and prostitution - real and imagined - run throughout the history of the bathhouse in all cultures. 59 Separating males and females does not fully address those worries.

Image: Scene of a bathhouse, c. 1470, painted by the Master of Anthony of Burgundy (Berlin Staatsbibliothek, Ms. Dep. Breslau 2, vol. 2, fol. 244).
Image: Scene of a bathhouse, c. 1470, painted by the Master of Anthony of Burgundy (Berlin Staatsbibliothek, Ms. Dep. Breslau 2, vol. 2, fol. 244).

Any plea for reviving public baths will also have to deal with the fear of contagious disease. For example, a “lockdown” of society, as many governments applied during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021, is incompatible with public bathhouses. Such a measure only works when everybody has a private bathroom. 60 The link between communal bathing and health is complex. Science has confirmed many of the health benefits of cold, hot, and steam baths and has also shown the importance of social interaction. However, bringing people together will always raise health risks, too.

How to Build a Low-tech Bathhouse?

There’s another distinction between bathhouses built before and after the Industrial Revolution: preindustrial baths worked with renewable fuels, while industrial baths ran on fossil fuels. Many modern bathhouses had an on-site coal power plant, which heated the space and the water and provided electricity for lighting. Fossil fuel-powered bathhouses are more energy efficient than fossil fuel-powered private bathrooms, but we can do better than that.

A large bathhouse heated by a hypocaust system and large windows is still hard to beat as a carbon neutral technology, at least based on sustainable wood production. 6162 However, biomass combustion creates air pollution, while we could also power a bathhouse with renewable energy sources that don’t have that problem. The most apparent solution for space and water heating is flat plate solar collectors in which the sun heats water. Heat-generating windmills are a low-tech alternative to solar thermal collectors in less sunny climates. 63 Other potential heat sources are geothermal energy and factory waste heat.

Fossil fuel-powered bathhouses are more energy efficient than fossil fuel-powered private bathrooms, but we can do better than that.

A solar or wind-powered bathhouse’s biggest drawback is its dependency on favorable weather conditions. To compensate for that, solar or wind power can be combined with thermal energy storage, such as insulated water tanks. Storing heat in a thermal mass for longer periods is much cheaper and more sustainable than storing electricity in chemical batteries. However, it requires space that only communal bathing can offer. Steam baths and saunas are more difficult to disconnect from biomass combustion, but some innovative examples exist. 64

Clustering bathing facilities in a shared infrastructure also creates sufficient space for a bathhouse to have extensive heat insulation (a decisive factor in energy consumption) and provide for its water supply (for example, by catching and storing rainwater) as well as wastewater treatment (for example through phytoremediation using plants).

Architects have applied some of these ideas in countries where public baths are still used. For example, in a mountain village in China, a community bathhouse for 5,000 people is largely off-the-grid, pumping up its water from a well, heating it with solar collectors, and filtering the run-off wastewater from the showers and the toilets in basins filled with bamboo plants. 65

Image: This bathhouse in China has 24 showers and serves a community of 5,000 residents. It recycles the waste-water with bamboo plants. Source: BAO Architects.
Image: This bathhouse in China has 24 showers and serves a community of 5,000 residents. It recycles the waste-water with bamboo plants. Source: BAO Architects.

However, a public bathhouse also fits the more high-tech vision of a centralized energy infrastructure based on solar PV panels and wind turbines that provide electricity. In such a configuration, public bathhouses could absorb excess electricity during abundantly sunny or windy days. Rather than curtailing the electricity from surplus solar and wind power, we could use it to power electric heat pumps and store the heat in the thermal mass of public baths. 66 While this approach is less resource-efficient than off-grid bathhouses operating without electricity, it still beats a scenario in which a centralized renewable power grid supplies energy to many private bathrooms.

Kris De Decker

Many thanks to Jonas Görgen and Elizabeth Shove for their feedback on an earlier version of this article.

Marie Verdeil and Roel Roscam Abbing contributed to the selection of images.


  1. The spread of water supply and sewer networks took a lot of time, especially in older European cities. Before 1900, only the most expensive Paris flats had a bathroom. 26 Plumbed-in private baths appeared in the wealthiest British households in the 1860s. Still, it was not until the 1950s that working-class homes were routinely supplied with hot and cold running water. 3 In the newer cities of the USA, installing a water supply and sewer infrastructure was easier. From the 1870s, American plumbing outstripped that of every other country. More than half of all American houses had a complete bathroom in 1940. For comparison, in the whole of France, only one house or apartment in ten had a shower or bath in 1954. 20 ↩︎

  2. Mist Showers: Sustainable Decadence?, Kris De Decker, Low-tech Magazine, 2019. https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2019/10/mist-showers-sustainable-decadence/ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  3. Pickerill, Jenny. “Cold comfort? Reconceiving the practices of bathing in British self-build eco-homes.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers 105.5 (2015): 1061-1077. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00045608.2015.1060880 ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  4. The trend is towards more and longer showers 2 and more, larger and more luxurious private bathrooms. For example, more than one-third of new single-family homes in the US had three or more bathrooms in 2021, compared to “only” a quarter in 2005. Source: Number of Bathrooms in New Homes in 2021, Jesse Wade, National Association Of Home Builders, November 2022. https://eyeonhousing.org/2022/11/number-of-bathrooms-in-new-homes-in-2021/ ↩︎

  5. How much water public bathing can save depends on how exactly people bathe together. Shared pools and bathtubs bring water savings, but individual showers and bathtubs do not, even if placed in a communal space. ↩︎

  6. Erfurt, Patricia. “Hot springs throughout history. The Geoheritage of hot springs.” Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. 119-182. ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  7. Tamburello, Giancarlo, et al. “Global thermal spring distribution and relationship to endogenous and exogenous factors.” Nature Communications 13.1 (2022): 6378. ↩︎

  8. Cataldi, Raffaele, Susan F. Hodgson, and John W. Lund. Stories from a heated earth: our geothermal heritage. No. 19. Nicholson, 1999. ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  9. Even some animals - like snow monkeys and capybaras - are known to enjoy bathing in hot springs. See, for example: Matsuzawa, Tetsuro. “Hot-spring bathing of wild monkeys in Shiga-Heights: origin and propagation of a cultural behavior.” Primates 59.3 (2018): 209-213. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10329-018-0661-z.pdf↩︎

  10. Sonntag, C. F. “The History of Baths and Bathing in Britain before the Norman Conquest.” Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine 13.sect_hist_med (1920): 25-46. ↩︎ ↩︎

  11. Aaland, Mikkel. “Sweat: The illustrated history and description of the Finnish sauna, Russian bania, Islamic hammam, Japanese mushi-buro, Mexican temescal and American Indian & Eskimo sweat lodge.” (1978). ↩︎

  12. Pollock, Ethan. Without the banya we would perish: a history of the Russian bathhouse. Oxford University Press, USA, 2019. ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  13. The first written reference to the steam bath dates back to the fifth century BC, when Greek historian Herodotus compared the Scythian sweat bath north of the Black sea to the Greek steam bath of his time. However, it’s very likely that its origins go back to prehistoric times. Not surprisingly, the steam bath and the hot air bath initially spread in regions with cold and long winters: northwestern Europe, Russia, Alaska, and Canada. It was also used by Native Americans, and spread to Central and South America as well. 10 ↩︎

  14. One of the earliest archeological records of human-made bathing facilities dates back to around 2300 BC in what is now Pakistan. The inhabitants of Mohenjo-daro, the probable capital of the Indus civilization, built wells and drainage systems allowing for private bathrooms in most residential buildings, as well as a large, communal bathing pool. The private bathrooms had a 1m2 shallow platform, where people threw buckets of water over themselves. The “Great Bath” was a brick basin with steps on either side and a capacity for 160 m3 of water. As the city was located in a hot desert climate, there was no need for heating the water. Sources: Graeber, David, and David Wengrow. The dawn of everything: A new history of humanity. Penguin UK, 2021 + Jansen, Michael. “Mohenjo-Daro, Indus Valley civilization: water supply and water use in one of the largest Bronze Age cities of the third millennium BC.” Geo: A new world of knowledge (2011). https://openarchive.icomos.org/id/eprint/1541/1/110601geo_06_2011_indian_edition_email.pdf ↩︎

  15. Maréchal, Sadi. Public baths and bathing habits in Late Antiquity: a study of the archaeological and historical evidence from Roman Italy, North Africa and Palestine between AD 285 and AD 700. Diss. Ghent University, 2016. https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/7235534/file/7235545.pdf ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  16. Fagan, Garrett G. “The genesis of the Roman public bath: recent approaches and future directions.” American Journal of Archaeology 105.3 (2001): 403-426. ↩︎

  17. Kosso, Cynthia, and Anne Scott, eds. The nature and function of water, baths, bathing, and hygiene from antiquity through the Renaissance. Vol. 11. Brill, 2009. ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  18. Both the Greeks and the Romans also used cold baths in combination with sports facilities. Here, the act of washing was secondary. 1519 ↩︎

  19. Hoagland, Alison K. The bathroom: a social history of cleanliness and the body. Bloomsbury Publishing USA, 2018. ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  20. Ashenburg, Katherine. The dirt on clean: An unsanitized history. Vintage Canada, 2010. ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  21. Fournier, Caroline. Les bains d’al-Andalus: VIIIe-XVe siècle. Presses universitaires de Rennes, 2018. https://books.openedition.org/pur/44617#anchor-resume ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  22. Sibley, Magda, Camilla Pezzica, and Chris Tweed. “Eco-hammam: the complexity of accelerating the ecological transition of a key social heritage sector in Morocco.” Sustainability 13.17 (2021): 9935 ↩︎

  23. Coomans, Janna. “Janna Coomans - The Medieval Bathhouse (MA Thesis - 2013).” The Medieval Bathhouse: Bathing Culture in the Late Medieval Low Countries (2013): n. pag. Print. ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  24. Wurtzel, Ellen. “Passionate Encounters, Public Healing: Medieval Urban Bathhouses in Northern France.” French Historical Studies 46.3 (2023): 331-360. https://read.dukeupress.edu/french-historical-studies/article/46/3/331/381254/Passionate-Encounters-Public-HealingMedieval-Urban ↩︎ ↩︎

  25. Büchner, Robert. Im städtischen Bad vor 500 Jahren: Badhaus, bader und Badegäste im alten Tirol. Böhlau, 2014. ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  26. Thirteenth century Paris, with 200,000 inhabitants, counted around 30 public bathhouses 2324, while 14th century London, with a population of 80,000, had at least 18 public baths. 20 In the late 14th century Low Countries, Bruges (30,000 inhabitants) and Ghent (40,000 inhabitants) each had around twenty public baths, while smaller cities like Maastricht and Leuven (15,000 inhabitants) had around five. Vienna (Austria) counted 29 bathhouses in the fifteenth century. 23 Medieval bathhouses, like hammams, were smaller than Roman baths. Medieval stews found in Germany and the Low Countries had a ground surface of between 100 and 200 square meters. 23 The typical roman city bath had a surface of about 500 m2. 15 ↩︎ ↩︎

  27. Butler, Lee. “Washing Off the Dust”: Baths and Bathing in Late Medieval Japan." Monumenta Nipponica 60.1 (2005): 1-41. https://web.archive.org/web/20190818120651id_/http://muse.jhu.edu:80/article/182356/pdf ↩︎ ↩︎

  28. Merry, Adam M., “More Than a Bath: An Examination of Japanese Bathing Culture” (2013). CMC Senior Theses. Paper 665. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/665 ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  29. Gill, A. A. ““Chattering” in the Baths: The Urban Greek Bathing Establishment and Social Discourse in Classical Antiquity.” (2011). https://tobias-lib.ub.uni-tuebingen.de/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10900/61481/CD27_Gill_CAA2008.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y ↩︎

  30. Górnicka, Barbara. Nakedness, shame, and embarrassment: A long-term sociological perspective. Vol. 12. Springer, 2016. ↩︎ ↩︎

  31. A Cultural History of Parson’s Pleasure, George Townsend, PhD, Birkbeck, University of London, 2022, unpublished. See also: Dive in! A history of river swimming in Oxford. Museum of Oxford, expo 2023. https://moxdigiexhibits.omeka.net/exhibits/show/dive-in#:~:text=Dive%20In!-,A%20history%20of%20river%20swimming%20in%20Oxford,places%20for%20bathing%20and%20swimming↩︎

  32. The egalitarian nature of the public bath was reinforced by the fact that people were partly or completely naked. “One stripped not only of their clothes but also of their social rank and material wealth, which become largely invisible”, concludes a historian of the Japanese public bath. 28 “The true collective is a naked collective”, observes another, referring to the Russian banya. Source: Gearsimova, A. “My Banya, Your Banya: From Reality to Myth.” (2016). ↩︎

  33. Mietz, Michael. “The fuel economy of public bathhouses in the Roman Empire.” Master’s thesis, Ghent University, Faculty of Arts and Philosophy, Campus Boekentoren, Blandijnberg 2 (2016): 9000. https://libstore.ugent.be/fulltxt/RUG01/002/303/996/RUG01-002303996_2016_0001_AC.pdf ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  34. Wilson, A (2012) Raw materials and energy, in “The cambridge companion to the roman economy, scheidel 2012. ↩︎

  35. Ancient deforestation revisited, Journal of the history of biology, 44 (1), 43-57. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/J-Donald-Hughes/publication/45407393_Ancient_Deforestation_Revisited/links/08ce17d911d2244431641d70/Ancient-Deforestation-Revisited.pdf ↩︎

  36. Miliaresis, Ismini. “Heating the Stabian Baths at Pompeii.” Curious (2021): 83. https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/58973/1/external_content.pdf#page=91 ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  37. The study assumes that the baths were heated for 24 hours per day and only shut down for maintenance. The fuel used for heating up the bath initially (calculated at 35 kg in the case of the Stabian Baths) is added only once to the total yearly energy use. The results are also based on the assumption that the water of the baths was changed once per day (and thus had to be heated from a cold state once per day). ↩︎

  38. Veal, Robyn, and Victoria Leitch. Fuel and Fire in the Ancient Roman World: Towards an integrated economic understanding. McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, 2019. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/c349fc20-11d0-4ad4-a2e9-55dccca9f2df/download ↩︎ ↩︎

  39. Miliaresis, Ismini Alexandra. Heating and Fuel Consumption in the Terme del Foro at Ostia. Diss. University of Virginia, 2013. https://libraetd.lib.virginia.edu/public_view/5d86p0445 ↩︎

  40. Whether or not the (small) windows in the Stabian baths had glass or shutters is not entirely clear. The study concludes that energy use is pretty similar with both glazed and unglazed windows. However, the Forum baths, with windows several meters high, would have required almost 1.5 times more wood to heat rooms with unglazed windows during the month of May, and more than twice as much in the coldest month. ↩︎

  41. Ring, James W. “Windows, baths, and solar energy in the Roman empire.” American Journal of Archaeology 100.4 (1996): 717-724. ↩︎

  42. This may have been true for Roman bathhouses as well, but I could not find any reference to it. For hammamns, see, for example: Sibley, Magda, and Martin Sibley. “Hybrid transitions: combining biomass and solar energy for water heating in public bathhouses.” Energy Procedia 83 (2015): 525-532. ↩︎ ↩︎

  43. A fuel use of 7.5 to 12 kg/hr averages at 9.75 kg/hr, which corresponds to 234 kg firewood per day. One kg of wood contains roughly 5 kWh of thermal energy, which brings the daily fuel use of the Forum baths to 1,170 kWh. A shower of 8.9 minutes (the average in the netherlands) takes 2.1 kWh of thermal energy. 2 Conclusion: the daily energy use of the Forum Baths equals that of 557 showers. The daily fuel use of the smaller and less energy efficient Stabian baths corresponds to the energy use of 378 showers. ↩︎

  44. Brünenberg–Jens-Arne, Monika Trümper–Clemens, et al. “Stabian Baths in Pompeii. New Research on the Development of Ancient Bathing Culture.” (2019). https://www.academia.edu/download/67567783/Truemper_et_al._Stabian_Baths_RM_2019.pdf ↩︎

  45. The energy use of a sauna is more variable than the energy use of a shower, and I could not find any reliable academic research. The data I use are a rough estimation based on numbers that I found on internet forums and websites. Also note that climate explains part of the difference in energy efficiency: the sauna is often located in a cold climate, while most Roman baths stood around the Mediterranean. ↩︎

  46. Williams, Marilyn T. Washing” the great unwashed": public baths in urban America, 1840-1920. Ohio State University Press, 1991. https://kb.osu.edu/bitstream/handle/1811/6282/1/Washing_the_Great_Unwashed.pdf ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  47. Dillon, Jennifer Reed. Modernity, sanitation and the public bath: Berlin, 1896–1933, as archetype. Duke University, 2007. https://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/bitstreams/33e2fe84-16ec-4044-91d6-75d5c87d37e3/download ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎

  48. Ladd, Brian K. “Public baths and civic improvement in nineteenth-century German cities.” Journal of urban history 14.3 (1988): 372-393. ↩︎ ↩︎

  49. The Stuttgart Bathhouse, for example, had two large pools, 300 dressing rooms, 102 bath tubs, two Russian-Roman baths, two cold water baths, a sun bath, and a bath for dogs. By the end of the century, almost every German city had erected at least one monumental bathhouse, which often included a restaurant and barber shop as well. 2546 ↩︎

  50. New York City built 25 monumental bathhouses, and Boston included swimming pools and gymnasiums. However, other American cities exclusively built shower bathhouses for the poor classes. For example, by 1920, Chicago had erected more than twenty shower bathhouses throughout the poor and working class districts. 46 ↩︎

  51. Germany and Austria built shower bathhouses in poor neighbourhoods but also continued to build elaborate and expensive facilities for the higher social classes, many of them having a water supply but still lacking bathrooms. 46 ↩︎

  52. Talmisānī, Mayy, and Eve Gandossi. The last hammams of Cairo: a disappearing bathhouse culture. American Univ in Cairo Press, 2009. ↩︎

  53. Damascus went down from 40 hammams in the 1940s to 13 in 2004. Source: Sibley, Magda. “The Historic hammāms of Damascus and Fez: lessons of sustainability and future developments.” The 23rd conference on passive and low energy architecture (PLEA). 2006. https://www.academia.edu/download/52232181/The_Historic_Hammms_of_Damascus_and_Fez_20170321-32624-5s2lbk.pdf Morocco is an exception. Various sources present different numbers for operating hammams which vary between 6,000 and 10,000 hammams that still operate using the traditional heating system. 42 ↩︎

  54. “Tokyo starts effort to revive public bathhouses”, Julian Ryall Tokyo, October 1, 2022. https://www.dw.com/en/japan-launches-campaign-to-revive-fading-public-bathhouses/a-63282747#:~:text=In%20an%20effort%20to%20protect,pop%20into%20their%20local%20bathhouse↩︎

  55. “Public baths fade from Tokyo, with nearly half gone over 15 years”, Natsumi Nakai, October 10, 2023. https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15025294#:~:text=Public%20bathhouses%20are%20swiftly%20disappearing,to%20the%20Tokyo%20metropolitan%20government↩︎

  56. “Fuel Crisis Forces Syrians to Use Public Baths”, Sputnik International, 2023. https://sputnikglobe.com/20230131/fuel-crisis-forces-syrians-to-use-public-baths-1106687250.html See also: “Aleppo bathhouse boom as Syria crisis turns showers cold”, Africanews, 2021. https://www.africanews.com/2021/12/30/aleppo-bathhouse-boom-as-syria-crisis-turns-showers-cold/ ↩︎

  57. “Why we need to bring back the art of communal bathing”. Jamie Mackay, Aeon Magazine, 2016. https://aeon.co/ideas/why-we-need-to-bring-back-the-art-of-communal-bathing ↩︎

  58. This is especially true in Western Europe, where opposition grew so strong that the bathhouse eventually disappeared in some regions between the sixteenth and the nineteenth century. 23 The reasons for the temporal demise of bathing in Western Europe - a unique event in world history - are controversial among historians. Some point to the pressure of the Catholic and Protestant church, who increasingly perceived the medieval stews as places of immorality and sin. 59 Others see the cause in epidemics, or point to changing medical views - doctors no longer considered hot water and steam healthy. 23 Opposition started even before organized religion appeared. Ancient Roman philosopher Seneca was critical of the larger Roman baths and wrote several rants against them. He complained about the noise in the thermae, and accused them of extravagance and hedonism. See, for example: Moral letters to Lucilius by Seneca. Letter 86. On Scipio’s villa. https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Moral_letters_to_Lucilius/Letter_86 ↩︎

  59. In Ancient Rome, some bathhouses allowed mixed bathing, while others separated male and female bathers. Prostitution was legal, but the fact that a man’s wife had bathed with other men was a legitimate reason for divorce. 15 In Muslim Spain, substantial fines were assessed to men who either slipped into the bathhouse on days assigned to women, or who were caught spying through the windows of the structure. Women risked their legal rights if they did the same. Abusing a woman in a bathhouse, even verbally, carried the death penalty. See: Powers, James F. “Frontier municipal baths and social interaction in thirteenth-century Spain.” The American Historical Review 84.3 (1979): 649.667. In the Low Countries during the middle ages, authorities distinguished “honest” from “dishonest” stews. To maintain the quality of the “honest” bathhouses, they abolished, mixed bathing, set rules for bathmaids, and made prostitution in the bathhouse illegal. 23 ↩︎ ↩︎

  60. There’s no doubt that public bathhouses were a vector in historical epidemics. Medical tracts even advised against visiting the bathhouse. However, almost all baths remained open, very likely because they were seen as a service too essential to withdraw. At least, that was the case in the medieval Low Countries and in the Roman Empire, see: 2321 ↩︎

  61. How to make biomass energy sustainable again? Kris De Decker, Low-tech Magazine, September 2020. https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2020/09/how-to-make-biomass-energy-sustainable-again/ ↩︎

  62. Moreover, the hypocaust was further improved in the middle ages, meaning that it could be made even more energy efficient than in Roman times. See: Heat storage hypocausts: air heating in the middle ages, Kris De Decker, Low-tech Magazine, March 2017. https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2017/03/heat-storage-hypocausts-air-heating-in-the-middle-ages/ ↩︎

  63. Heat your house with a mechanical windmill, Kris De Decker, Low-tech Magazine, February 2019. https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2019/02/heat-your-house-with-a-mechanical-windmill/ ↩︎

  64. For example, researchers at the University of Stuttgart have devised a hybrid storage system consisting of a pressurized water and steam tank that serves as a storage for solar energy. The steam can be released in a sauna anytime, while the water serves to heat the space. See: Schaefer, M., et al. “Development of a zero-energy-sauna: Simulation study of thermal energy storage.” Energy and Buildings 256 (2022): 111659. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378778821009439. A very low-tech example is “Solauna”, which works with solar heat alone, basically by building a very large and well-insulated solar box cooker. See: https://www.biopiscinas.pt/en/solar-sauna/. “Lytefire” creates heat and steam by sunlight from mirrors concentrated on a metal plate or a bag of stones. See: https://lytefiresauna.com/en↩︎

  65. See: https://www.designboom.com/architecture/bao-split-bathhouse/. Another example is a bathhouse in Eastern Iran, built in 2004, which runs on two solar collector fields (195 m2 total) and two thermally insulated storage tanks (3m3 each). The facility supplies hot water for twelve showers and four baths, serving the hot water demands of 150 people per day. Source: Azad, E. “Design, installation and operation of a solar thermal public bath in eastern iran.” Energy for Sustainable Development 16.1 (2012): 68-73. Researchers are also investigating the combined use of biomass furnaces and solar thermal collectors for hammams in Morocco. See: Krarouch, M., et al. “Simulation of floor heating in a combined solar-biomass system integrated in a public bathhouse located in Marrakech.” IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering. Vol. 353. No. 1. IOP Publishing, 2018. See also: Mohamed, Krarouch, and Haller Michel. “Design optimisation of a combined pellets and solar heating systems for water heating in a public bathhouse.” Energy Reports 6 (2020): 1628-1635. See also: Sibley, Magda, Camilla Pezzica, and Chris Tweed. “Eco-hammam: the complexity of accelerating the ecological transition of a key social heritage sector in Morocco.” Sustainability 13.17 (2021): 9935. See also: Zbaidi, Mourad, et al. “Improving the Energy Efficiency of a Traditional Hammam by Using Two Types of Heat Exchanger.” International Journal on Engineering Applications 11.6 (2023). ↩︎

  66. How (Not) to Run a Modern Society on Solar and Wind Power Alone, Kris De Decker, Low-tech Magazine, September 2017. https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2017/09/how-not-to-run-a-modern-society-on-solar-and-wind-power-alone/ See also: Battery Killers: Grid-Interactive Water Heaters, Kris De Decker, No Tech Magazine, May 2015. https://www.notechmagazine.com/2015/05/battery-killers-grid-interactive-water-heaters.html ↩︎

Google backs privately funded satellite constellation for wildfire detection

The Windy Fire blazes through the Long Meadow Grove of giant sequoia trees near The Trail of 100 Giants overnight in Sequoia National Forest on September 21, 2021, near California Hot Springs, California.

Enlarge / The Windy Fire blazes through the Long Meadow Grove of giant sequoia trees near The Trail of 100 Giants overnight in Sequoia National Forest on September 21, 2021, near California Hot Springs, California. (credit: David McNew/Getty Images)

Space is more accessible than ever thanks to the proliferation of small satellites and more affordable launch prices, which opened the door to bespoke applications like global pollution monitoring, crop observations, and new ways of collecting weather and climate data.

Now you can add wildfire detection to the list. Satellites have observed wildfires from space for decades, but a new initiative partially funded by Google's philanthropic arm aims to deploy more than 50 small satellites in low-Earth orbit to pinpoint flare-ups as small as a classroom anywhere in the world.

The FireSat constellation, managed by a nonprofit called Earth Fire Alliance (EFA), will be the first satellite fleet dedicated to detecting and tracking wildfires. Google announced a fresh investment of $13 million in the FireSat constellation Monday, building on the tech giant's previous contributions to support the development of custom infrared sensors for the FireSat satellites.

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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.88 million in August, down 1.8% from July’s preliminary pace and down 3.7% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a slightly larger YOY % decline, as there was one fewer business day this August compared to last August.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the existing single-family home sales price last month was up 3.5% from last August.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release August Existing Home Sales on Thursday, September 19th at 10 AM ET. The consensus is for 3.85 million SAAR, down from 3.95 million in July.
There is more in the article.

Tuesday assorted links

1. “About 27% of firms using AI report replacing worker tasks, but only about 5% experience employment change due to AI use.

2. Who is the greatest British novelist of all time?  You get to vote, too.

3. How far can Irvine (CA) go?

4. How and why drug traffickers are infiltrating Costa Rica (NYT).

5. Mr. Beast YouTube hiring and production guide.

6. Chinese do Mun vs. Ricardo, on trade, violent cartoon.

7. Recycled paper and cardboard possibly are bad for the chemical content that leeches away from them?

8. Every Anglo-Saxon name we know.

9. The best Haitian food in America — is it in Oregon?

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in September

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 41, up from 39 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Sentiment Rises as Rates Fall but Affordability Challenges Persist
With mortgage rates declining by more than one-half of a percentage point from early August through mid-September, per Freddie Mac, builder sentiment edged higher this month even as builders continue to grapple with rising costs.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 41 in September, up two points from a reading of 39 in August, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This breaks a string of four consecutive monthly declines.

“Thanks to lower interest rates, builders now have a positive view for future new home sales for the first time since May 2024,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “However, the cost of construction remains elevated relative to household budgets, holding back some enthusiasm for current housing market conditions. Moreover, builders will face competition from rising existing home inventory in many markets as the mortgage rate lock-in effect softens with lower mortgage rates.”

“With inflation moderating, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin a cycle of monetary policy easing this week, which will produce downward pressure on mortgage interest rates and also lower the interest rates on land development and home construction business loans,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Lowering the cost of construction is critical to confront persistent challenges for housing affordability.”

The latest HMI survey also revealed that the share of builders cutting prices dropped in September for the first time since April, down one point to 32%. Moreover, the average price reduction was 5%, the first time it has been below 6% since July 2022. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives fell to 61% in September, down from 64% in August.
...
ll three HMI indices were up in September. The index charting current sales conditions rose one point to 45, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased four points to 53 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 27.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell three points to 49, the Midwest edged one-point higher to 40, the South decreased one point to 41 and the West increased two points to 39.
emphasis added
NAHB HMI Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was slightly above the consensus forecast.

Industrial Production Increased 0.8% in August

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
In August, industrial production rose 0.8 percent after falling 0.9 percent in July. Similarly, the output of manufacturing increased 0.9 percent in August after decreasing 0.7 percent during the previous month. This pattern was due in part to a recovery in the index of motor vehicles and parts, which jumped nearly 10 percent in August after dropping roughly 9 percent in July. The index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts moved up 0.3 percent in August. The index for mining climbed 0.8 percent, while the index for utilities was flat. At 103.1 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in August was the same as its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up to 78.0 percent in August, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average
emphasis added
Capacity UtilizationClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.0% is 1.7% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was above consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 103.1. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

Retail Sales Increased 0.1% in August

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.1 percent from August 2023.

From the Census Bureau report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $710.8 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent from the previous month, and up 2.1 percent from August 2023. ... The June 2024 to July 2024 percent change was revised from up 1.0 percent to up 1.1 percent.
emphasis added
Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.1% in August.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.0% on a YoY basis.

Year-over-year change in Retail Sales The change in sales in August was slightly below expectations, however sales in June and July were revised up, combined.

Yale celebrates Vahideh Manshadi

Vahideh Manshadi is the Michael Jordan of Operations.

 Here's the announcement from Yale News:

Vahideh Manshadi appointed the Michael H. Jordan Professor of Operations. Manshadi investigates the operations of online and matching platforms, and studies algorithmic fairness.

"Vahideh Manshadi, who investigates the operations of online and matching platforms, and studies algorithmic fairness and inclusion has been named the Michael H. Jordan Professor of Operations, effective immediately.

...

"She has pioneered the study of emerging systems and platforms with societal impact, including crowdsourced food recovery, volunteer crowdsourcing, refugee resettlement, and organ allocation. She has collaborated with nationwide platform-based nonprofits, including Feeding America, Food Rescue US, VolunteerMatch, and national kidney exchange programs, and often impacted the practice of these organizations.

...

"She received her Ph.D. in electrical engineering at Stanford University, where she also received M.S. degrees in statistics and electrical engineering. Before joining Yale, she was a postdoctoral scholar at the MIT Operations Research Center."

Preparing for AI

AI is everywhere—we’re in a middle of a technology shift that’s as big (and possibly bigger) than the arrival of the web in the 1990s. Even though ChatGPT appeared almost two years ago, we still feel unprepared: we read that AI will change every job and we don’t know what that means or how to prepare.

Here are a few ideas about preparing for that shift. First, understand what AI can and can’t do—and in particular, understand what you can do better than AI. It’s frequently said that AI won’t take your job; but people who don’t use AI will lose their jobs to people who do. That’s true as far as it goes (and in a “blame the victim” sense)—but the real truth is that people who can’t add value to what AI can do are the ones who are in danger, whether they use AI or not. If you just reproduce AI results, you’re very replaceable.

How can you partner with AI to deliver better results than either you or AI could on your own? AI isn’t magic. It isn’t some superhuman intelligence, despite the pronouncements of a few billionaires who have a vested interest in convincing you to give up and let AI do everything—or to crawl into a shell because you’re scared of what AI can do. So, here are a few basic ideas about how you can be better than AI.

First, realize that AI is best used an assistant. It can give you a quick first draft of a report—but you can probably improve that report, even if writing isn’t one of your strengths. Having a starting point is invaluable. It is very good at telling you how to approach learning something new. It is very good at summarizing books, podcasts, and videos, particularly if you start by asking it to make an outline, and using the outline to focus on the parts that are most important. Shortly after ChatGPT was released, someone said that it was like a very eager intern: it can do a lot of stuff fast, but not particularly well. GPT (and the other AI services) have gotten better over the past two years, but that’s still true.

Second, realize that AI isn’t very good at being creative. It can tell you how to do something, but it’s not good at telling you what to do. It’s good at combining ideas that people have already had, but not good at breaking new ground.

So, beyond the abstract ideas above, what do you need to know to use AI effectively?

Using AI effectively is all about writing effective prompts. (“Prompts” implies chat and dialogue, but we’re using it for any kind of interaction, even (especially) if you’re writing software that generates or modifies prompts). Good prompts can be very long and detailed—the more detailed, the better. An AI is not like a human assistant who will get bored if you have to spell out what you want in great detail—for an AI, that’s a good idea.

You have to learn a few basic prompting techniques:

  • “Explain it to me like I’m five years old”: A bit hackneyed and perhaps not as useful as it used to be. But it’s worth keeping in mind.
  • Chain-of-thought prompts: asking AI to tell you what steps it will take to solve a problem—then, in a separate prompt, asking it to solve the problem (possibly working step-by-step). Chain-of-thought prompts often include some examples of problems, procedures, and solutions that are done correctly, giving the AI a model to emulate.
  • Structured prompts: Tell the AI who it is (“you are an experienced salesperson”), what you want it to do (“who has been asked to write a tutorial on how to close deals”), and who you are (“for a new hire in the sales department”). These prompts can get very long and elaborate, but the extra work pays off in the quality of the response.
  • Iterated prompts: Using AI isn’t about asking a question, getting an answer, and moving on. If the answer isn’t quite what you want, modify the prompt—make it better. Tell it what’s wrong, give it more context, give it more information about what exactly you want. It won’t get impatient, and your first prompt is rarely your best.
  • Include documents: You can include documents as part of a prompt. This is a good way to provide information the AI doesn’t already have. It may reduce hallucination. It’s also a very simple version of RAG, an important technique for building AI applications.

You have to learn to check whatever output the AI gives you. We’ve all heard of “hallucination”: when an AI gives you output that has no basis in fact. I like to differentiate “hallucination” from simple errors (an incorrect result), but both happen, and the distinction is, at best, technical. It’s not clear what causes hallucination, though it’s more likely to occur in situations where the AI can’t come up with an “answer” to a question.

Checking an AI’s response is an important discipline that hasn’t been discussed. It’s often called “critical thinking,” but that’s not right. Critical thinking is about investigating the underpinning of ideas: the assumptions and preconceived notions behind them. Checking an AI is more like being a fact-checker for someone writing an important article:

  • Can every fact be traced back to a documentable source?
  • Is every reference correct and—even more important—does it exist?
  • Is the AI’s output too vague or general to be useful?
  • Does the AI’s output capture the nuance that you would expect from a human author?

Checking the AI is a strenuous test of your own knowledge. AI might be able to help. Google’s Gemini has an option for checking its output; it will highlight portions of the output and give links that support, refute, or provide (neutral) information about facts it cites. ChatGPT can be induced to do something similar. But it’s important not to rely on the ability of an AI to check itself. All AIs can make subtle errors that are hard to detect; all of the AIs can and will make mistakes checking their output. This is laborious work, but it’s very important to keep a human in the loop. If you trust AI too much, it will eventually be wrong at the most embarrassing and dangerous time possible.

You have to learn what information you should and shouldn’t give to an AI. How will the AI use the prompts you submit? Most AIs will use that information to train future versions of the model. For most conversations, that’s OK, but be careful about personal or confidential information. Your employer may have a policy on what can and can’t be sent to an AI or on which models have been approved for company use. Some of the models let you control whether they will use your data for training; make sure you know what the options are and that they’re set correctly.

That’s a start at what you need to learn to use AI effectively. There’s a lot more detail—it’s worth taking a few courses, such as our AI Academy—but this advice will get you started. More than anything else, use AI as an assistant, not as a crutch. Let AI help you be creative, but make sure that it’s your creativity. Don’t just parrot what an AI told you. That’s how to succeed with AI.

Problem-solving matter

A kingfisher underwater catching a fish amid rising bubbles.

Life is starting to look a lot less like an outcome of chemistry and physics, and more like a computational process

- by David C Krakauer & Chris Kempes

Read at Aeon

China estimate and debate of the day

A major sign of Chinese economic malaise: In 2018, 51,302 new startups were founded in China. Last year, that number dropped to 1,202.

Here is one link, leading to others.  Here is an attempt to talk down the relevance of those numbers.  I would mention that initially there were far too many Chinese start-ups, in part because of government largesse, and so this change is not as bad as it sounds.  Nonetheless it is bad.

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Every Scientific Field

Conveniently for everyone, it turns out that dark energy is produced by subterranean parasitoid wasps.

How to persuade to YIMBY?

Recent research finds that most people want lower housing prices but, contrary to expert consensus, do not believe that more supply would lower prices. This study tests the effects of four informational interventions on Americans’ beliefs about housing markets and associated policy preferences and political actions (writing to state lawmakers). Several of the interventions significantly and positively affected economic understanding and support for land-use liberalization, with standardized effect sizes of 0.15 − 0.3. The most impactful treatment—an educational video from an advocacy group—had effects 2-3 times larger than typical economics-information or political-messaging treatments. Learning about housing markets increased support for development among homeowners as much as renters, contrary to the “homevoter hypothesis.” The treatments did not significantly affect the probability of writing to lawmakers, but an off-plan analysis suggests that the advocacy video increased the number of messages asking for more market-rate housing.

Here is more from Christopher S. Elmendorf, Clayton Nall, and Stan Oklobdzija.  Here is the video.

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My biggest problem

The big event for me right now is the launch of The Remix Method.

So The Remix Method is out, it’s awesome, I’m happy… but my biggest problem reared its ugly head again on this project.

Here are the two big issues that cropped up.

  • The course took about 200 hours to make. That’s double what I planned.

  • The course shipped seven weeks later than planned.

These two issues represent a larger problem I’ve had for many years now: sprawl.

Sprawl is when a project expands after you start working on it – perhaps by many multiples. Imagine starting to run a race, and then noticing, off in the distance, the finish line rushing away from you and disappearing over the horizon.

This happens to me quite a bit on my own projects – and occasionally on client work. Another term for sprawl is “scope creep.”

I’m just now emerging from two sprawls. One was The Remix Method and the other is a video commission for a major newspaper that has dragged on for months. That one proved surprisingly difficult to define and I had to do a lot of rewrites to shape it.

Why does this keep happening?

What do these two projects have in common? The topic of creativity. I consider creativity my wheelhouse, but the topic is innately vast and this vastness creates boundary problems.

That’s my biggest problem: setting the right boundaries for projects. In other words, shaping it, defining what it is, and, even more importantly, what it is not.

I mostly set the boundaries too wide. This wastes time in a couple of ways. 

  • Loads of excess material gets created that ultimately won’t fit the project. For The Remix Method, I created about 40 drafts for additional chapters.

  • Then a bunch of time and mental energy is spent adjusting the boundaries until I finally get it right.

So I know what the issue is. Why on earth do I keep falling into this trap?

It’s simple: doing interesting things requires boundaries that are a bit wide. One of my strengths as a storyteller is that I can perceive topics from a wide-angle perspective. This is one of the major reasons you’re reading me right now.

I need to find better ways to discover the right boundaries for projects before I commit to them. I won’t go into how I plan to do this and it’s still something I’m sorting out, but I’ll revisit this topic in the future.

In the meantime, here are some adjustments I’ll be making to minimize sprawl.

  • Be aware that my favorite topic, creativity, tends to have boundary issues. I got tricked this time because I know the topic so well and I figured I’d have the boundaries better defined than I did.

  • Thanks to The Remix Method, I now have a specific framework I can build on. The creation of the course has given me tighter boundaries to work within. I’ll be sticking to that terrain for a good long while.

  • Lastly and most simply: I have no plans to make a large-scale project for a bit. I’ll be keeping everything smaller for the foreseeable future.

Alright, that’s it for this time folks! See you all in a while!

K

P.S. Wanna learn how to make videos like me? Register for Everything I Know About Making Videos.

Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower to Begin Potentially Wild Week
The new week began on a relatively quiet note in terms of mortgage rate movement and the underlying bond market. ... Traders have quickly shifted back to expecting slightly better odds of a 0.50% rate cut versus the minimum 0.25%. That's not even the important part of the announcement, however. Markets will be more focused on the rate trajectory outlined in the Fed's economic projections as well as the guidance offered in the text of the announcement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. ... Any time an outcome is guaranteed to surprise about half the market, it's pretty much impossible to avoid volatility. [30 year fixed 6.12%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for August will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 77.9%.

• At 10:00 AM, The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 40, up from 39 in August. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

My Raspberry Pi-based temperature tracking project

I've been mentioning Raspberry Pis in a few of my recent posts. I keep finding weird things in these systems. The question is: why am I suddenly wrangling these odd little boxes? The answer involves a story of heating and air conditioning.

First, I need to back up and tell a story about something that happened perhaps 10 years ago. I heard a terrible noise coming from the inside unit where the blower is. It sounded like water draining out, and I half-expected the ceiling to just open up and flood the place. That didn't happen, but that was the end of my hot air. From that point on, it would no longer produce heat for the space.

I reported it to the maintenance people at that building. They actually told me "to push the up button". You know the button on the thermostat that makes it go from 70 to 71 to 72? The actual target temperature? Yes. They told me to push that... and did no further investigation. The fact that it had made a terrible noise right before stopping had no impact on them. The fact I had been operating that system normally for five years at that point and knew how a damn thermostat worked had no impact on them.

I finally had to plead my case to the admin staff, and they came out with actual HVAC technicians. I wasn't there when it happened, but I found out later that there was an actual mechanical type problem with the thing. In other words, it was nothing the thermostat would have ever been able to "fix".

I could have put that thing on 90 and it would have just blown the air around. Obviously. I knew that, but they refused to take me at face value until I went over their heads. WTF? (I mean, I know exactly why. But if I put it in writing then a bunch of 12 year olds are going to attack me. So I'm going to talk around it and about 50% of the adults in the room will know what I'm talking about. It's absolutely true.)

Jump forward to a few months ago. I have a different space in a different building, and this time it was the air conditioner not doing its thing. I don't want some kind of crap happening again. Now, granted, this time it'd be a "down arrow" thing, but I'm not having that. I wanted hard data that they could not refute.

To that end, I obtained several of those "weather station" type wireless sensors. Normally people get them when they buy a so-called "atomic clock" (it's a longwave radio, thank you very much) "weather station" that shows both the inside and outside temperature and may in fact synchronize time from a 60 kHz transmission. You park one part (with the big display) inside, and the other part goes outside.

The outside parts tend to break a lot, so there is a thriving business selling replacements. I picked up a few of them and got busy. One of them was unapologetically zip-tied to a vent. Another one was parked right next to the system thermostat, and a third was placed outside.

There's this program called rtl_433 which will use a cheap $20 SDR (software defined radio) USB stick to receive and decode signals. I took that, convinced it to emit some output that wasn't entirely terrible, and got to wrapping it for my own purposes. Then I installed it on a pair of Raspberry Pis and put a RPC server on top.

Why multiple Pis? Well, a couple of reasons. First of all, I wanted some diversity in my radio receivers. By putting them in different spots, I could probably get a good decode from one even when something kept it from reaching the other. It also lets me update, upgrade or even reboot (!) them as long as I do it one at a time. The Raspberry Pi systems just sit there listening to the (433 MHz) radio, decoding whatever they can. If it looks like a sensor, then it keeps that info in memory and remembers when it heard it. Then, if something queries it over the network, it coughs up all of the data. Each sensor has an "id" and "channel", plus the actual temperature and humidity values, and finally there's an age value.

My Debianized Mac Mini runs another piece of this system. Every 15 seconds or so, it checks in with the Pis and asks them what's up. In theory, both of them will have the same data set, but in practice, it can be slightly different. This is fine. It knows this will happen, and it just keeps the newest sample for all of the sensors it actually cares about. Now you know why I have that "age" field in there!

And yes, "sensors it cares about" is important. Since this is an unlicensed band and these things are rather popular, my radios frequently pick up other plausible-looking transmissions from nearby sources. They aren't consistent, but they do exist.

If we have good data that isn't too old for sensors we care about, then it flushes those data points as rows in a Postgres database on the Mac mini. Then it goes to sleep for another 15 seconds or so. Easy enough.

Getting to this stage quickly was important. Any temperature variations you don't measure and log are gone forever. Any data points you don't get off the air are gone forever. Any time you aren't polling the "radio server" on the Pis, those samples disappear forever. The most important thing for me was getting a long stream of uninterrupted data so I could make my case.

Why measure both the room and the vent? That's easy. When the AC is on, there should be a considerable drop from one to the other. An insufficient drop means either the system is broken, or it's somehow so incredibly hot outside that it can't bleed off any heat when it pumps through the coils out there. That's why I have the third sensor outside: it tells me what the temperature is right here at the building - not at one of the airports, and not in some ideal case. It's right here buried in the same urban "heat island" that the outside half of the HVAC system is in. (And no, the outside sensor is not in a spot where the outside system can influence it.)

With just this, I could show that there was no drop at all despite the (hyperlocal) outside temperature being totally reasonable. It should have been giving me cold air. It wasn't. It was all there in the numbers. I guess they realized they had to take me seriously, since I received a plan to replace the entire unit. This would involve ripping a giant hole in the ceiling, pulling the existing unit, then putting in a brand new unit.

Now, this happened during these "supply chain" shananigans, so this took *months* to receive, and all the while, I was just sitting here, logging away, busily collecting data points. I eventually got tired of looking at raw logs and then later, running SQL queries, so I started on some visualizations.

My first approach was to write a very simple web page that basically did the 1995 "meta refresh" trick. It would IMG SRC a CGI program. That CGI program just hit up the database, asked it for the last N hours, rendered it as a graph in a PNG, and then shipped it to stdout. That gave me a nice graphical view with all three sensors using the same scale, and it was easy to see what was (and wasn't) happening.

That worked okay, but it was annoying. Reloading the whole page 1995-style meant it flickered as the whole thing came back in every time. It had a fixed width and height, and it basically only worked on my usual web browser window on my one machine. If I loaded it from anywhere else, then it looked wrong.

It was a really crappy renderer, but it was a start. It looked like this:

A wavy sea of green pixels on a white background with no bars for alignment, times along the bottom, and temp ranges at left, with spikes roughly every hour

That's what the space looks like when it just "freewheels". My guess for the periodic spikes is a defrost cycle on a nearby freezer, but I never bothered to prove that conclusively. As for the bigger cycles, that's just whatever happened with people coming and going, the sun shining on the windows or not, and things of that nature.

Aside from some small improvements (like vertical bars for the hours), that's about what I ran for a couple of months. Then, I got this weird notion one day: what if it was rendered client-side to a canvas in JavaScript? That would let it adapt to whatever size the page happened to be, and it could figure out how far back to go while maintaining a reasonable density - that is, how many seconds cook down into each horizontal pixel?

So, when I mentioned I was doing stuff in JS a while back, that too was not an exaggeration. I was in fact writing that, because there's really no choice in the matter. If you want to do this kind of stuff in a browser, it's this or nothing.

Anyway, this is what things have turned into (showing outside):

Green on white graph, now with vertical dividers for each hour, showing 9 to 18 (hours) with a ramp in temp from 9-11, slight decay from then with lots of bumpiness, then dropping off after 17 (5 PM)

The fun part about this is utterly abusing the web server on that Mac Mini by grabbing the corner of my browser window and whipping it around. That thing repaints all over the place and generates bunches of requests for freshly aggregated data at the new settings. I haven't bothered rate-limiting or debouncing any of it since it's just me using it, and I can generate all the requests I want.

You can't see it from this second screenshot, but I even went as far as to do some mouseover magic so it will set the TITLE of the canvas to the temperature value at whatever X-offset I'm over. So, if I spot some weird peak and want to know that value, pointing at it and waiting a moment for the tooltip will answer that question right away.

The actual replacement happened a while back, and the space is now being managed properly yet again. I haven't stopped monitoring it, because, eh, why not. It's still fun to look at, and besides, it could happen again.

...

In terms of the moving parts here, it looks like this:

Two Raspberry Pis: one 3B, one 3B+, that I just had hanging around. Stock Raspbian installs, albeit with a whole lot of "WTF is this? Buh-bye" removals having been applied. I've tossed a whole bunch of packages that had no business being on there.

Two RTLSDR sticks that I also had hanging around: one per Pi.

rtl_433, which is available from apt as "rtl-433". It's configured to spit out JSON since that was the least obnoxious output I could get from it. (It's still annoying. Ask me about numbers vs. chars for sensor channels sometime.)

My own "thermo_server" which does the pipe/fork/dup2/exec thing to wrap rtl_433, and then sits there parsing output and storing it in memory in one thread. Then my existing RPC gunk serves that data up to authorized clients. It uses jansson to chew on the JSON since the code to use that already existed from other projects.

Over on the Mac Mini: it's a Debian box, as mentioned previously. It has postgres and Apache. It also runs my "thermo_logger" which knows to go poke the "thermo_server" processes over the network (with the RPC gunk) every so often. Then it flushes usable data to the database: INSERT INTO x ... whatever. Easy enough.

A chunk of HTML and another blob of JS that generates requests to the server and renders the data points as a reasonable graph looking thing. There's also a bit of CSS to make it render just so.

A CGI program unimaginatively called "data" which actually takes those requests from the JS callout, hits up the database, and then throws it at the requester. It too uses jansson, because JSON, because web browsers. It's basically the one place where it makes a little bit of sense.

...

And so, yeah, there it is: I wrote a temperature monitoring system to keep from being treated badly by maintenance people. Funny how that works.

CPHC Central North Pacific Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Thu Sep 19 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Tsamous
NNNN


NHC Atlantic Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the central
subtropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon.
Some development of this system is possible while it moves northward
or north-northeastward over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of
Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive, but some
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
open waters of the central or western Subtropical Atlantic though
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

Place name mappings probably need a time dimension too

I used to work at Facebook. That was both the name of the service with all of the cat pictures and the name of the company that paid me every two weeks. The cat picture part still has the same name, but the parent company does not. It's called Meta now. I left well before any of that renaming happened.

As a result, I have plenty of pictures that predate that change on my Macs and other Apple devices. They're mostly geotagged, but something curious has happened to them: the name of the place has shifted. It's no longer "Facebook HQ". It's now "Meta - Headquarters". This is what it looks like in the Apple photos app:

macOS photos app showing a photo of the "MPK classic" building map on the ground, taken at FB in 2014 but it's labeled "Meta - Headquarters" at top

Given that this picture was taken in 2014, it was clearly not Meta back then. I know, the usual "well actually" people are warming up their keyboards right about now: "it used to be called that, and it's the same company, so it's fine" and so on and so forth. I don't like that, but okay, whatever, let's say we accept that for the moment because it IS the same company with a different name. Companies do that all the time.

What if that picture of the ground had been taken in that same spot in 2004? Would it still make sense to call it "Meta - Headquarters"? I hope you wouldn't say that. Back then, that space was inhabited by Sun Microsystems, a company that very much is not the same as Facebook. (This is well before Oracle ate them - that was 2009-2010.)

What happens in another couple of years when Meta is the next smoking crater in the tech landscape and then some other company tries to become the next unicorn in the mud flats of Menlo Park? Or how about a couple of decades past then when that whole area is underwater? Will my pictures say something like "San Francisco Bay"?

This why I would say that perhaps we need some time bounding on these hyperlocal place names. Now, I realize this is no small thing. It's one of those big-O blowup factors, and that's annoying for all involved. Still, if you take the very long view on these things, something is going to have to happen eventually. Otherwise, our grandkids will have pictures that we took that make no sense at all.

There should also be some actual humanity applied here. Place names are non-trivial, and many of them have captured a large amount of hateful and just plain ignorant behavior. That's why you can't just automatically build up a list of "this place was called this at this time". It needs people in the loop to make thoughtful decisions about how to handle the more interesting ones.

Case in point: Palisades Tahoe. I also have pictures that I took there many years ago. I am more than fine with them being rendered with its current name. I know it wasn't called that when I was there. Give it an asterisk if you must, but really, even that probably isn't needed.

That's what I mean when I say that we should be careful about this.


June 20, 2022: This post has an update.

NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. 1. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

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The Dark Seahorse of Cepheus

Spanning light-years, this Spanning light-years, this