Extraterrestrial tongues

A man looking up from the driver’s seat of a yellow vehicle with an open window and side mirror visible.

Imagining how aliens might communicate prepares us for first contact and illuminates the nature of our own languages

- by Nikhil Mahant

Read at Aeon

Cacao, cocoa, and coca (Etymology meets botany, agriculture and health)

Cocoa and cacao and coca?  Which one of these three things is different from the other two? (I'll leave the harder question of milk versus dark chocolate to the end of the post...)

from Microsoft copilot:

"Coca refers to the Erythroxylum coca plant, native to South America. Its leaves have been traditionally used by indigenous cultures for medicinal and stimulant purposes. Coca contains cocaine alkaloids, which can be extracted to produce the drug cocaine. However, when consumed in its natural form—such as in teas or chewed leaves—it has mild stimulant effects similar to caffeine
 

"Cocoa and cacao come from...the Theobroma cacao tree—but they go through different processing methods, leading to distinct characteristics.
Cacao refers to the raw and less processed version of the seed from the cacao tree. It is typically cold-pressed to preserve its natural enzymes, antioxidants, and nutrients. Cacao nibs and powder have a slightly bitter and earthy flavor, making them popular in health-conscious recipes.
Cocoa, on the other hand, is cacao that has been roasted"

 

What is the etymology of cocoa and cacao?

"The word cacao comes from the Nahuatl (Aztec) word "cacahuatl," which means "cocoa bean". The cacao tree is native to Central and South America, and its cultivation dates back to at least 1500 BCE among the Mayans and Aztecs.
The word cocoa, on the other hand, is actually a corruption of "cacao" that emerged in English around the 18th century. The confusion likely arose due to the similarity between "cacao" and "coco" (which refers to the coconut), and the mistake was reinforced when dictionary printers accidentally merged the entries for "cocoa" and "coco". By the early 1800s, "cocoa" had become the standard spelling.
So, while "cacao" is the original term, "cocoa" became the more commonly used word in English, especially when referring to processed products like cocoa powder.

#########

Now for the important news on chocolate science from Harvard's School of Public Health:

Eating dark chocolate linked with reduced risk of type 2 diabetes By Maya Brownstein 

"Our findings suggest that not all chocolate is created equal,” said lead author Binkai Liu, doctoral student at the Harvard Kenneth C. Griffin Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, studying in the Harvard Chan School Department of Nutrition. “For anyone who loves chocolate, this is a reminder that making small choices, like choosing dark chocolate over milk chocolate, can make a positive difference to their health.”

The study was published online Dec. 4 in The BMJ.



Solve for the electoral energy equilibrium

I know many Democrats have been heartened by recent electoral wins by the Labor Party in Australia and the Liberal Party in Canada, both boosted by anti-Trump sentiment.

But Labor prime minister Anthony Albanese views Australia as an energy-producing country, and while they have taken measures to boost renewables deployment and electric cars, they’re not seeking to curb coal mining or exports. Similarly, Mark Carney went to Alberta to proclaim his desire to make Canada an “energy superpower” that would “recognize that we are home to an abundance of conventional — that means oil and gas — conventional and clean energy resources.” I think that part where he went off script and clarified that by conventional he meant oil and gas is important. The prepared text was sort of doing dog whistle moderation, but he wanted people to hear his message clearly: that, while his strongest interest is in facilitating clean energy deployment, he intends to keep selling the world oil and gas as long as oil and gas are useful.

Everybody knows you’re not winning in Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, or Alaska on a message of shutting down fossil fuels. But if you’re not winning those states, you don’t have a majority. Instead of the national party adopting a message that’s toxic in those states and then recruiting candidates who try to distance themselves from it, the solution is for the national party to adopt the same kind of messages that work for the center-left in Canada and Australia and Norway.

That is from (partially gated) Matt Yglesias.

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Is classical liberalism for losers?

That is the topic of my latest column for The Free Press.  Excerpt, starting with the point that the New Right has an obsession with seizing political power:

There are two essential problems with yelling “Rule!”

The first is that your side will not win every election. It’s a reliable assumption that, on average, “the other side,” whoever that may be, is going to win half of the time.

If you build up executive power, or state power more generally, in the service of your ends, the chances are pretty high that those same powers someday will be used against you. Democrats are enraged at Trump’s use of executive orders and executive power more broadly, but that did not begin with Trump. Consider how Barack Obama seized the power to provide legal status to illegal immigrants, or how Joe Biden sought to extinguish all those student loans, without buy-in from Congress. The point is that Trump stepped into a system that had already been transformed, and he is now using it to his own ends.

Or to take another example: Many Democrats hate DOGE, but in fact it is a repurposed version of a 2014 President Obama creation, namely the United States Digital Service, which initially was designed to improve the IT capabilities of the federal government. Ask yourself which Trump initiatives someday will be repurposed in an analogous fashion.

If your fundamental beliefs are in individual liberty, responsibility, and toleration, the escalation of state power, across competing administrations, is unlikely to prove your friend over time.

The second problem is that rule by the political right is not necessarily better than rule by the political left, even if you have basic right-leaning sympathies, as I do on a large number of issues, especially in the economic realm. But even on economics, the Trump administration is bringing depredations, such as the very high proposed tariff rates, that we would not have seen under a typical Democratic administration. Circa May 2025, I feel less economically free than I did under the Biden administration.

Such problems are all the more true when a given side wins a series of successive political victories.

Power corrupts; the right is not immune to that truism. For instance, the Republican Party typically has been a vehicle for fiscal conservatives, at least on paper and in rhetoric. Yet under the Republican trifectas of both George W. Bush and the first Trump administration, both spending and debt rose dramatically. When you get to be the one spending the money, it is hard to exercise restraint.

I go on to argue that classical liberalism in fact does win a series of periodic transformative victories, even though at many historical moments it is relatively dormant in influence.  It is the way to be a real winner.

Definitely recommended, of real importance.

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Listen To This: Culture War Losses

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh discuss the Trump administration’s muteness on abortion (so far), their losses in recent Alien Enemies Act cases and the sweet, sweet downfall of eagle Ed Martin.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

BREAKING: Trump Yanks Ed Martin Nomination

A short time ago, President Trump announced in the Oval Office that he is pulling the nomination of Ed Martin as U.S. attorney for D.C.

Saying he was “disappointed” that Martin’s nomination foundered in the Senate, Trump floated the possibility of bringing Martin into the administration – and specifically into the Justice Department – in some other way.

So we may not be rid of Martin quite yet.

Martin, a Stop The Steal booster who had zero experience as a prosecutor, came in as acting D.C. U.S. attorney with a reputation as a political hack and only embellished his notoriety in his roughly 200 days on the job. His tenure as an acting official ends by law on May 20.

In his short run as acting U.S. attorney, Martin repeatedly violated DOJ guidelines by publicly threatening and confirming investigations. His bizarre but ominous “letters of inquiry after request” were sent to members of Congress, scientific journals, and at least one university.

Martin was the face of the weaponization and politicization of the DOJ in the Trump II presidency. He canned prosecutors who worked on the Jan. 6 cases, and launched an investigation of the investigators for their charging decisions in the Jan. 6 prosecutions, even though many of those cases arose in the waning days of the Trump I presidency.

In one memorable episode, Martin in his role as U.S. attorney moved to dismiss charges against one Jan. 6 defendant whom Martin was still representing as criminal defense attorney. After the egregious misstep, Martin quickly moved to withdraw as defense counsel.

Martin’s nomination was mortally wounded earlier this week when Sen. Thom Tills (R-NC), a Senate Judiciary Committee Republican, said that he could not vote for Martin. While Tillis ran point on scuttling the nomination, there was broader, though not universal, dis-ease within the GOP conference about Martin helming the D.C. U.S. attorney’s office, one of the two or three most important in the country.

Trump said a replacement nominee for Martin has already been selected but did not name the person.

NEW: Ed Martin is OUT as Trump’s nominee for U.S. Attorney for DC. “We have somebody else that we’ll be announcing over the next two days who’s gonna be great.”

[image or embed]

— Anna Bower (@annabower.bsky.social) May 8, 2025 at 11:57 AM

Very Interesting Follow Up About that OPM Contract

From an anonymous TPM Reader …

As a former OPM appointee, this seems suspect for numerous reasons. Going through the Federal News Network article, the first thing that doesn’t make sense is in the second paragraph. Leading with retirement applications and RIFs is really odd, since the federal retirement process is a government-wide problem that a central OPM system isn’t going to fix alone, and OPM has no real role in RIFs for other agencies. The small price tag you cite is another huge red flag. This must be for OPM systems only (internal, not in a government-wide capacity) and I know from experience working with Workday and companies like them that $300K doesn’t go very far. I think they got rid of too many people at OPM too quickly (a mix of policy expert people and hands on execution people) and this is a desperate effort to fill that gap.

The listed services that the contract will cover raises more questions and red flags. Anyone who has ever implemented a major IT system change will reject the concept of what is described. In effect, it sounds like they are implementing every module for every HR activity all at once. They reference July 15, which is the end of the hiring freeze period, as a key day, and they say that they hope to have the contract awarded by then. But then they reference a memo about payroll and retirement that has the same July 15 deadline as the point at which all retirement submissions must be electronic. So they are awarding the contract and making a major policy/operations change on the same day? Do they think the system is so “push button” that everything will be online in minutes?

I read the sole source justification, but the only additional information I gleaned from that is that Workday was chosen because of their speed of implementation, as demonstrated by recent work at the Department of Energy. When they list all the requirements, I know that SAP/Deloitte and Oracle have federal-specific, cloud-based systems that can do everything that Workday can, so the speed of implementation is the primary factor. The justification memo also lists another company, Dayforce, that I have not heard of, as if they were the only other company that expressed interest. I am interpreting that one of two ways. Either the Administration did not actually talk with SAP and Oracle or they gave them more realistic timelines than Workday promised. With this administration, I think it would be smarter to let Workday go ahead and fall on their face than to protest and risk never getting work again out of retaliation.

Again, the most confusing parts are that the article and even the OPM justification memo conflates or at least makes it unclear if they are talking about OPM’s internal systems or the government-wide role they play, especially in retirement. I suppose both can be true, but the way it is written is confusing. Namely, the reference to the need for OPM to develop RIF registers quickly and then the references to the crush of retirements hitting them. All those things take way more effort and money than what is being procured. I think it is funny that a big part of the justification for the speed of implementation is all the EOs and OMB memos and deadlines. Essentially, we are telling ourselves to go at this pace, so we have no choice but to sole source.I can say from personal experience that the Obama Administration worked for 8 years on facets of retirement systems modernization after the Bush Administration tried to hire Hewitt to bring private sector solutions to federal retirement. That project was slated to cost nearly $300 million over 10 years, but it failed spectacularly. When my team arrived at OPM in 2009, we heard all sorts of wild stories of waste and flim-flam related to that effort. There was talk of a presentation where data from across the government went into a literal black box (as depicted on the slide as Hewitt’s proprietary solution) and accurate retirement claims came out the other side. This seems similar but in one year for one tenth of one percent of the price. Right. 

Elon’s OPM Hands Out No Bid Contract to Cloud-Based AI HR Company

After firing much of its staff, the Office of Personal Management, under Elon Musk’s effective control since late January, has handed out a no bid contract to cloud-AI-based HR company Workday to help handle the mountain of terminations, retirements and layoffs built up over the first three months of the Trump administration. OPM stated in justification for the sole-source, no-bid contract that “an urgent confluence of operational failures and binding federal mandates that require immediate action.”

Workday CEO Carl Eschenbach has reportedly been making the rounds of Washington DC since the first days of the Trump administration. After an earnings call in late February he pointed to DOGE’s work as a source of many new opportunities for growth. “As we think about DOGE and what that could potentially do going forward …” Eschenbach said, “If you want to drive efficiency in the government, you have to upgrade your systems and we find that as a really rich opportunity.”

Workday was founded in 2005 and became a public company in 2012. The contract itself isn’t especially large, $342k for one year. OPM says it will put the contract out for competitive bidding at the end of the one year contract. Hiring Workday is part of the global DOGE strategy of firing federal civil servants and replacing them with contractors from the tech sector. In February Goldman Sachs upped its price target for Workday from $310 to $345 before lowering it in April to $275.

The NIH Funds-Ghosting, A Follow Up Report

Two days ago, I wrote about a pattern operating largely under the radar in the President’s war against higher education. We know about the general grant freezes on about half a dozen elite universities. Then there are countless other grant terminations across a much larger group of universities. One of the complexities of this story is that there are so many different versions of cancellations and terminations going on, it’s hard to figure out which is which. It’s just as hard deciphering to what extent the differences even matter. There are ones tied to prohibited words and concepts (DEI, transgender); there are ones tied to targeted universities; others are terminated on generic efficiency grounds; others are canceled for no clear reason. Are these categories even meaningful or is that all just more smoke and mirrors and distraction?

What I focused on Tuesday was a particular pattern with frozen NIH grants. Most government grants were being terminated through a formal process involving a “stop-work order” and various other procedures that the U.S. government uses to cancel a grant. But the NIH grants were different. Stop-work orders never came. The reimbursements for the research simply stopped coming. Indeed, as I noted in Wednesday’s post, there was actually an email in which NIH civil servants were ordered explicitly not to explain or even discuss the lack of payments. It was like a bureaucratic ghosting: funds-ghosting, we might say.

I first got onto this from information I learned about Northwestern University and I was able to find hints of the same thing happening at Brown and Cornell. In response to that post, I heard from a large number of new sources at various universities. And the upshot of talking to all those people is that this is a clear pattern across all the targeted elite universities. In almost every case, individual researchers or departments have known about this for weeks but have struggled to find out more from their universities and had little or no idea it was happening everywhere else too.

Well, it wasn’t just you, folks!

Something else similar but distinct cropped up. Most research grants operate over a number of years. Over that period there are required “non-competing renewals.” This is essentially the grantor (the U.S. government) checking in on your progress, making sure everything is being done to the proper standards and then, if so, re-upping the support for the originally agreed-upon term. The way the process works is that you have a process of formal reviews. If all those reviews look good, the formal notice of renewal should be forthcoming. In a parallel to the payments-ghosting described above, the reviews are proceeding as normal. But the renewals never arrive.

There is clearly a very deliberate policy of ghosting or forcing the shutdown of these studies without any formal termination or paper trail. In almost every case, the universities have continued to cover the expenses. The way the process works is that the university pays and is then reimbursed. So to date you’re mostly talking about periods of non-payment varying from six weeks to significantly less. The difference seems to turn at least partly on different universities’ frequency of submitting reimbursement requests. But that can’t continue indefinitely. Most of these universities have issued internal guidance that amounts to locking down expenses as much as possible — no new hiring, as little spending as possible consistent with keeping a study viable. Many universities have asked lab heads to quickly arrange a triage plan of staged cuts as available funds dwindle.

One additional fact — and one I’m quite interested in hearing more on — is that this does not appear to be limited to the target elite universities. It appears to be happening at other research universities as well. Some are extremely well-known and as “elite” as the target list but ones we have not heard mentioned to date. I’m still trying to find out more on those cases and to get a clearer sense of how general the funds-ghosting is at those universities, whether the patterns are the same or not. In one non-target university I’ve heard about similar NIH non-payments. But rather than ghosting, this case sounds more like the NIH continually kicking back new questions about a request for reimbursement. That sounds like DOGE’s “defend the spend” gambit, a more deliberate and bespoke slow-rolling. As I said above, it can be hard to know in many cases just which DOGE/Trump racket you’re dealing with. In any case, if you’re at a university that isn’t on that target list and you’ve seen any non-payment of non-terminated NIH grants, please contact me. As usual, you can reach me via encrypted channels listed above and below this post.

For Keith Jarrett's 80th Birthday: 10 Key Tracks from His Early Career

Keith Jarrett became an unlikely superstar in the closing days of 1975. Almost overnight the pianist found himself transformed from a fringe figure, known only by serious jazz fans, into a crossover artist with a huge audience.

The reason was a solo piano album Jarrett had recorded in Cologne, Germany earlier that same year. This record, released on November 30, 1975,  became the bestselling solo piano album of all time.

Up until this moment, Keith Jarrett had been considered brilliant—but cranky, eccentric, and sometimes hostile to audiences. But now, all of a sudden, he was trendy.

I saw it happen with my own eyes.


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I was a teenager in 1975, and one cold December evening I was browsing through the jazz record bins at Banana Records on El Camino Real in Palo Alto. This was a strange record store built in the shape of an enormous wooden crate.

The building looked like a sad joke, and the selection was even sadder. I preferred shopping at Tower Records in Mountain View, but Banana Records was closer to my college dorm room. I sometimes went there just to kill time.

But this proved to be a memorable evening. The mood in the big wooden crate turned magical when the clerk at the checkout counter put an unexpected record on the turntable.

No, it wasn’t Frampton Comes Alive—an album that seemed to follow me everywhere I went during the next 12 months, like some avenging ghost—or the fashionable debut album from a Palo Alto High School keyboardist who had recently adopted the odd name Pablo Cruise for his band.

It was something much different tonight—the new Keith Jarrett album, The Köln Concert. It had been released the previous week.

I’d discovered Keith Jarrett back in high school and was already a huge fan. I wasn’t just listening to his albums during my teen years, I was studying them as part of my self-directed music education.

I listened to them for hours on end. Sometimes I kept them playing at night while I slept.

So I smiled in approval to this music coming from the checkout counter. It was like hearing a familiar friend.

But I didn’t think anyone else in the store was listening.

I was dead wrong.

Over the next few minutes, I watched as customer after customer walked up to the counter and asked the clerk the name of the album he was playing. As soon as they learned the title, they bought the record.

Within 15 minutes, the store had sold every copy of The Köln Concert they had in stock.

This must have happened elsewhere too—because soon even my less-than-hip classmates, raised on the thinnest top 40 pablum, knew about Keith Jarrett.

Sometimes they would even take Frampton Comes Alive off the record player, and put on The Koln Concert instead.

This unnerved me—these two albums belonged in different universes, and should never share a turntable. But clearly Jarrett found his new-found fame even more distressing.

In the aftermath of The Köln Concert success, Jarrett refused to play any of the music on the album in concert. He made no attempt at recording a follow-up hit in the same style.

In fact, the next time Jarrett released a live solo piano recording he made sure it was packaged as a bulky and pricey 10-album box set unsuitable for the mass market. For years, he worked to prevent others from recording or publishing the Cologne music.

He later told an interviewer: “We also have to learn to forget music. Otherwise we become addicted to the past.” That’s always a good philosophy for a jazz musician. But in this instance, Jarrett was referring specifically to his bestselling album.

This success, even if it was disavowed by the pianist, testifies to his extraordinary musicality. The Köln Concert was a powerful creative statement. But successes of this sort don’t come out of nowhere.

So let me probe the origins of Keith Jarrett’s style in 10 tracks. Each of these was recorded between the ages of 20 and 30. They make clear that Jarrett was already a formidable musician from the moment of his first recording, but somehow managed to expand and advance his vision at a scary rate for another decade.

It’s no exaggeration to say that Jarrett not only broadened the scope of his own ambitions during these years, but somehow managed to widen the entire jazz vocabulary. On many of these early recordings, Jarrett did things nobody had attempted in the genre before.


Keith Jarrett (with Art Blakey): “Secret Love,” recorded live at The Lighthouse, Hermosa Beach, California, January 1966

Jarrett made only one album as a member of Art Blakey’s Jazz Messengers, but it’s a doozy. This is still one of my favorite Jarrett tracks, although he was barely out of his teens when he made it. Everything here earns my praise: his touch at the keyboard, his improvised lines, his rhythmic sophistication, his effortless virtuosity. But I’m especially struck by how confidently he challenges the legendary drummer Art Blakey, who was Jarrett’s boss at the time.

From the opening notes of his solo, at the 5:15 mark, Jarrett pushes the tonal center to the brink—in a way that I’d never heard anybody do in Blakey’s band. After all, the Messengers enjoyed renown as a soulful hard bop ensemble, not an avant-garde outfit—pianists in the band were supposed to play with a funky, boppish groove on songs like this. But Jarrett has a different agenda, starting out with strident atonality, but eventually shifting into hardass bebop around the 6:45 mark. The whole solo is breathtakingly disruptive.

I would love to hear a dozen more albums of Jarrett with the Blakey band. In some ways, Blakey was an ideal drummer for Keith, countering the impressionistic tendencies that defined much of Jarrett’s later work, and giving him an effective kick in the piano seat. But fans like me only have this one live date to enjoy.


Keith Jarrett (with Art Blakey): “My Romance,” recorded live at The Lighthouse, Hermosa Beach, California, January 1966

I need to share one more track from this Art Blakey album—because it’s the earliest example of Jarrett’s lyrical playing on record. This overt melodicism would come to the forefront on The Köln Concert, but you can already hear hints of it on this same 1966 performance at The Lighthouse. Here the band delivers one of those slow ballads that even hard bop band occasionally played—in this instance “My Romance,” composed by Richard Rodgers in 1935.

The melody statement and opening solo are handled here by Chuck Mangione, who would also sell quite a few records in the next decade. Mangione takes care of business, and earns my respect. He’s not the fluffmeister some will have you believe. But then the young Keith Jarrett follows up with a piano solo at the 3:45 mark that obliterates everything that’s come before it.

Each phrase is fresh and free and lovely—and the listener feels instantly that this is what a romantic jazz ballad should sound like. It’s emotionally direct, but never clichéd or saccharine. It’s more like a flirty conversation with someone you know you’re going to fall in love with. And check out the tone that Jarrett gets out of that beaten-down Lighthouse piano. There’s so much music here—but the entire solo lasts just 100 seconds.


Keith Jarrett (with Charles Lloyd): “Of Course, Of Course,” recorded and filmed at RTB Studio in Belgium, on May 2, 1966

Ten months later, Jarrett appeared on film for the first time—as a member of Charles Lloyd’s quartet—and he’s rocking and rolling. No, I’m not talking about the music (which is straight-ahead jazz) but the pianist’s constant body motion at the keyboard. If I had done this at my student piano recitals, my teacher (a nun named Sister Camille Cecile) would have hit me upside the head.

Jarrett is already digging into his Cage-and-Cowell-ish bag of tricks here—slapping the piano strings or strumming them or pressing down on them to distort the notes. But I want to call particular attention to his solo on “Of Course, Of Course,” which starts at the 7:20 mark. Here we find the origin of all those funky vamps and ostinatos on Jarrett’s later albums.

This hardly sounds like jazz anymore—there’s more Ray Charles and Meade Lux Lewis here than anything you might hear at a jazz club. The remarkable fact, however, is that Jarrett was completely schooled in advanced jazz pianistics at this stage, and had drunk deeply from the most progressive masters of the art form, but then he sits down at the piano, as if he had forgotten all that, and instead channels some gospel-ish groove from a revival meeting.

This kind of talent was scary—and Jarrett is still 6 days away from his 21st birthday.


Keith Jarrett, “Liza,” recorded in Oslo on May 7, 1966

This track was recorded five days after the previous one—but seems to be a bootleg. Somebody found it in the Norwegian Jazz Archives, a donation from Randi Hultin, who befriended so many jazz legends over the years.

It was probably recorded at Hultin’s house, and certainly wasn’t intended for commercial release. Keith didn’t play like this in concert at the time—or at any other time. He’s just having fun here, or maybe showing off.

What he delivers is so amazing that you can hear people (Charles Lloyd? Randi Hultin? Jack DeJohnette?) laughing in amazement in the background. For a start, Keith demonstrates that he can play in the traditional stride piano style, and has studied closely Art Tatum and the other masters of the idiom.

And then he moves on from there into his own two-handed keyboard pyrotechnics. This is ultra-high level virtuosity, but Jarrett tosses it off like it’s nothing. 

Jarrett is still 20 years old, but will turn 21 the following day.


Keith Jarrett (with Charlie Haden and Paul Motian), “Everything I Love,” recorded in New York on May 4, 1967

Atlantic Records offered the young pianist a contract, and he recorded his debut leader date in 1967. This was a big deal—Atlantic was home for Aretha Franklin, Sonny & Cher, Otis Redding, and other heavy names. The label probably wanted something soulful, but Jarrett opted to record with a nuanced jazz trio.

Jarrett explained in the liner notes:

“I must add a word about the recording session. It was done without any restrictions whatsoever on the music. Mr. Avakian (man of many worlds) supervised the recording but not one alteration in the music was made. I am extremely grateful for this.”

Even as the start, Jarrett demanded artistic freedom—almost as much a trademark of his work as any specific musical vocabulary. And who could complain about his choice of bandmates: bassist Charlie Haden and drummer Paul Motian? They would stay with Jarrett for the next decade.


Keith Jarrett, “For You and Me,” recorded in New York on March 12, 1968

Nothing prepares you for what Jarrett did next.

All of sudden, he drops jazz and turns into a Bob Dylan-ish folk rock singer—with a bit of Donovan thrown in for good measure.  But not even Dylan and Donovan combined played 11 different instruments on an album. The ambitions ran so high that the Atlantic label even added a chart to the back cover, so you could follow what Keith was playing on each track.

Hardly anyone talks about this album nowadays—not even Jarrett fanatics. It’s too strange. Jarrett soon abandoned  his folk rock ambitions (although some of these elements found their way into his jazz piano work). When I first heard it, years ago, I couldn’t handle this album, not in the least.

But with the benefit of hindsight, I now think that Jarrett had a pleasing guitar sound, and knew how to write a pop-oriented melody. His voice is a little raw but, honestly, so is Dylan’s.

Restoration Ruin wasn’t a strong enough statement to climb the charts, but with some patience Jarrett might have pursued this alternative vision with some success. If he had devoted a few years to touring as a singer-songwriter, he may very well have blown our minds.

Yet I have no regrets because Keith had greater things in his future than this.


Keith Jarrett (with Miles Davis): “Honky Tonk,” recorded and filmed live at Chateau Neuf, Oslo, Norway on November 9, 1971

I have to laugh every time I hear people talking about how Miles Davis chased a crossover audience in the 1970s. This ain’t no crossover music, my friends.

The songs are strange and unsettling, without radio-friendly hooks. In fact, the tracks are so long and rambling, that even jazz disk jockeys hesitated before spinning this deep fusion for their listeners. I can’t deny that some of these Davis albums sold in large quantities but, at moments like this, I think Miles was defying his rock audience instead of currying favor with it.

No, I don’t think this is Jarrett’s best music of the era, but he benefited from working with a jazz legend willing to take chances and resist expectations. A few years later, Jarrett would also enjoy a big boost in sales even while breaking many of the accepted rules of the genre. Long before The Köln Concert, he learned how to build  long, rambling forms out of interludes, vamps, change-ups, and textures. Much of it he learned under the tutelage of Mr. Davis.


Keith Jarrett: “In Front,” recorded in Oslo on November 10, 1971

The album Facing You marks the most important turning point in Jarrett’s career. In fact, this record belongs on any short list of the most important solo jazz piano records of all time.

Up until this point, Jarrett was a prodigy who could do almost anything, but there’s no real cohesion to his worldview. Those tracks with Miles and Blakey and the showy stride solo piece above sound like the work of different pianists.

Yet somehow Jarrett develops—almost overnight, it seems—a unified, holistic style that incorporates all of these previously disparate ingredients, from lyrical to funky. The end result sounds unlike any other jazz piano album up to that juncture.

Here all of the familiar modern jazz phraseology of the past is replaced by something unprecedented. Where did he get all of these new phrases and textures—Bartok? Shostakovich? John Coates back in Delaware?

I don’t think we’ll ever know. And, in all fairness, Jarrett was creating so much new stuff here that the antecedents hardly matter. That said, let’s give plenty of credit to Keith’s new producer (Manfred Eicher) and label (ECM). No partnership between producer and musician in jazz history has been more productive over so many years.


Keith Jarrett: The Bremen Concert, recorded live in Bremen, Germany on July 12, 1973

During my formative years, there was no album I listened to more often than Solo Concerts: Bremen/Lausanne. This was the music I played all night long on a tape loop. It was like sleep learning for me. Then I would listen to it again during the day. 

If Facing You represents the turning point in Jarrett’s stylistic synthesis, the subsequent solo concerts showed how far Jarrett could push his new conceptualization of jazz piano. The performances were totally improvised—there weren’t even song titles, the music just flowed. The only constraint was the pianist’s watch, which he would put on the piano. It gave him some sense of how long to play, but everything else happened without rules or restrictions.

I love every nook and cranny of this music. But the opening twenty or thirty minutes of the Bremen concert belong on my desert island list.


Keith Jarrett (with his American Quartet): “Introduction/Yaqui Indian Folk Song,” recorded in New York on February 27-28, 1974

Jarrett continued to record as a bandleader for several US labels—including Columbia, which infamously signed the pianist to a contract and dropped him after a single album. It’s all too fitting that the artist sold millions of records in the two years following his dismissal.

But even as Jarrett was redefining solo jazz piano he continued to move into new areas with his so-called American quartet—built around Charlie Haden, Paul Motian, and Dewey Redman. Many of us still lament the fact that this group broke up in the mid-1970s. Jarrett would go on to lead other outstanding ensembles, but none ever sounded like this one.

The American combo deserves an article on its own, but let me slip in one track here—an adaption of a Native American folk song that Jarrett’s band played as an encore the first time I saw this group in concert (five weeks after that evening in the big wooden crate). Here he demonstrated that this new lyrical strain, so evident in his solo piano work, could also flourish within the context of a postmodern jazz quartet.


These tracks laid the groundwork for the bestselling Köln Concert—and a lot else. At a future date, I plan to explore Jarrett’s mid-career work from his thirties. That’s a rich body of work, encompassing his American and Norwegian quartets, various keyboard projects, orchestral compositions, and even Jarrett’s debut as a classical pianist.

But this first decade set a high standard—not just for Jarrett, but for all his peers too. The body of work he left us from this period is still at the heart of his legacy, and marks a major contribution to modern American music.

Happy listening!

5 Ways SCRA Helps Strengthen Community Connections for Veterans

Veterans’ support can manifest through postponed court cases aside from traditional parades and speeches because it also includes reduced interest rates. The Servicemembers Civil Relief Act (SCRA) operates quietly to provide military families with additional breathing space through its background work.

The SCRA functions beyond administrative duties because it serves to protect military personnel both legally and by providing comfort to their civilian lives. Despite being made to protect individuals the SCRA produces wide-reaching impacts on communities which promotes better connections and stability for veterans.

The strength of a support network for veterans stems from one individual law. The following part of this text demonstrates how official documents create meaningful connections between people.

5 Ways SCRA Helps Strengthen Community Connections for Veterans

1. Reduced Interest Rates for Financial Relief

Financial survival and community involvement differ by only a single percentage under certain circumstances. Under the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act, you can find one of its most useful features, which reduces financial pressure beginning with your interest payments. Veterans can use this benefit as both an advantage to involvement and as a means to get involved.

The SCRA enables service members to reduce all pre-service debt interest rates to 6%. In actual scenarios, this interest rate reduction enables veterans to cut hundreds of dollars from their regular payments. With reduced interest rates, veterans gain the opportunity to dedicate their time to community involvement and local veteran events or participate in Little League coaching and town hall meetings.

The catch? The benefit isn’t automatic. To access this benefit you must show proof of military service to lenders through written documentation. The financial benefits of SCRA protection are substantial because they lead to reduced payments, lower stress, and additional flexibility to invest in personal needs as well as community initiatives.

The SCRA interest rate benefit helps reduce financial pressure on active-duty service members, allowing them to focus on their families, careers, and involvement in local community initiatives without being weighed down by high monthly payments.

2. Lease Termination Rights to Facilitate Stability

Rebuilding civilian life becomes difficult when you must continue lease payments on an apartment that no longer matches your needs. Transitions should not burden military families with penalties yet the SCRA protects them from such financial burdens.

Under the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act, veterans, together with active-duty members, hold the legal power to cancel residential leases without penalties and free from legal consequences when specific qualifying factors appear. Under the SCRA, veterans can escape paying for existing apartment costs when they relocate to a different city. Through this essential lifeline, veterans avoid unnecessary financial burdens and have the chance to establish their roots in the locations where they need to be.

The flexibility under the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act helps veterans establish community ties because it frees them from previous commitments. Through SCRA protections, you obtain the power to change careers or relocate to family while experiencing no negative consequences because of your military service—a critical advantage when many big life changes are happening simultaneously.

3. Protection Against Foreclosure for Veterans

After military service veterans struggle with financial instability because they battle both job search difficulties and money management issues within their households. The Servicemembers Civil Relief Act (SCRA) provides critical protections to veterans which combat their risk of foreclosure when they encounter financial difficulties.

The SCRA enables foreclosure delays until 12 months when military service impacts veterans’ ability to pay their mortgages. The courts need to issue a stay order of foreclosure or consent to loan modifications in response to specific requests. Through legal provisions, veterans obtain enough time to develop stable financial resources before fearing their home’s loss.

The protection against displacement through this benefit ensures both financial security and sound community stability for affected veterans. Veterans who sustain their home during transitional periods tend to stay connected locally and build stronger neighborhood relationships.

4. Legal Protections to Encourage Civic Participation

The military deployment period fails to stop legal proceedings, so missing court dates while serving in active duty leads to significant legal penalties. Veterans, together with service members, face default judgments along with missed deadlines, which creates an extensive series of complications that extend past judicial proceedings. Through the Service members Civil Relief Act (SCRA) the law protects military personnel from unfair legal progression when they are absent through its provision of court stays.

When military service keeps veterans from court attendance, the SCRA requires judicial stays to be issued by the courts. The law allows military members to obtain additional time to file legal documents and safeguards them from receiving default rulings. Active duty personnel who cannot participate receive mandatory legal counsel for the protection of their rights according to judicial appointment. The appointed legal counsel evaluates if your service duties prevent you from taking part in the legal proceedings.

The legal protection system creates more than administrative delays because it ensures veterans retain their right to defend themselves properly without facing consequences for military service. Through established protections, veterans can prioritize civic duties and community work because legal challenges cannot be used against them in their military service.

5. Facilitating Career Transitions and Community Engagement

Transitioning from a military structure typically leads people into unfamiliar territory. The transition to civilian life after military service becomes overwhelming for veterans who stay either short-term or long-term despite the disappearance of established routines and changes in their occupational roles. The SCRA supports veterans during their professional growth by implementing safeguards that ensure both legal and financial barriers do not hinder their development.

Protection against job discrimination functions as a vital mechanism through which the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act supports veterans during their reintegration process. Veterans have a legal right to employment opportunities free of discrimination based on their military experience, thus creating a secure environment in which to build job confidence. Veterans who begin their own business ventures will find that the SCRA offers financial flexibility together with legal support, which enables entrepreneurship to remain accessible after military service.

These safeguards help each veteran succeed while promoting active community participation. The SCRA enables veterans to establish careers while starting businesses which leads to their active involvement in the local economy and enhancing their connection with the communities they serve. This transition goes beyond normal change because it represents public growth along with personal development.

Conclusion

Under the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act, service members receive a dual-purpose defense alongside an opening opportunity for their reintegration. The fundamental mission of the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act exists to protect military personnel, yet its protective features extend their benefits to communities. The SCRA quietly establishes fundamental support for military personnel through debt relief, property protection, and legal defense because these components create space for active civic engagement and close community bonds.

Veterans who avoid unstable housing conditions alongside legal worries possess the ability to lead others and mentor them while making meaningful contributions through local business ownership or active civic participation. The SCRA provides veterans with more than theoretical advantages through its provisions which enable them to establish permanent roots in their adopted communities.

The SCRA provides support to military personnel which enables communities to prosper together with their veterans. Veterans who serve after military service continue their service by showing that extended support produces enduring results.

Photo at top: George Pak via Pexels


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Top 10 Tips for a Successful Homeschooling Experience

Imagine trying to navigate a ship without a map; that’s what homeschooling can feel like without strategic planning. You’ve got the freedom to explore various educational paths, but without clear goals and a solid routine, it’s easy to drift off course. Establishing a dedicated learning space and using diverse resources can anchor your efforts, but those are just the starting points. What other key elements can enhance your homeschooling journey and keep you on track? Let’s explore some essential tips that can make all the difference.

Set Clear Goals

Setting clear goals is essential for a successful homeschooling experience. When you define what you want your child to achieve, you create a roadmap that guides both your teaching and your child’s learning. These goals should be specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART). By doing this, you’ll not only clarify expectations for your child but also establish benchmarks to assess progress.

Start by identifying the key subjects or skills you want to focus on, whether it’s math, reading, or critical thinking. Break these down into smaller, manageable objectives that can be tackled week by week or month by month. This approach not only keeps your child engaged but also allows you to adapt your teaching methods based on their individual needs and interests.

Moreover, involving your child in the goal-setting process can enhance their motivation. Encourage them to express what they hope to learn or improve upon. By aligning their personal aspirations with your educational objectives, you cultivate a sense of ownership over their learning journey.

Ultimately, clear goals create a structured and purposeful environment, fostering a more effective and rewarding homeschooling experience.

Establish a Routine

Once you’ve defined clear goals for your homeschooling journey, establishing a routine can greatly enhance your child’s learning experience. A consistent schedule helps create a sense of security and predictability, allowing your child to focus better on their studies.

Here are three key components to take into account when crafting your routine:

  1. Set Regular Study Hours: Designate specific times for lessons, breaks, and activities. This helps your child understand when it’s time to learn and when it’s time to relax.
  2. Incorporate Variety: While consistency is important, mixing up subjects and activities can keep your child engaged. Alternate between reading, hands-on projects, and outdoor learning to cater to different learning styles.
  3. Build in Flexibility: Life happens, and sometimes things don’t go as planned. Allow for some flexibility in your routine to accommodate unexpected events or days when your child needs a lighter schedule.

Create a Dedicated Space

Creating a dedicated space for homeschooling can greatly enhance your child’s focus and productivity. When you designate a specific area for learning, it signals to your child that it’s time to concentrate. This space should be free from distractions, such as televisions or toys, allowing your child to immerse themselves in their studies.

Consider the layout and organization of the space. A well-structured area that contains all necessary supplies—like books, stationery, and technology—can streamline the learning process. Make sure that the space is comfortable and well-lit, as these factors contribute to a conducive learning environment. Ergonomic furniture can also make a significant difference in maintaining focus during extended study sessions.

Involve your child in the process of setting up this space. Letting them choose decorations or organize materials can foster ownership and motivation.

Additionally, make certain the area reflects your child’s personality and interests, making it an inviting place to learn.

Incorporate Varied Learning Styles

A dedicated learning space not only helps your child focus, but it also provides the perfect backdrop for incorporating varied learning styles into your homeschooling approach.

Recognizing that each child learns differently is essential for their academic success. By actively engaging with diverse methods, you can cater to your child’s unique strengths and preferences.

Here are three effective strategies to incorporate varied learning styles:

  1. Visual Aids: Use charts, diagrams, and videos to support visual learners. Colorful materials can capture their attention and enhance understanding.
  2. Hands-On Activities: For kinesthetic learners, incorporate interactive projects or experiments. Allow them to manipulate materials, create models, or engage in role-playing to solidify concepts through movement.
  3. Auditory Learning: Include discussions, audiobooks, or podcasts for those who learn best through listening. Encouraging your child to explain topics out loud can also reinforce their understanding.

Utilize Online Resources

Tapping into online resources can greatly enhance your homeschooling experience. With a wealth of information at your fingertips, you can tailor your curriculum to meet your child’s unique needs and interests.There are several websites offering free courses in a variety of subjects, and platforms that provide access to elementary schools online can help you build a well-rounded curriculum tailored to younger learners.

You can also explore educational YouTube channels, which provide engaging video lessons and demonstrations that can clarify complex concepts. Interactive websites like Quizlet enable you to create customizable study aids that cater to different learning styles, making learning more enjoyable for your child.

Consider joining online homeschooling communities or forums where you can exchange ideas, resources, and support with other parents. These platforms often share valuable insights and recommendations that can save you time in your curriculum planning.

Lastly, don’t overlook the power of educational apps. Many apps focus on specific skills, from math to language learning, offering interactive experiences that can reinforce what you’ve taught.

Foster Social Connections

While online resources are invaluable for educational growth, fostering social connections is equally important for your child’s development.

Social interactions can enhance your child’s emotional intelligence and communication skills, preparing them for future relationships and teamwork.

Here are three effective ways to help your child build a supportive social network:

  1. Join Local Homeschool Groups: These groups often host meet-ups, field trips, and educational events, providing opportunities for your child to connect with peers who share similar interests.
  2. Participate in Extracurricular Activities: Encourage your child to join clubs, sports teams, or art classes in your community. These activities not only promote physical and creative skills but also offer a platform for social engagement.
  3. Arrange Playdates: Setting up regular playdates with other children can help your child develop friendships in a more relaxed environment. This can foster deeper connections and create a sense of belonging.

Encourage Independent Learning

Encouraging independent learning empowers your child to take charge of their educational journey, fostering a sense of ownership and responsibility. When you promote self-directed learning, you help your child develop critical thinking skills and a lifelong love for learning.

Start by giving them choices in their subjects or projects, allowing them to explore topics that genuinely interest them. This autonomy can ignite their passion and motivate them to dig deeper.

Set clear expectations while also allowing flexibility in how they meet those goals. Encourage your child to set their own deadlines, which helps them learn time management and accountability.

Provide resources like books, online courses, or educational videos, but let them decide how to use these tools.

Create a dedicated learning environment where they feel comfortable exploring ideas and asking questions. Regularly check in to discuss their progress, but resist the urge to micromanage.

Celebrate their achievements, no matter how small, to build their confidence.

Keep Detailed Records

Keeping detailed records is essential for tracking your child’s progress and ensuring you meet educational requirements. By maintaining thorough documentation, you can evaluate your child’s strengths and areas for improvement, making adjustments where necessary.

Plus, having a clear record can help during assessments or if you decide to shift back to traditional schooling.

Consider the following key aspects for effective record-keeping:

  1. Daily Logs: Keep a daily log of subjects covered, activities completed, and time spent on each topic. This helps you visualize your child’s learning journey.
  2. Assessment Records: Document quizzes, tests, and other forms of assessments. Tracking scores and feedback allows you to identify trends in your child’s understanding and retention.
  3. Portfolio of Work: Create a portfolio that includes samples of your child’s work, projects, and creative endeavors. This not only showcases their progress but also provides a tangible reflection of their learning experiences.

Stay Flexible and Adaptable

Embracing flexibility and adaptability in your homeschooling approach can greatly enhance your child’s educational experience. When you remain open to change, you create an environment where learning can thrive. Each child is unique, and their needs may evolve over time.

By staying flexible, you can adjust your curriculum, teaching methods, and daily schedules to better suit their interests and learning styles. For instance, if your child struggles with a particular subject or shows a keen interest in another, don’t hesitate to shift your focus. This adaptability not only supports their academic growth but also fosters a love for learning.

Additionally, unexpected events or challenges may arise—whether it’s a family emergency or a new hobby your child wants to pursue. Being willing to adapt can alleviate stress and keep your homeschooling experience enjoyable.

Incorporating breaks, exploring new resources, or even changing your teaching environment can also invigorate the routine. Remember, the goal is to create a supportive and engaging learning atmosphere.

Connect With Other Homeschoolers

Connecting with other homeschoolers can greatly enrich your educational journey. Building a supportive network not only provides valuable resources but also fosters motivation and community.

Here are three effective ways to connect with fellow homeschoolers:

  1. Join Local or Online Groups: Look for local homeschooling organizations or online forums. These platforms offer a wealth of information, from curriculum recommendations to social events.
  2. Attend Workshops and Conferences: Participating in homeschooling workshops or conferences exposes you to new teaching methods and allows you to meet like-minded families. These events often feature expert speakers who can provide insights into effective homeschooling strategies.
  3. Organize Co-ops or Study Groups: Collaborating with other families can enhance your curriculum and provide a more diverse learning environment. By forming co-ops or study groups, you can share resources, plan field trips, and create a social atmosphere for your children.

Connecting with others in the homeschooling community not only alleviates feelings of isolation but also enriches your educational experience.

Conclusion

To summarize, successful homeschooling hinges on your ability to set clear goals, adapt to your child’s needs, and create a supportive learning environment. Have you considered how these strategies can transform your homeschooling journey? By embracing flexibility, encouraging independence, and connecting with other homeschoolers, you’ll cultivate a rich educational experience. Remember, the key is to stay engaged and responsive to your child’s unique learning style, ensuring they thrive in their academic pursuits.

Photo at top: Kaboompics.com via Pexels


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The Republican Assault on Medicaid Can Be Stopped

Believe it or not, this man may not have your best interests at heart. (photo by Gage Skidmore)

Very soon, congressional Republicans will unveil their plan to take a chainsaw to Medicaid, one of the most worthwhile and beloved federal programs in existence. The assault is unlike anything they have attempted before: sweeping in its ambition, catastrophic in its likely effects, and abhorrent in its motives. This can and should be one of the most high-profile and consequential policy showdowns of the second Trump administration.

The Medicaid cuts are just one part of a gigantic budget bill that will emerge from the congressional abattoir dripping with the viscera of critical programs gutted or cancelled outright. But it deserves a special focus, especially since Medicaid now covers over 71 million Americans, with another 7 million kids on its subsidiary program CHIP. The stakes are incredibly high, and Democrats could not find a better issue on which to fight Trump and his allies.

But since it’s health policy, it’s complicated. Which is why I thought it might be useful to step back and focus on some core ideas that are most important for everyone — lay people, journalists, members of Congress — to keep at the top of mind as we begin to discuss the GOP attack on Medicaid, even if the policy details make your eyes glaze over.

  1. The whole purpose of this effort is to fund a tax cut for the wealthy.

Yes, Republicans don’t like Medicaid and never have (more on that in a moment). But in this budget, they are looking to cut hundreds of billions of dollars from the program for one central reason: to pay for an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cut, most of the benefits of which went to the wealthiest Americans. To pass that tax cut, they have to find over $4 trillion in cuts, and a big chunk of that is coming from Medicaid. It’s not complicated: Tax cuts for the rich, paid for by taking health coverage away from low-income people.

  1. The purpose and effect of every one of the programmatic changes Republicans are considering is to reduce the number of enrollees, i.e. kick people off their health coverage.

Republicans are negotiating among themselves over a variety of means by which to cut the program. They are almost certain to impose “work requirements,” which are actually paperwork requirements, on beneficiaries. They considered (but seem to have set aside for now) a plan to slash the amount the federal government pays states for those who enrolled as part of the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of Medicaid, which would have triggered a number of state laws requiring massive rollbacks of enrollment. They are still mulling caps on spending for those expansion enrollees. They want to bar states from imposing certain taxes on providers; take that away, and cuts to enrollment are the likely consequence. They want to force enrollees to prove their eligibility more often; in other words, erecting more bureaucratic hurdles. They want to make people pay more for their coverage.

Whichever of these ideas survive, they are all about finding ways to kick people off the program. Work requirements, for instance, would probably result in about 5 million people losing coverage, despite the fact that almost everyone on Medicaid either already works or has a valid reason for not working, like a disability or responsibilities as a caregiver. The point is to kick people off, period.

  1. Republicans want to punish people for having modest incomes.

Republicans would say that their most basic reason for looking to cut Medicaid is that they want government to be smaller. They do want that — but only when government is giving benefits to people they regard as morally unworthy. Their comments about Medicaid are riddled with moral condemnation, especially worries about “able-bodied” people getting health coverage, as though that were self-evidently repugnant. To listen to them, you’d think we were facing a national epidemic of laziness — but just among poor people — and the only solution is to punish as many people as possible by taking away their health coverage. If you haven’t heard them suggest that we should impose work requirements and drug testing on the mortgage interest deduction or the special tax treatment of capital gains, it’s because as far as they’re concerned, only poor people have to prove that they are morally worthy of receiving government benefits.

  1. The effect of the changes they are proposing would be a sicker population, damaged state budgets, and a worse economy.

Republicans almost never talk about the practical consequences these cuts are going to have, because they’re all negative. This should surprise no one, because when you kick someone off their health coverage, the effect on their life can range from problematic to catastrophic; multiply that effect millions of times and society as a whole will suffer. Expanding Medicaid saved large numbers of lives, just as you’d predict it would. When people have coverage, they can go to the doctor when they’re sick, illnesses are treated, and they can remain productive and support their families. Medicaid expansion improved state budgets, reduced poverty, boosted economic growth, and stabilized hospital finances, especially rural hospitals.

All of which is to say that kicking millions of people off Medicaid won’t just hurt them and their families, it will have damaging effects that radiate outward to the entire country.

  1. Whenever you hear Republicans say they’re going after “waste, fraud, and abuse” they’re lying.

There is Medicaid (and Medicare) fraud, but virtually none of it is from people getting on the program when they shouldn’t; most comes from providers submitting fraudulent claims (more on that here). Republicans almost never say what kind of “fraud” they’re concerned about, or how the proposals they’re offering would eliminate it. Just as Elon Musk’s destruction of the federal government isn’t really about “efficiency,” the GOP isn’t really going after waste, fraud, or abuse in Medicaid. Their problem is with the program itself.

This can be fought

It would be easy to despair, since Republicans seem determined to eviscerate Medicaid and they control Congress and the White House. But this is not over. There are multiple fractures within their party that can be exploited simply by focusing attention on this issue, which raises the political cost of doing what they want to do.

The first reason why is that cutting Medicaid is incredibly unpopular. Every poll that has been taken shows opposition on the order of two-thirds or more of the public. Trump’s own pollster has warned Republicans that cutting Medicaid to pay for tax cuts is rejected even by Trump voters. This isn’t an issue where the public is divided; people like Medicaid and don’t want to see it cut. That’s doubly true when the reason is to give a tax cut to the rich, which is also unpopular. “Republicans are going to do a thing you hate so they can do another thing you hate” is a pretty good message for Democrats.

Second, congressional Republicans are divided, with a significant group of vulnerable members from swing districts insisting that they don’t want big cuts, and hard-right conservatives insisting that there must be big cuts. Even some conservatives who want to position themselves as “populist” are pushing back:

“Twenty-one percent of my state is on Medicaid or CHIP,” Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri told reporters Tuesday. “They’re on Medicaid because they can’t afford anything else. They’re not on Medicaid because they’re lazy. They’re on Medicaid because health insurance is so dadgum expensive.”

“I don’t understand the argument that says, ‘Yes, congratulations working folks, you voted for Donald Trump, and now we’re going to take away your access to health insurance,’” he continued. “It seems insane to me.”

I don’t have a lot of love for Josh Hawley, but it’s great to see a Republican making these arguments. This is a classic “wedge issue,” the kind that unites your party and divides the other party; Democrats need to keep pressing on that wedge.

Republicans have not resolved this conflict and come up with a bill that will satisfy everyone in their party — and they need everyone for the bill to pass. The House is 220-213 Republican at the moment, which means they can only lose three votes; the more swing district members can be convinced that voting to cut Medicaid will end their careers, the more reluctant they’ll be.

Then there’s President Trump, who is clearly wary of Medicaid cuts. “They’re not cutting it,” he said in a recent interview. “They’re looking at fraud, waste and abuse.” He has also said repeatedly that Medicaid “isn’t going to be touched.” The clearer the political cost becomes, the more likely it is that he will pull the plug.

Which means that we all have power to stop this. That doesn’t mean there’s a happy ending waiting for us in which the program survives untouched; there will almost certainly be some damage one way or another. But Medicaid can be saved, if everyone makes enough noise.

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Jony Ive and Patrick Collison

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Thursday 8 May 1662

At the office all the morning doing business alone, and then to the Wardrobe, where my Lady going out with the children to dinner I staid not, but returned home, and was overtaken in St. Paul’s Churchyard by Sir G. Carteret in his coach, and so he carried me to the Exchange, where I staid awhile. He told me that the Queen and the fleet were in Mount’s Bay on Monday last, and that the Queen endures her sickness pretty well. He also told me how Sir John Lawson hath done some execution upon the Turks in the Straight, of which I am glad, and told the news the first on the Exchange, and was much followed by merchants to tell it. So home and to dinner, and by and by to the office, and after the rest gone (my Lady Albemarle being this day at dinner at Sir W. Batten’s) Sir G. Carteret comes, and he and I walked in the garden, and, among other discourse, tells me that it is Mr. Coventry that is to come to us as a Commissioner of the Navy; at which he is much vexed, and cries out upon Sir W. Pen, and threatens him highly. And looking upon his lodgings, which are now enlarging, he in passion cried, “Guarda mi spada; for, by God, I may chance to keep him in Ireland, when he is there:” for Sir W. Pen is going thither with my Lord Lieutenant. But it is my design to keep much in with Sir George; and I think I have begun very well towards it. So to the office, and was there late doing business, and so with my head full of business I to bed.

Read the annotations

The new Pope

Has taken a class in real analysis.

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"Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal"

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Higher After Trade Deal
Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K.
...
In the bigger picture, today's mortgage rate increase is unremarkable--sort of average--and it leaves the rate index well below the early April highs, despite being well above the range seen during the month of March.

llm-gemini 0.19.1

llm-gemini 0.19.1

Bugfix release for my llm-gemini plugin, which was recording the number of output tokens (needed to calculate the price of a response) incorrectly for the Gemini "thinking" models. Those models turn out to return candidatesTokenCount and thoughtsTokenCount as two separate values which need to be added together to get the total billed output token count. Full details in this issue.

I spotted this potential bug in this response log this morning, and my concerns were confirmed when Paul Gauthier wrote about a similar fix in Aider in Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview 03-25 benchmark cost, where he noted that the $6.32 cost recorded to benchmark Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview 03-25 was incorrect. Since that model is no longer available (despite the date-based model alias persisting) Paul is not able to accurately calculate the new cost, but it's likely a lot more since the Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview 05-06 benchmark cost $37.

I've gone through my gemini tag and attempted to update my previous posts with new calculations - this mostly involved increases in the order of 12.336 cents to 16.316 cents (as seen here).

Tags: paul-gauthier, gemini, llm, aider, generative-ai, llm-pricing, ai, llms

Introducing web search on the Anthropic API

Introducing web search on the Anthropic API

Anthropic's web search (presumably still powered by Brave) is now also available through their API, in the shape of a new web search tool called web_search_20250305.

You can specify a maximum number of uses per prompt and you can also pass a list of disallowed or allowed domains, plus hints as to the user's current location.

Search results are returned in a format that looks similar to the Anthropic Citations API.

It's charged at $10 per 1,000 searches, which is a little more expensive than what the Brave Search API charges ($3 or $5 or $9 per thousand depending on how you're using them).

I couldn't find any details of additional rules surrounding storage or display of search results, which surprised me because both Google Gemini and OpenAI have these for their own API search results.

Via Hacker News

Tags: anthropic, generative-ai, llm-tool-use, search, ai, llms, claude

Create and edit images with Gemini 2.0 in preview

Create and edit images with Gemini 2.0 in preview

Gemini 2.0 Flash has had image generation capabilities for a while now, and they're now available via the paid Gemini API - at 3.9 cents per generated image.

According to the API documentation you need to use the new gemini-2.0-flash-preview-image-generation model ID and specify {"responseModalities":["TEXT","IMAGE"]} as part of your request.

Here's an example that calls the API using curl (and fetches a Gemini key from the llm keys get store):

curl -s -X POST \
  "https://generativelanguage.googleapis.com/v1beta/models/gemini-2.0-flash-preview-image-generation:generateContent?key=$(llm keys get gemini)" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "contents": [{
      "parts": [
        {"text": "Photo of a raccoon in a trash can with a paw-written sign that says I love trash"}
      ]
    }],
    "generationConfig":{"responseModalities":["TEXT","IMAGE"]}
  }' > /tmp/raccoon.json

Here's the response. I got Gemini 2.5 Pro to vibe-code me a new debug tool for visualizing that JSON. If you visit that tool and click the "Load an example" link you'll see the result of the raccoon image visualized:

Render JSON from Gemini Image Generation tool. Paste Gemini JSON here: a bunch of JSON with a base64 encoded PNG. Then buttons to Load an example, or a really big (40MB) example or Render JSON. The Rendered Content shows a photograph of a raccoon in an open top bin holding a sign that says I heart trash.

The other prompt I tried was this one:

Provide a vegetarian recipe for butter chicken but with chickpeas not chicken and include many inline illustrations along the way

The result of that one was a 41MB JSON file(!) containing 28 images - which presumably cost over a dollar since images are 3.9 cents each.

Some of the illustrations it chose for that one were somewhat unexpected:

Text reads: "* ½ teaspoon Kashmiri chili powder (or paprika for milder flavor)" followed by a group photo of people in formal attire with black suits and light blue ties standing in rows outdoors, then "* ½ cup heavy cream (or coconut cream for vegan option)" followed by a close-up image of dried cumin seeds or similar brown spice.

If you want to see that one you can click the "Load a really big example" link in the debug tool, then wait for your browser to fetch and render the full 41MB JSON file.

The most interesting feature of Gemini (as with GPT-4o images) is the ability to accept images as inputs. I tried that out with this pelican photo like this:

cat > /tmp/request.json << EOF
{
  "contents": [{
    "parts":[
      {"text": "Modify this photo to add an inappropriate hat"},
      {
        "inline_data": {
          "mime_type":"image/jpeg",
          "data": "$(base64 -i pelican.jpg)"
        }
      }
    ]
  }],
  "generationConfig": {"responseModalities": ["TEXT", "IMAGE"]}
}
EOF

# Execute the curl command with the JSON file
curl -X POST \
  'https://generativelanguage.googleapis.com/v1beta/models/gemini-2.0-flash-preview-image-generation:generateContent?key='$(llm keys get gemini) \
  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \
  -d @/tmp/request.json \
  > /tmp/out.json

And now the pelican is wearing a hat:

A pelican with its wings outstretched wearing an inappropriate pink bowler hat. The hat looks a little bit pasted on.

Via Hacker News

Tags: vision-llms, text-to-image, gemini, generative-ai, ai, llms, vibe-coding, tools

Quoting Claude's system prompt

If asked to write poetry, Claude avoids using hackneyed imagery or metaphors or predictable rhyming schemes.

Claude's system prompt, via Drew Breunig

Tags: drew-breunig, prompt-engineering, anthropic, claude, generative-ai, ai, llms

Reservoir Sampling

Reservoir Sampling

Yet another outstanding interactive essay by Sam Rose (previously), this time explaining how reservoir sampling can be used to select a "fair" random sample when you don't know how many options there are and don't want to accumulate them before making a selection.

Reservoir sampling is one of my favourite algorithms, and I've been wanting to write about it for years now. It allows you to solve a problem that at first seems impossible, in a way that is both elegant and efficient.

I appreciate that Sam starts the article with "No math notation, I promise." Lots of delightful widgets to interact with here, all of which help build an intuitive understanding of the underlying algorithm.

Animated demo. As a slider moves from left to right the probability of cards drawn from a deck is simulated. Text at the bottom reads Anything older than 15 cards ago is has a less than 0.01% chance of being held when I stop.

Sam shows how this algorithm can be applied to the real-world problem of sampling log files when incoming logs threaten to overwhelm a log aggregator.

The dog illustration is commissioned art and the MIT-licensed code is available on GitHub.

Via Hacker News

Tags: explorables, sam-rose, algorithms, rate-limiting, logging

Quoting Oleg Pustovit

Microservices only pay off when you have real scaling bottlenecks, large teams, or independently evolving domains. Before that? You’re paying the price without getting the benefit: duplicated infra, fragile local setups, and slow iteration.

Oleg Pustovit, Microservices Are a Tax Your Startup Probably Can’t Afford

Tags: software-architecture, startups, microservices

Quoting Ashley Willis

But I’ve also had my own quiet concerns about what [vibe coding] means for early-career developers. So much of how I learned came from chasing bugs in broken tutorials and seeing how all the pieces connected, or didn’t. There was value in that. And maybe I’ve been a little protective of it.

A mentor challenged that. He pointed out that debugging AI generated code is a lot like onboarding into a legacy codebase, making sense of decisions you didn’t make, finding where things break, and learning to trust (or rewrite) what’s already there. That’s the kind of work a lot of developers end up doing anyway.

Ashley Willis, What Even Is Vibe Coding?

Tags: vibe-coding, ai-assisted-programming, ai, generative-ai

Will Trump Pretend to Fix What He Broke?

The Trump administration is planning to announce its first trade deal today, with Britain. Except it won’t be a deal; more of a “deal.” Reportedly it will mainly be a “framework” for an actual deal that may or may not happen sometime in the future. This is the tariff equivalent of “concepts of a plan” for health care.

In other words, this will be smoke and mirrors, an attempt to persuade the gullible that Trump’s tariffs are actually working. Markets — driven by small investors who seem desperate to believe that the people in charge have some idea what they’re doing — may briefly bounce on the announcement.

Trump, however, has already declared that the tariff that really matters right now, the prohibitive 145 percent rate on imports from China, won’t be coming down. That tariff has already caused a 30-40 percent drop in the volume of US-China trade, which, given the time it takes to ship stuff, guarantees a sharp increase in consumer prices and possibly empty shelves a few weeks from now.

But back to that UK “deal.” Nobody knows what will eventually come out of it, but we can be sure of one thing: It won’t lead to any significant opening of the British market to U.S. goods. Why? Because that market was already wide open before Trump stomped in.

The most important thing to understand about Trump’s trade war is that it’s an attempt to solve a problem that only exists in his imagination. He keeps insisting that other countries are engaged in unfair trade, but the reality is that most of our important trading partners impose very low tariffs on U.S. products:

Source.

You could argue that China is less open to trade than the tariff number suggests, because the government plays such a large role in the Chinese economy. But for Britain, Canada and the European Union Trump’s tariffs are a huge, destructive attempt to fix something that wasn’t broken. These nations can’t stop doing bad stuff on trade because they weren’t doing bad stuff before Trump came along.

What about America’s trade deficit? As economists have repeated ad nauseam, this deficit doesn’t reflect unfair foreign trade policies. It is, instead, the flip side of large flows of capital into the United States, which historically reflected the fact that the U.S. was perceived as an attractive place to invest. Even if Trump manages to score some actual deals, as opposed to concepts of deals, they won’t change that logic. If his strategy does manage to reduce the trade deficit, it will do so only by destroying America’s attractiveness to foreign investors, which may be an achievable goal.

But let me go back to the point that Trump’s tariffs are a response to a problem that didn’t exist. That’s actually an observation that goes beyond trade policy. The Trump team likes to claim that it inherited an economy in terrible shape. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, keeps claiming that the economy needs a “detox.”

In fact, however, when Trump took over the U.S. economy was in very good shape. Unemployment was around 4 percent, while inflation was at most a fraction of a percentage point above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Our productivity growth was the envy of the world. We had a trade deficit, but as I said, this mainly reflected America’s attractiveness as a place to invest.

It's true that Goldilocks now seems to be leaving the building, but that’s entirely — entirely — due to Trump himself. In discussing the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, Jerome Powell repeatedly talked about “uncertainty,” but the only reason things seem much more uncertain now than they did a few months ago is the chaos Trump has created.

And stuff like this doesn’t help:

Actually, I’m baffled by the quotation marks around “eggs.”

Anyway, aside from the attempt to bully the Fed, you should be worried by Trump’s evident disconnect from reality. Prices are, in fact, going up, with a notable upturn in the inflation expected by businesses:

So what will Trump do if, as seems likely, Monday’s report on consumer prices shows the first signs of accelerating inflation? Even more important, what will he do when the cutoff of imports from China really hits consumers? There’s no chance that he will admit that he was wrong. There’s a very good chance that he and his minions will soon begin trying to corrupt the economic data.

So should we celebrate the trade deal that will be announced today? No. It won’t solve any of the problems Trump has created. It will, if anything, offer Trump the temporary illusion of success, encouraging him to create even more problems.

MUSICAL CODA

SQLite CREATE TABLE: The DEFAULT clause

SQLite CREATE TABLE: The DEFAULT clause

If your SQLite create table statement includes a line like this:

CREATE TABLE alerts (
    -- ...
    alert_created_at text default current_timestamp
)

current_timestamp will be replaced with a UTC timestamp in the format 2025-05-08 22:19:33. You can also use current_time for HH:MM:SS and current_date for YYYY-MM-DD, again using UTC.

Posting this here because I hadn't previously noticed that this defaults to UTC, which is a useful detail. It's also a strong vote in favor of YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS as a string format for use with SQLite, which doesn't otherwise provide a formal datetime type.

Tags: sql, sqlite, datetime

Globalization did not hollow out the American middle class

For years, I’ve been calling for the U.S. to promote manufacturing. When Americans started getting excited about reindustrialization, I cheered. I was a big supporter of Joe Biden’s industrial policy, and I even praised Donald Trump for smashing the pro-free-trade consensus in his first term.

Trump’s tariffs haven’t changed my mind about any of that. Yes, the tariffs are a disaster. But they’re not a disaster because they promote manufacturing; indeed, they are deindustrializing America as we speak, by destroying American manufacturers’ ability to leverage supply chains and export markets. When America has finally realized the futility of Trump’s approach, it will be time to turn once again to the task of reindustrialization — in fact, that task will be even more urgent, given the damage that Trump will have done.

And yet at the same time, I think there’s a misguided narrative about globalization, manufacturing, and the American middle class that has taken hold across much of society. The story goes something like this:

In the 1950s and 1960s, America was a smokestack economy. Unionized factory jobs built a broad-based middle class, and we made everything we needed for ourselves. Then we opened up our country to trade and globalization, and things started going downhill. Wages stagnated due to foreign competition, and good manufacturing jobs were shipped overseas. American cities hollowed out, and we became a nation of winners and losers. The college-educated upper middle class thrived in their professional jobs, while regular Americans were forced to fall back on low-wage service work. Eventually the rage of the dispossessed working class boiled over, resulting in the election of Donald Trump.

You can see this narrative at work in Joe Nocera’s recent much-discussed post in the Free Press:

No one anymore, on the left or the right, denies that globalization has fractured the U.S., both economically and socially. It has hollowed out once-prosperous regions like the furniture-making areas of North Carolina and the auto manufacturing towns of the Midwest. It has been a driver of income inequality…Trump owes much of his political success to the fury that these realities aroused in working-class Americans.

“My dad ran factories in the Detroit supply-chain orbit,” Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar told me recently. “In the 1990s, the factories started shutting down. And when I would go home in the 2000s, half of my high-school classmates were on opioids.” She added, “The economic theories didn’t connect with the real world.”

Which raises an obvious question: Why did so many economists, policymakers, and journalists like me refuse to acknowledge the problems with neoliberalism for so long? Why were we so quick to label anyone who even flirted with the idea that maybe the U.S. should be protecting its industrial base, just as other countries did, as a Pat Buchanan-like fool?

One big reason was the most basic one: It meant low prices. Companies could keep their costs low by using China’s (and Mexico’s) comparative advantage: cheap labor. At the same time, companies like Walmart and Costco could buy goods directly from Chinese manufacturers, which invariably had lower prices than comparable American goods.

And you can see the narrative at work in a recent series of tweets by Talmon Joseph Smith:

Like all such narratives, this one consists of layers of myth wrapped around a core of truth. But not all grand economic narratives are created equal — in this case, the layers of myth are thick and juicy, while the core of truth is thin and brittle. Everyone knows about the China Shock paper and the collapse of manufacturing employment by about 3 million in the 2000s. That’s the core of the story, and it’s very real. But there are a lot of big important economic facts that place that story in perspective, which most of the people talking about this topic seem not to know.

Ultimately, the trade-driven collapse in manufacturing was only a small part of the economic story of America over the last half century.

America is not actually that globalized

Pundits and politicians alike talk incessantly about the flood of cheap Chinese goods into America. But overall, this is a small percent of what we buy. The U.S. is actually an unusually closed-off economy; as a fraction of GDP, imports are much lower than in most rich countries, and lower even than China:

Source: World Bank

Trade deficits are an even smaller amount of GDP. U.S. imports of manufactured goods minus exports are equal to about 4% of GDP per year. Our trade deficit with China is about 1% of GDP.

In terms of imported components, America manufactures most of what it uses in production. China’s exports to the U.S. are actually more likely to be intermediate goods rather than the consumer goods we see on the shelves of Wal-Mart — another thing the typical narrative misses. But even so, China makes only about 3.5% of the intermediate goods that American manufacturers need:

So if we eliminated trade deficits, would it reindustrialize America? Even assuming that we replaced the imports 1-for-1 with domestically made goods, the impact on manufacturing’s share of U.S. GDP would be fairly modest. Here’s Paul Krugman:

Last year the U.S. ran a manufactures trade deficit of around 4 percent of GDP. Suppose we assume that this deficit subtracted an equal amount from spending on U.S. manufactured goods. In that case what would happen if we somehow eliminated that deficit?

Well, it would raise the share of manufacturing in GDP — currently 10 percent — by less than 4 percentage points, because manufacturing firms buy a lot of services. A rough estimate is that manufacturing value-added would rise by around 60 percent of the change in sales, or 2.5 percentage points, implying that the manufacturing sector would be around a quarter larger than it is.

So even under the optimal scenario, if we totally eliminated the U.S. trade deficit, manufacturing would go from 10% of U.S. GDP to 12.5% — about the same as its share in 2007, and still far less than Germany, Japan, or China:

You can also see from this chart that other countries haven’t necessarily done an amazing job of protecting their industrial bases, as Nocera claimed; the manufacturing share of GDP is drifting down everywhere.

And this chart is also a hint that trade deficits and manufacturing aren’t as tightly linked as most people seem to think. France has become steadily less manufacturing-intensive since 1960, despite the fact that it historically had very balanced trade, and even ran big trade surpluses in the 90s and 00s. Meanwhile, out of all the countries on the chart, Japan has done the best job of preserving its manufacturing share since 2010, despite running a trade deficit over that time period.

So while we tend to focus a lot on the impact of trade on U.S. manufacturing, the truth is that there are much bigger forces at work there. Most of what the U.S. consumes is made here, and most of what the U.S. produces is consumed here, and eliminating trade deficits wouldn’t change either of those basic facts.

The American middle class was never hollowed out

Americans, as a people, are startlingly rich. This isn’t just true because a few very rich people pull up the average. If you take median disposable household income, the U.S. comes out way ahead of the pack:

Source: OECD via Wikipedia

Note that this includes taxes and transfers, including in-kind transfers like government-provided health care.

Other countries may have protected their manufacturing sectors, but middle-class Americans are richer than the middle classes in other countries.

And middle-class Americans’ income has not been stagnant over the years. Here’s real median personal income, which isn’t affected by the shift to two-earner families:

This is an increase of 50% since the early 70s. I wish it had been more, of course, and it has its ups and downs, but 50% is nothing to sneeze at.

As for middle-class wages, they’ve grown less than incomes, since some of the increased income has been in the form of corporate benefits (health care, retirement accounts), investment income, and government benefits. But they have still grown:

Source: EIG

Wage growth has resumed since the mid-1990s, despite increasing trade deficits. Note that the China Shock, which threw millions of manufacturing workers out of their jobs, utterly failed to stop wages from resuming their upward climb. Wage stagnation and hyperglobalization just don’t line up, timing-wise. Jason Furman has another good chart that shows this very clearly:

A lot of commentators have gotten so used to the idea that incomes are stagnant that they have trouble believing this data is correct. But as Adam Ozimek points out, the Economic Policy Institute — a pro-union think tank that frequently complains that wages are too low — chooses a very similar measure for median wages. EPI writes that wages “have not been stagnant”, but “have…been suppressed”.

And when we look at the lower percentiles of the wage distribution — the working class and the poor — we see that they’ve grown even more strongly, by over 40% since 1996:

Source: EPI

A $4/hr. raise (adjusted for inflation) might not sound like a big deal, but for a poor person it’s pretty huge.

Of course, as Autor et al. show in their famous “China Shock” paper, the harms from Chinese import competition were concentrated among a few workers in a few regions. 2 million workers were only 1.5% of the U.S. workforce at the time, but for that 1.5%, being thrown out of good manufacturing jobs was a heavy blow.

But even in those unlucky regions, the negative effects don’t look to have been permanent. Jeremy Horpedahl points out that wages for the poor in Flint, Michigan and Greensboro, North Carolina — two areas that Nocera claims were “hollowed out” — have actually increased, while middle-class wages have risen in the latter:

And when we look at median income, the two areas look like they’ve recovered their economic health over the last decade:

(Nor is this a composition effect from people moving out; Flint’s population has held roughly steady, while Greensboro’s population has continued to increase smoothly.)

How are the American middle class and working class prospering, if the good manufacturing jobs of yesteryear are all gone? Talmon Joseph Smith scoffs at “service economy jobs”, and Autor et al. find that manufacturing workers displaced by Chinese imports often took crappier, lower-paid jobs in the service sector.

But that describes the 2000s. The 2010s and 2020s have been very different. Deming et al. (2024) show that over the last 15 years, the boom in low-skilled service-sector jobs has gone into reverse, and Americans are instead flooding into higher-skilled professional service jobs:

“Go to college” turns out to have been good advice. The boom jobs of the new era are in things like management, STEM, education, and health care:

It took a couple decades, but we’re finding that Bill Clinton was right — the average American is smart and competent enough to do knowledge work. And it’s being reflected in wages and incomes.

Now, none of this is to say that manufacturing is unimportant. It’s important for national defense, obviously. I also think it’s important for building a balanced, well-rounded economy — adding high-tech manufacturing on top of America’s knowledge industries would make us even richer, and would help us pump up exports and take advantage of multiplier effects. Manufacturing is also ripe for a productivity boom after decades of stagnation.

But the master narrative of protectionism is simply much more myth than fact. Yes, Chinese import competition hurt America a bit in the 2000s. But overall, globalization and trade deficits are not the main reason that manufacturing’s role in the U.S. economy has shrunk. Nor has globalization hollowed out the middle class — because in fact, the middle class has not been hollowed out.

Once we accept that this common protectionist narrative is deeply flawed, we can begin to think more clearly about trade policy, industrial policy, and a bunch of other things.


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Links 5/8/25

Links for you. Science:

An Interview With A Fired USDA Agricultural Engineer
White House Proposal Could Gut Climate Modeling the World Depends On
This genetics firm didn’t resurrect the extinct dire wolf, but did achieve a breakthrough in hype
Inter-plasmid transfer of antibiotic resistance genes accelerates antibiotic resistance in bacterial pathogens
We Now Know How AI ‘Thinks’—and It’s Barely Thinking at All
Harvard Medical researcher sues NIH for cutting grant to study LGBTQ mental health

Other:

Please tell Elissa Slotkin she got 23,847 fewer votes in Michigan than Kamala Harris
Wisconsin Judge Monica Isham Threatens Not to Hold Court Over Hannah Dugan Arrest
Young men and women are taking the ‘gender gap’ to staggering new levels
Musk-owned company says it qualifies for federal contracts reserved for small businesses
Elon Musk’s Artificial God
When did people stop dancing at the club?
Your Home Without China
‘We no longer felt welcome nor safe’: Canadian snowbirds cashing out of U.S. for good
New study reveals wealth inequality was never inevitable
How can taxing foreign investors balance trade?
Indiana lieutenant governor calls Three-Fifths Compromise ‘a great move’: Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith (R) said the compromise ultimately helped end slavery, while historians generally agree it reinforced the power of slave states. (if you want to see what the Republican Party really thinks, look to the states)
Almost Pony Time
Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India in pivot away from China
Feel The Pain
More Americans are financing groceries with buy now, pay later loans — and more are paying those bills late, survey says (seems very bad!)
People in states with abortion bans are twice as likely to die during pregnancy
The Crisis at Social Security Illustrates Elon Musk and DOGE’s Plan: Explode the Number and Severity of Improper Payments.
The bastards of neoliberalism: The eccentrics of the new right aren’t rebelling against our political regime – they are its twisted successors.
Trump DOJ goon threatens Wikipedia: The interim US attorney for DC claims Wikipedia is ‘allowing foreign operatives’ to rewrite its website.
How to Lose a Tech War
Here’s the first U.S. citizen who is a political prisoner under the Trump regime
MN Republicans introduce vaccine criminalization bill drafted by Florida hypnotist
Democrats Need to Make Republicans Fear the Consequences of Attempting a Dictatorship
DOGE Worker’s Code Supports NLRB Whistleblower
How Gen Z Became the Most Gullible Generation
How Trump Worship Took Hold in Washington
Elon Musk messed around — and now he’s finding out
Trump’s Attack on ActBlue Just Blew Up in His Face

Homing pigeons fly by the scent of forests and the song of mountains

I assumed that birds use the geomagnetic field to fly halfway around the world. They don’t. Not all of them.

Homing pigeons, it turns out, use smell. At least for a few hundred miles. Although, at shorter distances:

within a familiar area, pigeons navigate by relying on landscape features memorised during their previous homing flights.

Beyond that… Forty years of olfactory navigation in birds (2013): "Forty years ago, Papi and colleagues discovered that anosmic pigeons cannot find their way home when released at unfamiliar locations."

The paper covers clever experiments that factor out magnetic and other mechanisms, and there’s evidence for the olfactory hypothesis:

Pigeons housed in aviaries provided with clockwise or counter-clockwise deflectors, once released, displayed a corresponding deflection in initial orientation.

Homing pigeons do particularly well in the Mediterranean "characterised by an environment richer in natural odours than elsewhere due to its high biodiversity of plant species."

Utterly fascinating to imagine what that smell-map is like:

the odour-based map does not have the structure of a map defined by a bicoordinate system, thereby giving the exact position and distance of two points with respect to each other. The olfactory map is supposed to provide information exclusively about the direction of displacement.

So homing pigeons don’t what3words themselves to a specific point but rather hot-and-cold themselves towards home.

They also memorise the smell-trajectory on the way out:

odours perceived during transportation indeed constituted a source of positional information

(Although it’s not essential.)

stable ratios, rather than the absolute concentrations, of at least three different volatile compounds are sufficient

It takes a while to learn. Homing pigeon navigational ontogeny (2024): "Learning of an olfactory map occurs during the first months after fledging, when pigeons memorize the odours carried by winds blowing at their home loft in association with the wind’s direction."

These are very dry statements. So there’s also Odors as navigational cues for pigeons (2020) talking about work in Tuscany:

Some of these compounds are emitted by trees, the pine fragrance one smells during a walk in the forest. Other pungent natural emissions come from the sea, while still further VOCs can be emitted from industry.

And what an insight into the world of a homing pigeon!


Beyond the smell-map range? Beyond ~200km, at a continental scale?

Homing pigeons listen to infrasound.

Infrasound detection by the homing pigeon: A behavioral audiogram (1979):

Homing pigeons could detect extremely low frequency sounds (infrasounds) as low as 0.05 Hz in a sound isolation chamber. …

Natural infrasounds come from many sources including weather patterns, topographic features, and ocean wave activity. Infrasounds propagate long distances and can be detected hundreds or even thousands of km away from their sources.

That is to say: "thunderstorms, magnetic storms, earthquakes, jet streams, mountain ranges, and rocket launchings" are all global landmarks for these birds.

Homing pigeons listen to the song of mountains and the ocean swell.

What a picture of our planet they have.


Although homing pigeons don’t rely on it, other birds do indeed use the geomagnetic field.

It’s in their eyes.

How evolution has optimized the magnetic sensor in birds (2024):

magnetoreception is based on a complex quantum mechanical process that takes place in certain cells in the retinas of migratory birds.

It’s migratory birds specifically: "cryptochrome 4 is more sensitive in robins than in chickens and pigeons."

Imagine being able to see an extra colour and that colour is north.


I went through a period attempting to imagine my way into the umwelt of a dog, how dogs perceive the universe (2004): "You don’t smell a lion, you smell 70% of the likelihood of a lion – is it nearby in space, or in time?"

There is no cognition step between sense and act with smell.

Smell is all about moving through the insides, through a field of intensities, of potential.

Whereas the world of vision, of surfaces, gives us room to think before acting.

Learning about homing pigeons takes me right back to those thoughts.


Auto-detected kinda similar posts:

Globalization did not hollow out the U.S. middle class

From Noah Smith:

Trade deficits are an even smaller amount of GDP. U.S. imports of manufactured goods minus exports are equal to about 4% of GDP per year. Our trade deficit with China is about 1% of GDP.

In terms of imported components, America manufactures most of what it uses in production. China’s exports to the U.S. are actually more likely to be intermediate goods rather than the consumer goods we see on the shelves of Wal-Mart — another thing the typical narrative misses. But even so, China makes only about 3.5% of the intermediate goods that American manufacturers need

…trade deficits and manufacturing aren’t as tightly linked as most people seem to think. France has become steadily less manufacturing-intensive since 1960, despite the fact that it historically had very balanced trade, and even ran big trade surpluses in the 90s and 00s. Meanwhile, out of all the countries on the chart, Japan has done the best job of preserving its manufacturing share since 2010, despite running a trade deficit over that time period.

Excellent throughout, do read the whole thing.

The post Globalization did not hollow out the U.S. middle class appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.1% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 3, 2025
Active inventory climbed 31.1% year-over-year

The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 31.1% higher than this time last year. This represents the 78th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale last week, crossing this threshold for the first time since December 2019.

New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rebounded, rising 9.3% year-over-year

New listings picked up last week, rising 9.3% compared to a year ago. The momentum from earlier this spring is still going strong, pointing to a lively market heading into late spring and early summer. Last week boasted the highest number of new listings since mid-2022.

The median list price was up 0.9% year-over-year

Home prices posted another slight gain this week, with the national median listing price rising 0.9% year-over-year.
Realtor YoY Active ListingsHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 78th consecutive week.  

New listings were the highest since 2022.

Median list prices are up slightly year-over-year.

The Main Trends in the Development of Modern Small-Arms

People’s need for modern small arms constantly grows, forcing manufacturers to actively develop their industry and find new ways to improve products. This process is rapidly gaining momentum and affects companies from different countries worldwide. It will allow us to form specific trends and determine current directions for developing small arms.

Application of modern materials

Until recently, most design elements of small arms were made of various metals. There was no alternative to them for a long time, but with the development of modern technologies, many polymers and composites have become more accessible to people. These modern materials have begun to be widely used in various fields of activity, including weapons production. Due to their characteristics, small arms developers have significantly reduced the weight of the models produced without creating problems with their strength and reliability. By widely using modern materials, manufacturers have eliminated such problems as fatigue during prolonged wearing weapons and the difficulty of transporting them. Experts do not doubt that the trend of using lighter materials will be relevant for a very long time, which means the chances for further development in this area are high.

Use of modular design

Comparing small arms of the recent past and present, everyone will notice that modern models consist of more components than their predecessors. This feature complicates new products’ production and assembly process but allows for their universalization. Following this trend, small arms produced today have a base section and many components attached to it. Thanks to modularity, owners of modern guns, rifles and pistols have unlimited opportunities to adapt to current environmental conditions, specific tasks, individual human needs, etc. Also, the modular design simplifies replacing damaged elements of small arms with new ones and makes it possible to repair them even in field conditions. The latter advantage is significant for models used in the military sphere. In this regard, new weapons with a modular design first go to soldiers and only become available to civilians.

Adaptation of weapons to work with various optics

Manufacturers of modern small arms try to make their products suitable for various tasks. To do this, developers pay great attention to the issues of its adaptation to work with such optical devices as civil and military night-vision rifle scopes, rangefinders, laser designators, etc. This process has become a visible trend that is relevant in all countries of the world. Following it, developers provide for the possibility of installing various optical devices on weapons, regardless of where and by whom they were produced. For this, universal types of mounts and other useful tricks are often used to simplify the lives of small arms owners. Because modern models are initially adapted to work with various optics, they are becoming more in demand among the military and civilians. This, in turn, allows manufacturers to win the competition and increase their income.

Increasing the safety of weapon operation

Another noticeable trend in the development of modern small arms is the desire of manufacturers to make their operation more predictable and less dangerous for the user. For these purposes, developers constantly improve the design and use additional safety features. This approach reduces the likelihood of accidental shots that can injure or even kill the owner of the small arms. In addition, manufacturers are actively working to protect their products from unauthorized access. For example, some companies are testing today, and others are already implementing protection using a fingerprint scanner and face recognition system. This will allow the owner of a small arms to avoid situations in which anyone possessing the weapon can fire. The trend towards improving the safety of pistols, shotguns and rifles is highly relevant today. This gives hope that it can minimize the number of unpleasant incidents and protect people from dangers associated with using small arms.

Integration with innovative technologies

Recently, small arms manufacturers came up with the idea of ​​integrating their products with other modern technologies. Many specialists (primarily military personnel) liked it, so it quickly became promising. Today, this idea is given more and more attention every year, and the first positive changes are already becoming noticeable even to civilians. All of the above has allowed us to form a new trend that will be relevant for many years. So far, the most significant progress has been achieved in integrating modern small arms with data networks. Theoretically, this will make it possible to collect real-time information about the user’s actions and exchange it to obtain a particular benefit (for example, on the battlefield). In addition, small arms developers are actively integrating them with various wearable gadgets (smart watches, VR and AR devices). In the future, this may help improve data exchange efficiency and awareness of events happening around.

Modern small arms are constantly being modernized. Their manufacturers introduce new technologies, apply innovative solutions, and implement unique ideas. All this allows us to formulate the main development trends briefly described in this article. Having carefully studied them, we can determine the directions in which changes should be expected in the near future and predict what small arms will be like in a few years.

Photo: Kaboompics.com via Pexels


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The post The Main Trends in the Development of Modern Small-Arms appeared first on DCReport.org.

Military satellite program highlights role of ‘mission integrators’

DoD's commercial tech push creates integration headaches

The post Military satellite program highlights role of ‘mission integrators’ appeared first on SpaceNews.

Wrestling with Originality

If you didn't make it yourself, can you really call it your own?

In this latest episode of Dream Logic, Karin talks about how working with AI feels like a wrestling match, a constant push and pull, a struggle to coax something fresh and original out of a system that wants to create the common. In this new episode of Dream Logic, we explore what this metaphorical grappling with generative AI feels like, how to build characters through hyper collage, and what we can really call our own when it comes to art.

Please share with the curious.

You can follow Dream Logic on Substack.

In the upper left corner, surrounded by blue arms and In the upper left corner, surrounded by blue arms and


Leshin to step down as JPL director

Laurie Leshin headshot

The director of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is leaving after three years on the job and will be replaced by a longtime lab official.

The post Leshin to step down as JPL director appeared first on SpaceNews.

IonQ to acquire Capella Space in bid to build ultra-secure quantum network

The quantum computing firm plans to build the first space-based quantum key distribution system

The post IonQ to acquire Capella Space in bid to build ultra-secure quantum network appeared first on SpaceNews.

Retired Air Force officer nominated to be NASA deputy administrator

The White House has nominated a former Air Force officer and advocate for the Space Force to be the deputy administrator of NASA.

The post Retired Air Force officer nominated to be NASA deputy administrator appeared first on SpaceNews.

Beyond Golden Dome: why effective missile defense begins far left of launch

Iceye Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imagery of NATO HQ in Brussels, Belgium. Credit: Iceye

As the United States advances its ambitious Golden Dome missile defense strategy, we face a critical question: what constitutes a truly comprehensive defense system? While advanced tracking capabilities, AI-enabled data […]

The post Beyond Golden Dome: why effective missile defense begins far left of launch appeared first on SpaceNews.

Sierra Space completes ground demo of navigation satellite for U.S. Space Force program

The demonstration, conducted in a laboratory using a “FlatSat” setup, tested Sierra Space’s satellite hardware and flight software

The post Sierra Space completes ground demo of navigation satellite for U.S. Space Force program appeared first on SpaceNews.

Silicon solar power specialist gets $21 million for mass production

New Mexico-based mPower Technology said May 8 it has raised about $21 million in a Series B funding round to mass-produce its silicon-based solar power modules.

The post Silicon solar power specialist gets $21 million for mass production appeared first on SpaceNews.

NASA backtracks on VIPER commercial partnership

The VIPER lunar rover.

NASA has canceled plans to find a commercial partner to launch a robotic lunar rover and will instead pursue “alternative approaches” to fly the mission.

The post NASA backtracks on VIPER commercial partnership appeared first on SpaceNews.

Commercial competition and cooperation at the moon

Intuitive Machines' IM-2 Athena lander nears the lunar surface prior to landing and toppling on its side. Credit: Intuitive Machines

The market for sending spacecraft to the moon would seem to be a competitive one. NASA continues to drive the most demand for commercial lunar landers through its Commercial Lunar […]

The post Commercial competition and cooperation at the moon appeared first on SpaceNews.

The best way to prepare humans for Mars? The moon.

Bypassing the moon and sending crews straight to Mars would be a serious error.

We’ve observed with concern a rising trend in human spaceflight discussions: the suggestion that we bypass the moon and send humans directly to Mars. In light of this, we believe […]

The post The best way to prepare humans for Mars? The moon. appeared first on SpaceNews.

Buzzing towers with the Navy’s space maverick

Scooter Altman

In this week's episode of Space Minds former Navy Captain, shuttle astronaut and current president of the Space operating group for ASRC Federal Scooter Altman reflects on his career, from Top Gun stunts to space missions, and explains why Mars is humanity's next big step.

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The armchair epistemologist

Point:

With my now famous never reason from a price change, I’ve revolutionized the field of epistemology.

Counterpoint:

Oh, come on, you didn’t even invent the phrase:

Point:

Associated with Friedman, but who coined the term?

As Tyler keeps saying, you need to ask follow-up questions to get to the truth.

Counterpoint:

Yes, but the idea is more important than the phrase, and you certainly didn’t invent the idea. The concept is widely understood by all competent economists.

Point:

Then why do so many economists assume that monetary policy was accommodative in 2008, when it was actually quite restrictive?

Counterpoint:

That’s what you say, but even your most distinguished supporter doesn’t buy that argument. Blogging doesn’t cut it; you need to publish in top journals.

Point:

This paper from 1989 was in the Journal of Political Economy, and is almost entirely an application of NRFPC. If everyone already knows this stuff, why was the paper treated as a significant new insight?

Counterpoint:

Even if you made a few contributions in the NRFPC area, that hardly counts as a major innovation in epistemology. That’s just one example; it would need to apply to a wide range of areas.

Point:

But I’ve also argued never reason from an interest rate change, and never reason from an exchange rate change and never reason from a wage change.

Counterpoint:

Interest rates, wages and exchange rates are prices.

Point:

I’ve argued never reason from a quantity change.

Counterpoint:

But that’s still a part of the broader identification problem. All those maxims are fundamentally about the need to avoid misinterpreting the supply and demand model.

Point:

What about never reason from an accounting identity?

Counterpoint:

Never reason from a tweet. Seriously, no competent economist would argue that you could reason from an accounting identity.

Point:

Peter Navarro has a PhD in economics from Harvard, and he used the national income identity to argue for high tariffs on imports. All signs point to Trump sharing Navarro’s view that imports reduce GDP. They just enacted one of the most consequential policy changes in recent memory, all based on the fallacy of reasoning from an accounting identity. That suggests it remains a major problem.

Even worse, textbooks often resort to reasoning from the GDP identity when they explain the Keynesian model.

Counterpoint:

OK, answer the following question: How is never reason from an X . . . any more impressive than other lame maxims like correlation doesn’t prove causation?

Point:

Correct, it is not more impressive. But correlation doesn’t prove causation is not a lame maxim, it’s really, really important insight. Think of these two maxims as follows:

  1. If X and Y are correlated, don’t automatically assume that one caused the other.

  2. Be careful assuming that a change in X will lead to a predictable change in Y.

In the first case, people wrongly infer causation from an observed correlation. In the second case, people wrongly predict correlation based on the movement of one of the two variables.

Counterpoint:

Let’s say I give you credit for the “Never reason from a . . .” phrase. It’s merely a bunch of words; what matters is the underlying model, and you haven’t made a name for yourself in the field of economics.

Point:

Deirdre McCloskey says that it’s not good enough to come up with boring technical models; you need persuasive arguments to capture people’s attention. Catchy rhetoric is not merely a bunch of words; it’s how we persuade our colleagues of new ideas.

Counterpoint:

But that’s the problem, isn’t it? If your idea actually had been influential, ChatGPT would not be citing Milton Friedman as the inventor of the “never reason from a . . . “ meme.

Face it, you lost. You’ve always been a nobody, and always will be.

Point:

When my commenters troll me in that fashion, I feel like I’ve won. Why would they feel a need to attack me so viciously if I really were a nobody?

Counterpoint:

But I’m not a commenter; I’m a figment of your imagination, like that Ron Vara guy created by Peter Navarro. Don’t you think it’s kind of pathetic to invent a debate with an imaginary person?

Point:

Pathetic? One more insult and I’ll start writing dialogue that makes you look really bad; I’ll humiliate you in front of my readers.

Thursday assorted links

1. Reasons to write for the LLMs.

2. Astral Codex on Moldbug.

3. How the US built 5000 ships during WWII.

4. Using machine learning to understand chimpanzee social negotiation.

5. Okie dokie, and some more okie dokie.

6. “Government spending as a share of GDP in Argentina fell from 22.3 to 15.6% in Javier Milei’s first year in office.”

7. Illinois Tech establishes first U.S. campus in India.

8. Joseph Nye, RIP.

9. FDA announces aggressive AI rollout.

The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Discover the 0xProcessing Blog: Insights on Crypto Payments and Web3 Finance

The financial system is undergoing a profound transformation. From how we pay online to how we think about economic sovereignty, cryptocurrencies are redefining the rules — for businesses, governments, and individuals alike.

At 0xProcessing, we believe this shift needs to be understood, not feared. That’s why we’ve built a blog dedicated to exploring how crypto payments work, how to adopt them safely, and how they intersect with issues like privacy, cross-border trade, and financial access.

What We Write About — and Why It Matters

While the crypto industry often speaks in jargon, we take a different approach. Our blog is designed for decision-makers, business owners, developers, and curious readers who want real insights — not just market hype.

Here’s what you’ll find:

The Mechanics of Crypto Payments

We break down how crypto works in practice:
What does it take to accept Bitcoin or USDT?
How can businesses integrate crypto without exposing themselves to risk?
What’s the difference between a static wallet and a Web3 checkout?

Our guides are practical, based on real integrations, and written in plain English.

Wallets, Platforms, and Real-World Reviews

Crypto isn’t just about currency — it’s also about tools.
We review wallets, compare platforms, and explain the difference between custodial and non-custodial setups.

Whether you’re exploring blockchain for nonprofit donations, political fundraising, or international freelance payments — we help you choose infrastructure that matches your values and your budget.

Economic Transparency and Financial Resilience

One of crypto’s biggest promises is transparency. Blockchain makes financial flows traceable — and sometimes, that’s exactly what’s needed to fight corruption, expose inefficiencies, or create trust in borderless ecosystems.

We explore topics like:

  • How blockchain auditability compares to traditional finance
  • Why stablecoins are a growing tool in humanitarian aid
  • How businesses in high-inflation economies use crypto to survive
  • The risks of centralization in the “decentralized” world

Voices From the Ground: Lessons From Our Work

As a crypto payment infrastructure company, 0xProcessing doesn’t just write about the ecosystem — we’re part of it.
Every day, we help platforms, marketplaces, and financial teams across the globe launch crypto solutions that are secure, scalable, and stable.

In our blog, we share lessons learned: from managing transaction risk and fraud scoring to building hybrid (hot + cold) wallet architecture, and ensuring AML/KYC compliance — all without sacrificing decentralization.

Who Should Read Our Blog?

We write for people who care about:

  • Financial freedom and transparency
  • Secure and ethical technology
  • Economic inclusion
  • Responsible decentralization

Whether you’re a policy thinker, tech journalist, nonprofit director, developer, or simply curious — this blog was made for you.

Read, Think, Share

Crypto isn’t going away.
The question is whether we will shape its direction — or let it be shaped for us.

Visit the 0xProcessing Blog to explore honest, accessible, and research-driven insights about where crypto payments are headed.

No buzzwords. No promises of overnight riches. Just real information for a more resilient digital economy.

Photo: Ivan Babydov via Pexels


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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 1.8% Year-over-year

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 May
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 May. ...

27 April through 3 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

Occupancy: 65.8% (+1.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.33 (+2.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.06 (+4.1%)

Performance growth was lifted early in the week on the positive side of the Passover calendar shift.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below both last year and is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

What happens when a hegemon falls?

Why economists are turning to a 50-year-old book on the Depression

America and China prepare for an Alpine trade clash

Might tariffs fall from their mountainous highs?

Global turmoil has at least one beneficiary: currency traders

The foreign-exchange market has been reinvigorated by recent events

How Saudi Arabia is cranking up the pressure on its OPEC allies

Will oil prices fall much further?

Trump is a threat to Asia’s giant insurers

Not just its exporters

Why Gen X is the real loser generation

Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000

The DOL reported:
In the week ending May 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 241,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 226,000.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 227,000.

The previous week was unrevised.

Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.

[RIDGELINE] A Short Walk to a Little Bookshop

Ridgeline subscribers — That’s Things Become Other Things, up in the window of what is — IMHO — one of the greatest bookstores in the world. I think it’s worth taking a beat to note why the store feels so good and, ultimately, how deceptively simple the ingredients of that goodness are. The store in question is Three Lives & Company. It’s a great name. In a great little neighborhood (the West Village (Manhattan)) which puts it off to a great start.

Aftermath

Aftermath:

Welcome to Aftermath, a worker-owned, reader-supported news site covering video games, the internet, and the cultures that surround them.

You might remember most of us from Kotaku, where we broke news, covered events, and brought you hard-hitting investigations. You might also have seen us at Motherboard by Vice, The Verge and The Washington Post’s games vertical Launcher. We got back together to start this site not just so we could all blog together again, but to try something new for ourselves and for games journalism.

These days it’s tough for journalism, especially about games. The past few years have seen mass layoffs and site closures, with remaining writers being asked to do more and more with less and less. The ad-supported model is crumbling, social media is a mess, and the businessmen and private equity firms buying up news outlets don’t care about workers, readers, and quality writing, they only care about profits. The five of us saw our sites closed, ourselves and our colleagues laid off, and our workplaces turned hostile in management’s pursuit of growth at all costs. [...]

As workers and owners, we’re beholden to no one but ourselves, and to you, our readers. When you subscribe, you’ll get access to writing that pursues the truth and casts a critical eye on gaming and the internet, that doesn’t need to placate capital or kowtow to PR. You’ll be supporting the kind of journalism our past experience has shown us you like best: honest and irreverent, written for people rather than SEO. You’ll get a site that prioritizes the reader experience, with no invasive popups or ads that burn up your device.

They’re a smart crew, so of course, they’re not launching this on Substack. (They’re using a platform called Lede, upon which the excellent Defector has built itself.) How can you not love a site with this ode to a classic bit of kit: “Bring Back Those Long-Ass Game Show Mics”. An elegant weapon, from a more civilized age.

 ★ 

Polygon Gutted by Large-Scale Layoffs After Sale to Sweatshop Aggregator Valnet

Kyle Orland, reporting for Ars Technica last week:

Vox Media has sold video game specialist website Polygon to Internet brand aggregator Valnet, the publisher of content-churning sites including Game Rant, OpenCritic, Android Police, and Comic Book Resources. The move comes alongside significant layoffs for veteran journalists at the 13-year-old outlet, including co-founder and editor-in-chief Chris Plante and Senior Writer Michael McWhertor. [...]

Polygon was founded in 2012 when Vox Media spent significant money to poach top journalists from popular gaming blogs like Kotaku, Joystiq, and The Escapist. After initially publishing as the Gaming section of Vox.com for a few months, the Polygon domain launched alongside a series of flashy videos hyping up the staff’s lofty goals for video game journalism. In the years since, Polygon has become a respected source for news and views on the gaming and entertainment industries — one that Ars Technica has cited frequently during my tenure as senior gaming editor. [...]

According to publications like The Wrap and Aftermath, numerous Valnet writers have claimed that they receive low pay for long articles, but Valnet insists that working conditions are good. It even sued The Wrap in federal court, saying that Valnet “relies on its reputation as a supporter of high-quality journalism and of talented writers and editors to staff its ever-growing business and need for engaging and well-written content.”

Just brutal. I’m not huge into games, but Polygon has been one of my go-to sources for game-related news for years. If I wanted to catch up on something like, say, Nintendo’s Switch 2 announcements, I knew I could go to Polygon and they’d have the coverage nailed. Polygon was everything you could want: good writing, good design, no hype, trustworthy coverage and analysis.

There’s very little good news in media these days. The only talented people I see launching new things are doing it on Substack, and I think that’s going to end poorly for all of them.

 ★ 

Eddy Cue, on the Stand in U.S. v. Google Trial, Says Apple Is Eying a Move to AI in Safari

Bloomberg:

Apple Inc. is “actively looking at” revamping the Safari web browser on its devices to focus on AI-powered search engines, a seismic shift for the industry hastened by the potential end of a longtime partnership with Google.

Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of services, made the disclosure Wednesday during his testimony in the US Justice Department’s lawsuit against Alphabet Inc. The heart of the dispute is the two companies’ estimated $20 billion-a-year deal that makes Google the default offering for queries in Apple’s browser. The case could force the tech giants to unwind the pact, upending how the iPhone and other devices have long operated. [...]

Cue said he believes that AI search providers, including OpenAI, Perplexity AI Inc. and Anthropic PBC, will eventually replace standard search engines like Alphabet’s Google. He said he believes Apple will bring those options to Safari in the future. “We will add them to the list — they probably won’t be the default,” he said, indicating that they still need to improve. Cue specifically said the company has had some discussions with Perplexity.

“Prior to AI, my feeling around this was, none of the others were valid choices,” Cue said. “I think today there is much greater potential because there are new entrants attacking the problem in a different way.”

If they can pay, Apple will listen. And I don’t think it’s bullshit, at all, that traditional web search is actually going into decline now because of AI. Honestly at this point it would be weird if it weren’t.

But. Let’s say Apple would prefer for the current arrangement between Apple and Google to continue as is. But it’s under threat as a remedy in Google’s monopoly case. Is this not the perfect testimony? Traditional web search is in decline, usage-wise — and Apple is considering deals with multiple upstarts. I think it’s all true. But I also think it helps make the case that the current deal between Apple and Google should not be disallowed.

I don’t think there’s any bullshit here. I think we’re at a highly competitive moment between browsers and old-school search and new-school AI. And I think Eddy Cue is right in the middle of it.

 ★ 

This is Vindication???

Joe Nocera has a strange piece in the Free Press arguing that the “godfathers of protectionism” have been vindicated. It begins with a story about how Dani Rodrik couldn’t get a famous economist to endorse his book Has Globalization Gone Too Far? because doing so would arm the barbarians. Well give that reluctant economist a Nobel! because they were obviously correct. Tyler made the same point in his debate with Rodrik. Rodrik had no answer.

The piece is strange because there is little to no connection with any data; just assertion, vibe, and non-sequitur. Most bizarrely but hardly alone was this bit:

In the 1980s, Prestowitz was an official in Ronald Reagan’s Commerce Department, back when Japan, not China, was the trading partner the U.S. most feared. Japanese autos, televisions, washing machines, and all sorts of consumer electronics were flooding into the U.S., forcing American auto makers to close factories and even putting U.S. companies like Zenith out of business. Yet Japan was using tariffs and other less obvious trade barriers to prevent U.S. companies from exporting many of their products to Japan. It was protecting certain key industries from foreign competition.

This was not how the rules of free trade were supposed to work. Prying that market open, forcing Japan to play by the same rules as the U.S., was Prestowitz’s job.

He found it deeply frustrating. “Every time we completed a trade negotiation,” Prestowitz told me, “some economist would turn out a model to show that the deal was going to create X number of American jobs and would reduce the trade deficit by Y. And it never happened.”

Even more galling, he said, “The conventional response among economists was that it didn’t matter.” After all, even if Japan was keeping U.S. products out of its market, America still benefited from low-cost imports. Prestowitz has a vivid memory of a conversation he once had with Herbert Stein, President Richard Nixon’s former chief economist. “The Japanese will sell us cars,” Stein told him with a shrug, “and we’ll sell them poetry.”

Prestowitz also remembers the abuse he took for his views. “I was a Japan-basher, a protectionist, and so on,” he said. Paul Krugman, who was not yet a New York Times columnist but was already an influential economist, called Prestowitz “an intellectual snake-oil salesman” in a book he wrote called Pop Internationalism. The book, published in 1997, consisted of a half-dozen essays, each of which brutally attacked one or another of the handful of people who dared to say that globalization was less than perfect. (He described then-Labor Secretary Robert Reich as “not a serious thinker,” and Lester Thurow, the best-selling author and Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist, as “silly.”)

When I asked Prestowitz recently if he felt vindicated, he admitted that he did, but added that “I also feel a sense of loss that it took us so long to face reality and at such cost.”

Well here is data on GDP per capita in real terms in Japan and the United States since 1990. This is vindication???!

Or how about this:

No one anymore, on the left or the right, denies that globalization has fractured the U.S., both economically and socially. It has hollowed out once-prosperous regions like the furniture-making areas of North Carolina and the auto manufacturing towns of the Midwest.

Well the far left and the far right agree that America has become fractured and hollowed out, the Bernie Sanders-Donald Trump horseshoe. But both are wrong. For the rest of us in the happy middle, consider this–Hickory, North Carolina, once known as the furniture capital of the United States, did face some hard times. But in 2023 Travel and Leisure magazine named Hickory the most beautiful and affordable place to live in the United States! Writing:

Located in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, Hickory is a family-friendly destination known for its ample hiking trails and Southern charm. Currently ranked as the cheapest place to live in the U.S., Hickory has a median home price of $161,000. This affordable neighbor to the east of Asheville and north of Charlotte is popular with retirees, but it’s also becoming more attractive to young families; a steady stream of residents has been flocking here for its newfound fame as a technological hub for Google and Apple.

Doesn’t sound hollowed out to me.

The godfathers of protectionism haven’t been vindicated—but if they want to claim credit for President Trump’s tariff binge they’re welcome to it.

Addendum: Hat tip to Scott Lincicome on Hickory and do read Jeremy Horpedahl for details on the distribution of wages. Did you know, for example, that median weekly earnings for full time workers who graduated high school but are without a college degree are at an all time high? Switched earlier current for constant $2021 dollars in graph.

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Avoiding pharma dependence on China

Research-intensive pharmaceutical companies have also warned that low prices paid by European health systems are driving new drug discovery efforts to the US and China.

China.  Here is the FT source, with plenty of interesting additional information.  It is a common charge that libertarians or classical liberals had no suggested remedy for the growing U.S. dependence on China in biomedical supply chains.  But of course we did.  Many of us have been saying, for many years, that Europe should be paying much higher prices for pharma contracts.  That in turn would have allowed more pharma production to have remained with our European allies, to our benefit and theirs.  We also have been wanting to make it much easier to build and maintain pharma factories in the United States.  Here is o3 on all the legal and regulatory obstacles to building pharma plants in the United States.

As a good rule of thumb, when someone says “group X never has dealt with problem Y,” usually it is wrong.  (One possible remedy here is to do an o3 search.)  A corollary principle is when someone says “Tyler Cowen never has dealt with problem Y” that usually is wrong too.

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Empty Land Doesn’t Vote (and Neither Do Kangaroos): What Australian and Canadian Election Maps Do (and Don’t Do) About It

Both Australia and Canada had federal elections last week. Both countries have overwhelmingly urban populations (Australia 87%, Canada 82%) and vast tracts of sparsely populated territory, which means that strictly geographical election maps of both… More

Deconstructing the Colosseum

3D digital rendering of a cross-section of a Roman amphitheatre, showing architectural details and a large crowd inside.

To understand the architectural genius of the Colosseum and its symbolic meaning for ancient Rome, it helps to take it apart

- by Aeon Video

Watch at Aeon

The ecstatic swoon

Painting of a girl with a pearl earring in an ornate frame, viewed by three people in a gallery setting.

As Stendhal knew, the reason for art is to make you feel. Do not try to grasp the artwork: allow it to grasp you instead

- by Robert D Zaretsky

Read at Aeon

Some of the cardinals tasked with choosing a replacement for Pope Francis have watched the Hollywood movie Conclave in preparation for the real-life process. “So many of the conclave participants have little experience of Vatican politics and protocol.”

💬 Join the discussion on kottke.org

Politicians and statistics

 Statistics and politics go back along way: the word "statistics" apparently comes from "state" as in data about the state.

 Nature has a book review of

Politicians Manipulating Statistics: How they Do it and How to Oppose Them, by Michael Billig & Cristina Marinho Cambridge Univ. Press (2025)

Why politicians manipulate statistics — and what to do about it
Understanding the playbook that those in power use to twist numbers, and how they make others complicit, is only becoming more important in the post-truth world.

Book review By Ole J. Forsberg 

"Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the name Donald Trump looms large in this book, with a whole chapter devoted to the statistical misdemeanours of the “master manipulator”, from his first term in office to the aftermath of his defeat by Joe Biden in the 2020 US presidential election. 

...

"First, politicians manipulate statisticians, incentivizing them to produce manipulated statistics. Second, statisticians generate those manipulated numbers. Third, leaders use the manipulated statistics to manipulate their audiences."


How the US Built 5,000 Ships in WWII

Among the most impressive manufacturing achievements of the US during WWII was the number of ships it produced. Prior to the war, the American shipbuilding industry had been moribund. Shipyards had been busy during and immediately following WWI, but the huge flood of wartime ships greatly reduced demand for new ones, and American shipyards didn’t produce a single oceangoing hull between 1922 and 1928. The onset of the Great Depression only made things worse, and by 1935 annual tonnage produced by US commercial shipbuilders had fallen to its lowest level in more than 100 years.

But under wartime pressure, the US scaled up its shipbuilding enormously. While the US built just 1.4 million gross tons of merchant cargo-carrying ships from 1933 to 1939, between 1939 and 1945 the US built almost 40 million gross tons (along with several million tons more of naval vessels).1 Over the course of the war, the US built more than 3,600 cargo ships, over 700 tankers, and more than 1,300 naval vessels, including 8 battleships, 128 aircraft carriers, and 352 destroyers.

This enormous shipbuilding output was achieved via a combination of government management and private enterprise. The government funded the construction of the ships and shipyards, decided on many of the construction strategies, and closely monitored progress, intervening as necessary when shipyards seemed to be falling behind. But it was private companies, some of which had never built ships before, that actually built the yards and ships, and worked tirelessly to increase efficiencies, drive down construction times, and produce enough ships to win the war.

US wartime shipbuilding

US shipbuilding during WWII took place as two parallel efforts. One effort was the construction of military vessels — battleships, destroyers, submarines, etc. — under the auspices of the Navy. Military vessels were built with some of the most advanced ship technology then available, including radar, sonar, computers, and oil-fired steam turbines, but they were largely built using conventional ship construction techniques: riveted together piece by piece on a long sloped surface called a shipway, then slid into the water upon completion.

The other shipbuilding effort was the construction of transport ships — cargo ships, tankers, etc. — built under the auspices of the US Maritime Commission. These ships were often less advanced in terms of technological capabilities, but they were built using novel construction techniques, including welding and prefabrication, that allowed them to be produced at unprecedented speed. Because most ships during the war (whether measured by number of ships or by total tonnage) were built by the Maritime Commission, that’s what I’ll focus on here.2

The US Maritime Commission was formed in 1936 as a New Deal agency to help revive US shipbuilding.3 Its goal was “the creation of an adequate and well-balanced merchant fleet… readily and quickly convertible into transport and supply vessels in a time of national emergency.” The year after its formation, the commission funded the construction of the largest ocean liner ever built in the US, the SS America, and contracted with several shipbuilders to build a series of commission-designed “standard” cargo ships. This cargo ship building program, known as the “long range program," aimed to build 500 ships over a period of 10 years.

USS Whiteside, a C2 standard cargo ship designed by the Maritime Commission, via Wikipedia.

Led by shipbuilding expert Admiral Emory Land4 and his assistant Vice Admiral Howard Vickery, the commission didn’t want to just prop up the struggling US shipbuilding industry with subsidies.5 Its goal was to drive efficiencies by fostering competition and encouraging the adoption of mass-production shipbuilding techniques. For the first series of cargo ships built under the long range program, the commission drove down costs by getting a low bid from a small, nearly defunct shipyard, and then badgering other shipbuilders into accepting similar terms. And the standard cargo ship designs created by the commission made extensive use of welding, a then-novel method of ship construction that greatly reduced the amount of steel required to build a ship.

As the Maritime Commission began its long range program, war was brewing in Europe. Germany annexed the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938, and invaded Poland in 1939. When France and the UK declared war on Germany in response, German submarines began to target allied shipping.

As the situation in Europe grew more dire, and UK ship losses mounted, the building program of the Maritime Commission expanded. On top of the 50 ships being built annually by the long range program, the commission agreed to construct 60 ships for Britain in late 1940. The British ships were quickly followed by an “emergency program” of 200 more ships for the US in January 1941. Another 300 ships were added to the emergency program in April, and even more in October. By December, the commission was planning to build 5 million deadweight tons of ships in 1942, and 7 million in 1943.

After Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and the US formally entered the war, shipbuilding targets were raised even higher. The 12 million deadweight ton target of 1942 and 1943 was raised to 14 million, then to 19 million, then to more than 25 million.

Shipyards and the Six Companies

Building this many ships required the efforts of a huge number of shipyards, but most existing shipyards were completely booked building naval vessels. The Maritime Commission was thus forced to build new shipyards.

New shipyard construction began in 1940 following the commission’s agreement to build 60 ships for Britain. As existing shipyards were almost completely full, Admiral Land and his associates searched for other organizations that might be capable of building ships. They were pointed to a consortium of West Coast construction companies known as the Six Companies, whose leadership included industrialists Stephen Bechtel and Henry Kaiser.

The Six Companies had achieved success by rapidly completing some of the largest and most impressive construction projects in the US. In 1936 it completed construction on the Hoover Dam, then the tallest dam in the world, 26 months ahead of schedule. This was followed by completing the Bonneville Dam in 1938 (finished a year ahead of schedule), and the Grand Coulee Dam spillway in 1942 (finished 18 months ahead of schedule). Members of the Six Companies also built the approaches for the Golden Gate Bridge, and the piers for the Bay Bridge.

These and other successes were based around a strategy of figuring out how to move as much material as possible as fast as possible, often by adopting or inventing novel technologies and construction methods, and securing early completion bonuses. Henry Kaiser was an early adopter of heavy earthmoving equipment (he obtained exclusive rights to use the inventions of RG LeTourneau, an entrepreneur who would later supply 75% of the earthmoving equipment used by the Allies during WWII), and Bechtel may have been the first company to use tracked construction equipment like bulldozers. On the Hoover Dam project, a Kaiser engineer designed a railroad and special gravel-mining equipment to move gravel eight miles to the dam construction site, and the company used truck mounted “drilling jumbos” to simultaneously drill many holes at once far faster than could be done by hand. Both Kaiser and Bechtel were also early adopters of arc welding, and used it in lieu of riveting to rapidly complete large pipeline projects.

Kaiser and Bechtel also achieved speed by fostering competition within their operations. On the Grand Coulee Dam, Kaiser’s lieutenants split the work in two, and two teams competed to see who could complete their half of the spillway first. On the Bay Bridge, Kaiser and Bechtel-led teams competed to see who could drive the deeper pier. This mastery of rapidly moving large volumes of material, achieved by way of novel production methods and a competitive spirit, would later become critical during the wartime shipbuilding effort.

Kaiser and Bechtel were always looking for new opportunities, and had learned from experience that government work could be highly lucrative, especially if the projects could be completed ahead of schedule. As the Maritime Commission expanded its building program and the clouds of war darkened over Europe, shipbuilding seemed to offer a prime opportunity. Kaiser and Bechtel knew that the commission was unlikely to award any work to a completely inexperienced company, so they decided to partner with an existing shipbuilder, Todd Shipyards, to form the Seattle-based Seattle-Tacoma Shipbuilding Corporation (“Sea-Tac”). In 1939 Sea-Tac won a Maritime Commission contract to build five ships as something of a trial order to assess their capabilities. The Six Companies proceeded to build a new shipyard in Seattle to fulfill the order, and then closely observed the Todd-managed operations to learn as much about shipbuilding as possible.

In 1940, thanks in part to wheedling by Bechtel, the initial Maritime Commission order was followed by a much larger order: given the lack of space at existing shipyards, Todd and the Six Companies would build the 60 ships the commission agreed to build for Britain. 30 ships would be built at a new Todd-owned yard in Portland, Maine, and 30 at a not-yet constructed shipyard in Richmond, California. Henry Kaiser began construction of the Richmond shipyard in late December 1940 (according to some reports, work started just 10 hours after signing the contract), and 78 days later it was laying down its first keel.

In addition to the sites in Maine and Richmond, the Maritime Commission funded the construction of seven other new shipyards, spread across the East, West, and Gulf coasts. Five of these (Los Angeles, Richmond, Houston, Oregon, and Maine) would be operated by members of the Todd-Six Companies shipbuilding group.

As the shipbuilding program expanded throughout the war, the emergency yards were enlarged and extended. Henry Kaiser (who parted ways with Todd in 1942) would ultimately operate seven shipyards (three in Oregon and four in Richmond), and Bechtel and associates would operate two (Calship at Los Angeles and Marinship near San Francisco.) Kaiser-operated yards would ultimately produce nearly 1,500 ships, 27% of all the tonnage built by the Maritime Commission during the war.

Calship circa 1942.

The Liberty Ship

When the British visited the US in the summer of 1940 to secure a shipbuilding contract, the main criteria was that the ships be built quickly. At the time the UK was losing dozens of ships a month to German submarines, and without a merchant fleet, mounting an effective resistance to Germany would be impossible. Winston Churchill later stated that “the only thing that ever really frightened me during the war was the U-boat peril.”

It quickly became clear that building fast, modern ships was out of the question. Fast ships required steam turbine engines, but turbines were in short supply and entirely allocated to naval vessels. Instead of a new, modern design, the British ships would be based on the design for a British tramp steamer, probably the Empire Wind, which used an outdated but easily obtainable triple expansion reciprocating steam engine. The design was modified by naval architecture firm Gibbs and Cox for American shipyards6 (which included changing riveting to welding), creating what became known as Ocean-class ships. The first Ocean-class ship, the Ocean Vanguard, began construction in April 1941 in Kaiser’s Richmond shipyard, and launched in October of that year.

As the Maritime Commission expanded its shipbuilding program, it faced similar constraints as the British. The Commission had hoped to build more of its standard C1, C2 and C3 cargo ships, but these ships used turbine engines which weren’t available. Land was reluctant to build significant numbers of slow, outdated ships, but had no real choice, and ultimately the commission decided to use the Ocean-class as the basis for its emergency program, with several modifications (such as rearranging the location of the deckhouse and changing the type of boiler). The resulting ship was designated the EC2 (an “emergency” version of its C2 class ship), but it soon became known as the Liberty Ship. The first Liberty Ship, the SS Patrick Henry, was completed by the Bethlehem Fairfield Shipyard in Baltimore on December 30th, 1941, a few weeks after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.

A Liberty Ship, the SS John W. Brown, via Wikipedia.

The Liberty Ship is the most famous (and most widely produced) cargo ship built during the war, but it wasn’t the only one. Once turbine engines were available, the Liberty Ship was replaced with the similar but faster turbine-powered Victory Ship, of which 414 were built. To transport large amounts of fuel and oil, the Maritime Commission also built hundreds of T2 and T3 tankers. And in addition to cargo ships, the Maritime Commission also built hundreds of vessels for the navy, including frigates, LSTs, and escort aircraft carriers.

Building ships quickly

When the US entered WWII, most ships were built using methods not much different from those used on the first iron ships built in the late 19th century. Ships were riveted together, piece by piece, on a berth until they were complete enough to be floated, after which the rest of the equipment (including the engines and boilers) would be installed. The entire process took months. The SS Dorrington Court, a ship similar in design to the Liberty Ship but built with conventional methods in Britain, took eight months to complete.

These shipbuilding methods were used in part because shipbuilders were somewhat conservative, and in part because building ships in small numbers, each one unique, couldn’t justify large upfront costs required to create a mass production-style process. But with hundreds of identical ships now being built, and the Maritime Commission encouraging builders to adopt novel, more efficient methods to reduce construction times, the stage was set for a new shipbuilding methodology to emerge.

The process used for building Liberties and other Maritime Commission ships ultimately resembled an assembly line. Large volumes of steel plates and shapes would arrive at a shipyard, where they would be stored until needed. From storage steel would be moved to fabrication, where the plates were cut, bent, and formed into the proper shape. Some of this work was done by hand, but much of it was done by machine tools like presses, drills, and large programmable flame cutters. Different areas of the fabrication shop were outfitted with the tools and equipment to produce different kinds of components — deck plates in one bay, keel plates in another, hatches and brackets in a third — and a fabrication shops would produce more than 1,000 tons of steel components per day.

Programmable flame cutter at Oregonship.

In addition to components fabricated in the yard itself, a yard would also store and manage the thousands of other components needed to produce a ship — engines, pipes, valves, screws, bolts, wiring — produced by manufacturers around the country.7

Prefabricated deck section being lifted at Calship.

From the fabrication shop, components would move to assembly, where they would be welded together into large, prefabricated “blocks” that could weigh 50 tons or more. These blocks would then be moved to the shipways, and attached together to form the structure of the ship. Once the structure was complete, the ship would be slid into the water, and another ship would begin construction on the shipway. The launched ship would then spend several weeks being “outfitted," which included things like completing interior carpentry, installing wiring, insulating pipes, installing cargo booms, and so on.

Large prefab block being lifted into place at Oregonship.

This process had several advantages compared to the previous, piece-by-piece methods of ship construction. Because so much of the work was done off the shipway on prefabricated blocks, it effectively allowed more workers to work on the ship at once. Yards that heavily used preassembly could have more than 2,400 workers building the ship simultaneously, while yards that only made limited use of it were limited to 700. Preassembly also moved work that had been done in the cramped interior of the ship into specialized assembly areas, which made it far easier to perform. Welding, for instance, was much easier to do downhand (with the workpiece below the welder) than vertically or overhead, and preassembly allowed for much more downhand welding. Welders working in preassembly shops (doing mostly downhand welding) produced on average twice as much welding per day as one working in the shipways. Preassembly also allowed more extensive use of jigs, fixtures, and other labor-saving devices, and generally made it easier to arrange and schedule the work so it could be done in whichever way was most efficient.

Prefabricated bulkhead being lifted into place on a T-2 tanker at Henry Kaiser’s Oregon shipyard.

Welding was the key technology that made this method of shipbuilding possible: each Liberty Ship required nearly 50 miles of welding. Welding could be done much faster than riveting, and in some cases could be done automatically by machines which were even faster. And welders could be trained quickly: a complete novice could be trained to be a productive welder doing the simplest tasks in little more than a week. Because riveting required steel plates to overlap while welding didn’t, welding also saved steel, important at a time when steel was in extremely short supply.

Welding wasn’t completely novel in shipbuilding at the start of the war — the Maritime Commission’s standard cargo ships designed before the war used welded construction, and welding had also been used on Germany’s “pocket” battleships in the 1930s to reduce weight and thus get more firepower within Treaty of Versailles weight limits. But never before had welding been used in ship construction so extensively. And while existing shipbuilders were often reluctant to adopt welding, Kaiser and Bechtel had accumulated extensive experience with welded construction from building oil pipelines.

(Shipbuilders weren’t unreasonable to be concerned about widely adopting a still novel ship fabrication technology. During the war welded ships were dogged by the occasional catastrophic failure, where ships would completely crack in two. Changes were made to the welding and inspection process to try and avoid these failures, which were eventually determined to stem from poor quality steel and the fact that welds allowed cracks in steel to propagate across joints).

While prefabrication was adopted by nearly every Maritime Commission shipyard, the Kaiser shipyards in Richmond pushed it especially far. There Kaiser was able to build one giant prefab plant that served two adjoining shipyards, and use it to fabricate truly enormous blocks, including entire deckhouses. Arthur Herman describes deckhouse fabrication in Freedom’s Forge:

Plates and structural shapes went from the various suppliers direct to the warehouse, and then to the prefab center by flatcar or trailer. There three conveyor belts in each bay were set up to handle three deckhouses at a time. The belt was not a belt at all, but a three-foot-high concrete platform, on which were mounted trolley wheels at two-foot intervals—and on the wheels were the enormous mounted jigs carrying the deckhouse and pulled by a two-drum 10-horsepower hoist at the opposite end.

First the decks were laid out, made of thirty-six steel plates, and double-torched and match-marked to fit. Then the plates were set on an “upside down” jig on the conveyor belt, where they were welded together by two welding machines and a pack of Lincoln 300-amp welders.

Then came the beams, stiffeners, and other shapes that were welded in place, each cut and bent to shape in large numbers ahead of time and stored in the “angle orchard.” Then bridge cranes lifted each deckhouse and turned it right side up and onto a series of jigs, so that the bulkheads, boat decks, bridge decks, house tops—all cut, shaped, and machined ahead of time and stored in racks—as well as piping, plumbing, heating, and electrical wiring, could be installed, station by station, on the belt.

By the time the deckhouse reached the end of the conveyor belt, it was complete in every detail, including temporary stiffeners and rigging for hoisting each deckhouse into place in the shipway.

WWII wasn’t the first time that prefabrication had been extensively used in ship construction: in the 1930s US shipyards were already gradually adopting more preassembly. And using prefabrication for an emergency shipbuilding program dated back to WWI: in an attempt to build ships quickly during the war, the US government funded the construction of what was then the largest shipyard in the world at Hog Island, near Philadelphia. Hog Island leveraged prefabrication to a greater extent than even Kaiser and the Maritime Commission did. Maritime Commission shipyards fabricated components on-site out of raw steel plate, and thus (like conventional shipyards) were operations that gradually transformed raw materials into a finished ship. But Hog Island was little more than an assembly point for large, prefabricated sections built in factories around the country.

After the war the Hog Island shipyard was dismantled (today the area is part of Philadelphia International Airport), but it greatly informed the Maritime Commission's ship construction strategies. Admiral Land imagined wartime ship construction would operate “similar to the Hog Island production plan," making heavy use of prefabrication. But Hog Island was also a cautionary tale. Having a single point of assembly in a highly industrialized area caused problems of congestion when trying to deliver prefabricated components to the yard. And the Hog Island ships had not only been incredibly expensive (three times the cost of a similar British ship, on average), they had been slow to arrive. The 110 prefabricated ships built at Hog Island took on average more than 225 days to complete, and the first ships weren’t completed until after the war was over. Many of the decisions made by the Maritime Commission, such as the choice to spread ship construction across multiple coasts, were an attempt to avoid the problems of Hog Island.

Hog Island shipyard in 1919, via Naval History and Heritage Command.

The prefabricated, assembly-line style methods of Kaiser and the Maritime Commission weren’t truly mass production. While shipbuilding output increased enormously during the war, the number of ships produced by a single shipyard was still very small compared to something like the auto industry. At their peak, all Maritime Commission shipyards combined produced fewer than 2,000 ships a year, whereas a single large car factory could produce that many cars in just over a day.8 And while mass production sought to divide tasks so finely that work required almost no skill at all, the division of labor in wartime shipbuilding was never so extensive, and the process continued to require a great deal of skilled labor and flexible production arrangements. Parts weren’t truly interchangeable (in part due to large tolerances in the shipyard machine tools) and assembly required the skill and attention of skilled shipfitters. Fabrication shops flexibly shifted their operations to produce a variety of different components depending on what was needed, and workers would perform different tasks from day to day depending on what needed to be done.

But while wartime shipbuilding wasn’t true mass production, the new methods pushed shipbuilding in that direction, and made shipbuilding a game of trying to move as much material as possible as quickly as possible. This was a task well suited to men like Kaiser and Bechtel, who had made rapidly moving large volumes of material the cornerstone of their success in construction. As noted by Van Sill in his history of WWII construction:

…Contractors were used to assembling huge quantities of heavy materials, hiring and training crews of skilled and unskilled workers, coordinating operations for maximum speed, and improvising new methods when old ones were inadequate. To them, building a ship was simply a matter of building another kind of structure.

Expanding the labor force

Building thousands of ships at newly-built shipyards meant hiring huge numbers of shipyard workers, a task that was made even harder by the fact that existing workers were continuously getting drafted. In the summer of 1940, prior to the British orders and the Maritime Commission emergency program, total American shipyard employment stood at around 168,000, which rose to over 1.5 million at the peak of the war. More than 600,000 of these worked in Maritime Commission shipyards.

Hiring more than a million experienced shipyard workers was out of the question — such a labor force didn’t exist — so shipyards were forced to divide shipbuilding work into dozens of specialized tasks, each of which an inexperienced worker could be trained to do relatively quickly. This strategy was adopted from car manufacturing, which had such a fine division of labor that an unskilled worker could be trained to be productive in as little as two days. Clay Bedford, Henry Kaiser’s subordinate who managed the Richmond shipyards, described his epiphany after visiting a Ford factory:

…I asked the personnel man how long it took to train a man to take the position of one of the men on the assembly line. He said that ordinarily it takes two days, after which the new man is watched for a day or two to see that he understands his problem.

I went away from there quite amazed… If it were only possible to train the new people that we have in two days, wouldn’t that be grand. So we attempted to set up a specialization program on the same basis, so that when making any certain section like a fore peak or welding in the pipes or doing any one of the single simple chores that are to be done on the ship, then that job was to be done by the same crew every day.

Maritime Commission shipyards typically began their operations with a nucleus of experienced shipbuilders, and then grew their operations around them. Early on, yards would try to hire folks with experience somewhat related to shipbuilding, such as plumbers or carpenters, but they were soon hiring thousands of unskilled workers, including thousands of women. Some workers were trained to do tasks like welding on-site at shipyard educational programs (known as “vestibule schools”), but hundreds of thousands were also trained at public schools in government-sponsored training programs. Training programs emphasized getting a worker competent enough that they could be put on the job, then following up with more training as needed. The Maritime Commission didn’t organize any training programs directly, but it pressured the shipyard to have programs with minimal acceptable standards by threatening to withhold pay from workers if they weren’t trained sufficiently well to match their job title.

Rapid training was necessary because shipyards had enormous amounts of turnover. In some cases shipyards were losing 10% or more of their workers every month, a higher rate of departure than any other major wartime industry. Some of this turnover was from workers moving to other shipyards to get better pay or more desirable hours, but often it was because of the miserable working conditions of the yards. Shipyards were incredibly dangerous. Workers were so likely to have their vision damaged from the flash of the weld that it became known as “shipyard eye," and they also risked respiratory injuries from inhaling welding fumes. Workers could fall from great heights or be crushed by shifting steel in the storage yards. Over 700 workers died in US shipyards in 1943.

Beyond the dangers, workers often had trouble coping with the “strenuous, dirty labor of a noisy shipyard.” One woman who wrote about her experiences as a wartime welder described the unbelievable noise of the shipyard:

There is nothing in the training to prepare you for the excruciating noise you get down in the ship. Any who were not heart and soul determined to stick it out would fade out right away. Any whose nerves were too sensitive couldn’t take it, and I really mean couldn’t. There are times when those chippers get going and two shipfitters on opposite sides of a metal wall swing tremendous sledge-hammers simultaneously and you wonder if your ears can stand it. Sometimes the din will seem to swell and engulf you like a treacherous wave in surf-bathing and you feel as if you were going under. Once I thought to myself, “If this keeps on, I wonder—” It makes you want to scream wildly. And then it struck me funny to realize a scream couldn’t even be heard! So I screamed, loud and lustily, and couldn’t even hear myself.

Life was also difficult for shipyard workers outside the yards. During the war, hundreds of thousands of workers poured into what were previously small coastal towns. Panama City, Florida grew from 20,000 to 60,000 in three years. Richmond, California grew from 23,000 to 123,000. Mobile, Alabama grew from 115,000 to 201,000. It was difficult for cities to keep up with such rapid growth, and there were acute shortages of housing, government services, and basic amenities. In Pascagoula, a town in Mississippi which grew from 4,000 to 30,000, many workers were crowded into tiny “efficiency” apartments built in areas without proper sewage or paved roads. Garbage covered the streets, and the town became “overrun” with rats. In Mobile, workers were forced to live in cars, tents, trailers, park benches, or share rooms with up to six other workers. In his history of Maritime Commission shipbuilding, Frederic Lane notes:

The city was so short of water that housewives kept their taps open all day to capture the trickle. Sewers were desperately needed. There was only one doctor for every 3,000 persons, and there was a shortage of hospital beds.

As part of its efforts to meet aggressive shipbuilding targets and overcome the enormous amount of turnover, the Maritime Commission worked to improve community conditions around the shipyards. Anticipating a rubber shortage, the commission bought buses to provide transportation services to the yards from the surrounding community (though most workers continued to use their own cars). It also built schools, police stations, and thousands of apartment units, and worked with government housing agencies to build thousands more. But per Frederic Lane, throughout the war poor conditions continued to result in “quits, absenteeism, and even in strikes.”

Riding the learning curve

The repetitive nature of the Maritime Commission’s shipbuilding program made it ripe for learning curve improvements (reductions in cost or increases in efficiency that occur as production volume increases). Shipyards found numerous ways to build ships more efficiently, many of which involved improving and expanding the preassembly process. Processes were modified to install an increasingly large fraction of parts and components on the prefabricated blocks, reducing how much outfitting work needed to be done after the ship launched and cutting outfitting times by 80% or more in some yards. Larger cranes were installed, which allowed for larger preassembly blocks, and shipyards acquired more storage space to make room for them. Yards installed ramps to give trucks access to ships under construction, freeing up valuable gantry crane capacity and allowing blocks to be more rapidly installed.

In addition to improving preassembly, the entire ship construction process was streamlined. Fabrication processes were redesigned to take greater advantage of automatic welding machines (which could weld more than twice as fast as a human welder). Ship designs were changed to reduce the number of different parts and components required. As yards expanded over the course of the war, they adopted improved layouts that allowed material to more efficiently flow through them, and to allow different areas of the yard to specialize on different types of components.

Engine room mockup used to accurately pre-assemble piping at Oregonship. Creating this mockup reduced welding times by 85%.

Many of the improvements adopted by shipyards were suggested by the workers themselves. Workers invented new, better tools, improved the ones they had, and built better yard infrastructure. In many cases, such as that of the “jack-backer” invented by a Richmond shipyard worker, the savings were substantial:

Garrie Thompson, an assembly worker at Richmond Yard 2, invented a tool, the “jack-backer,” which allowed a single shipfitter to draw two plates together for welding. When used to fair two thick deck plates for machine welding, the device, akin to a cast-iron femur with a giant bolt down its axis, eliminated the 1,200 disposable “clips” that customarily held deck plates for welding, saving thousands of pounds of steel and cutting 5,000 man hours per ship.

Another Richmond worker came up with a method to more quickly install Liberty Ship engines:

…A Richmond worker devised a “Little Prefab” plant in which crews prefabricated and assembled the precision-cut plates which formed the foundation to Liberty ship steam engines, trimming the time needed for final installation by almost 90%.

Altogether, the Maritime Commission received more than 3,000 improvement suggestions during the war, which collectively saved $45 million (~$800 million in 2025 dollars) and 31 million labor hours.

Thanks to these improvements, the time and effort required to build a ship steadily fell. At the beginning of 1942 it took on average nearly 250 days and 1.1 million labor hours to build a Liberty Ship. By the end of 1943 that had fallen to less than 50 days, and around 0.5 million labor hours. In the most productive Kaiser shipyards, it approached 0.3 million labor hours. Other types of ships saw similar improvements.

(Learning curves are susceptible to “resets," a jump in hours or cost when there’s a substantial change to the production process. The WWII shipyards were no exception. A dip in efficiency occurred when yards switched from building Liberty Ships to Victory Ships, and in general the broad swath of different ships produced by Maritime Commission yards meant that while Liberty Ship production improved significantly, overall wartime efficiency improvement was much less).

Shipbuilding process improvements originated in the shipyards, but the nationwide improvement in shipbuilding efficiency wouldn’t have been possible without the careful shepherding of the Maritime Commission. The commission scheduled which ships would be built where, tracked construction progress, and figured out where materials would be needed when. To prevent shortages from slowing down production, the commission worked to expedite orders and secure materials and components that were in short supply, like piping and steel. And it closely monitored individual shipyards, inspecting their work and helping them devise new production methods.

The commission also worked to ensure improvements adopted at one yard would be spread to other yards. The commission adopted a strategy of setting ambitious delivery targets, letting individual shipyards determine how best to achieve them, and then spreading the most successful ideas to other shipyards. The commission worked to help novice shipbuilders learn the basics from more experienced yards, and sponsored trips to let shipbuilders visit each other's yards. Improvement suggestions were pooled by the Maritime Commission and widely distributed. In his doctoral thesis on US wartime shipbuilding, Chris Tassava notes that over the course of the war, the commission “became extraordinarily adept at channeling the cascade of information which flowed from its own divisions, other mobilization agencies, the bevy of big and small contractors, and non-governmental industry bodies”:

In particular, the commission carefully exposed its contractors to each other by prying open the black boxes of company structure, decision-making, and process technology. In this role, the Maritime Commission functioned much like a trade association, cartel, or patent pool, all institutional mechanisms designed to ease the processes of getting and using information.

The commission acted like a trade association in its role as a distributor of information, but it was also the customer (and owner) of these shipyards, and it was a demanding one. The commission’s shipbuilding contracts rewarded yards for completing work ahead of schedule, and penalized them for falling behind. In extreme cases, the commission would replace a shipyard’s management if the existing team wasn’t meeting expectations. A Rhode Island shipyard operated by Rheem Manufacturing, for instance, was handed over to Henry Kaiser in 1943 when Rheem struggled to manage it.

The commission also deliberately pitted different shipyards against each other in competition. Admiral Vickery became infamous for constantly needling shipyards to match other’s efforts. Early in 1942, Vickery convinced Henry Kaiser to accept a new, accelerated contract for Liberty Ships, in part because Kaiser’s yards were among the fastest, and in part to goad the older shipbuilders into improving their efforts. When Kaiser’s Oregon yard set a new record for rapid construction, Vickery called up the head of another yard operated by a pre-war shipbuilder and complained: “You haven’t matched that, and you’re supposed to be a shipbuilder!” At one point when a new shipyard came online, Vickery told an existing shipyard of similar size“I consider you in competition," and he would continually update each yard on where they stood in the race. Vickery had a habit of visiting yards, touring them, then confronting the owner with the numerous mistakes and inefficiencies he observed, and ways that other yards were performing much better. Frederic Lane notes that, “By such methods of getting under their skins, he drew out of various managements the extra efforts on which the success of the whole program depended.”

This constant needling and goading was supplemented by efficiency ratings given to each yard, based on how rapidly contracts were completed, how many ships were built per each shipway, and how many hours were used per ship. Efficiency ratings were updated monthly, and yards competed to have the best rankings (which were regularly topped by Henry Kaiser’s yards). Shipyards that received high ratings on various efficiency metrics received the Maritime Commission’s “M” award (derived from the similar “E” award given by the Navy to their best contractors), and earned the right to fly an “M” pennant in the yard and have workers wear “Labor Merit Award” pins.

First “M” award, given to Henry Kaiser’s Oregonship.

The Maritime Commission wasn’t the only player stoking competition to try and squeeze out more shipbuilding effort. Henry Kaiser’s two chief lieutenants, son Edgar Kaiser (who managed the Oregon yards) and Clay Bedford (who managed the Richmond yards) competed fiercely to see who could complete a ship more quickly. In August of 1942, Oregon broke records by launching a Liberty Ship in just 23 days. Bedford’s Richmond yards responded by launching one in just 21 days, which drove Oregon to complete one in just 13 days. Not to be outdone, the Richmond yards shot back by completing a Liberty Ship in just 7 days. The Maritime Commission eventually put an end to these “stunt ship” demonstrations as not being productive (it took a lot of special attention and coordination to achieve these one-off build times), but not to the spirit of competition which infused the entire shipbuilding program.

Via Lane 2001.

How good was US wartime shipbuilding?

The result of the Maritime Commission’s shipbuilding program was a flood of ships like nothing the world had ever seen. At the peak of the war, the US was delivering nearly 800,000 tons of ship per month, about 70 times as high as its average rate of merchant shipbuilding during the 1930s. For a brief moment during the war, the US was responsible for nearly 90% of worldwide shipbuilding.

Via Maritime Economics, third edition.

This huge wave of ships allowed the US to overwhelm Germany’s submarines, literally building ships faster than they could be sunk.

Via Lane 2001

While this is an impressive record of output, we should keep it in context. Liberty Ship production was exceptionally fast, but not necessarily exceptionally efficient. It achieved low time per ship, but not necessarily low resources per ship. Indeed, in many ways efficiency was deliberately sacrificed for speed: yards ran three shifts when two would have required fewer labor-hours per ton of ship, and the Maritime Commission spread its work around the country to build ships as quickly as possible, rather than producing them all in the most efficient yards.

And while measures like labor hours per ship showed impressive declines, a major reason they could fall so steeply was because the early ships were built so inefficiently. The 1.1 million hours it took to build the first Liberty Ships was far more than it took to build a similar ship in British yards. At the height of the war, even the best Maritime Commission shipyards were only matching average British shipyard productivity. Via “Britain’s War Machine”:

In 1942 British yards needed an average of 336,000 person-hours to build a Liberty-type ship, while US-built Liberties at first needed 1.1 million person-hours, falling later to a minimum of 486,000. Only the most successful US yards ‘approached and occasionally overtook the British average after producing a hundred or more similar ships.’

And the Liberty Ship was the pinnacle of US wartime shipbuilding productivity. Other ships, built in fewer numbers and thus with fewer benefits from repetitive construction, were built less efficiently. The successor to the Liberty Ship, the Victory Ship, took on average 15% more labor hours per ton to complete, in part because yards saw significant productivity declines when they switched to building the new type. And on more complicated ships, such as naval vessels, the Maritime Commission shipbuilding machine often struggled. Kaiser’s shipyards successfully built 50 small escort aircraft carriers, but had great difficulties in building more complicated frigates. Because efficiency gains in types of ships other than Liberty were much smaller, overall Maritime Commission program productivity increased only slightly over the course of the war.

Via Lane 2001.

And while construction companies like Kaiser’s were well-suited for the task of rapidly deploying large amounts of material, even by this metric commission shipyard’s performance left something to be desired. Shipyards accumulated huge inventories of steel, equivalent to months of supply, as material wound its way from storage, through fabrication, and on to the ship itself. While these inventories were lower than in conventional shipbuilding, and improved over time, ships could have been delivered even faster and earlier had this inventory been better managed. (Modern Lean production methods place great emphasis on minimizing the amount of inventories and work in process, and some factories will operate with just hours of inventory.)

Ultimately, US wartime shipbuilding ultimately shows how hard it is to overcome the problem of unproductive shipbuilding. The Maritime Commission did whatever it took to build the ships it needed. It poured enormous amounts of money into new, better designed shipyards. It funded both conventional shipbuilders and motivated outsides, and took the best methods from whoever could produce results. It broke with the past and adopted novel, often risky construction methods. It took advantage of the benefits from repetitive construction and standardization, and encouraged deliberate improvement.

But all this was only sufficient to let the US briefly match the most productive international shipbuilders in terms of man hours (and likely not match in terms of costs, given high US wages). And this matching was only achieved when the stars perfectly aligned and long series production of very simple ships was possible. Outside of those conditions, the US remained an internationally uncompetitive shipbuilder. The end of the war didn’t create a golden age of US shipbuilding as wartime shipbuilding methods were adopted for the commercial market. Instead the yards were closed down and sold off for pennies on the dollar, and the US quickly returned to producing a small fraction of commercial oceangoing ships.

WWII shows what an urgent, emergency shipbuilding program is capable of accomplishing, but it also shows the limits of such a program.

1

Unfortunately, ship units are incredibly confusing. Capacity is measured in tons, but “tons” can mean deadweight tons, displacement tons, or gross tons. Deadweight tons is the weight of the load that the ship can carry. Displacement tons is the weight of the ship itself. And gross tons isn’t a measure of weight at all, but is a measure of volume (roughly 100 cubic feet of space).

2

These weren’t completely separate, distinct efforts. Some naval vessels, such as the baby flattop escort aircraft carriers, were built by the Maritime Commission, and many naval vessels made limited use of welding. But it’s useful as a broad characterization

3

The Maritime Commission was created by the same bill that created the Construction Differential Subsidies, which compensated buyers of US ships up to 50% of the cost of the ship.

4

A case of reverse nominative determinism.

5

The commission wasn’t initially led by Land and Vickery. The first chairman was Joseph Kennedy, father of John and Robert Kennedy. (lane 12). Land assumed chairmanship in 1937.

6

British ships were built by comparatively higher-skilled workers, and much of the necessary information to build the ship was left off the drawings, relying on the British workers to fill in the gaps. When transferring the design to American yards, these omissions all needed to be spelled out.

7

In addition to funding the construction of new shipyards, the Maritime Commission also funded the construction of many new factories for these components.

8

In the 1930s the Ford Rouge plant could produce a car every 49 seconds, or 1,763 cars every 24 hours if it operated continuously, which it appears to have done at least sometimes.

My excellent Conversation with Jack Clark

This was great fun and I learned a lot, here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary:

Jack and Tyler explore which parts of the economy AGI will affect last, where AI will encounter the strongest legal obstacles, the prospect of AI teddy bears, what AI means for the economics of journalism, how competitive the LLM sector will become, why he’s relatively bearish on AI-fueled economic growth, how AI will change American cities, what we’ll do with abundant compute, how the law should handle autonomous AI agents, whether we’re entering the age of manager nerds, AI consciousness, when we’ll be able to speak directly to dolphins, AI and national sovereignty,  how the UK and Singapore might position themselves as AI hubs, what Clark hopes to learn next, and much more.

An excerpt:

COWEN: Say 10 years out, what’s your best estimate of the economic growth rate in the United States?

CLARK: The economic growth rate now is on the order of 1 percent to 2 percent.

COWEN: There’s a chance at the moment, we’re entering a recession, but at average, 2.2 percent, so let’s say it’s 2.2.

CLARK: I think my bear case on all of this is 3 percent, and my bull case is something like 5 percent. I think that you probably hear higher numbers from lots of other people.

COWEN: 20 and 30, I hear all the time. To me, it’s absurd.

CLARK: The reason that my numbers are more conservative is, I think that we will enter into a world where there will be an incredibly fast-moving, high-growth part of the economy, but it is a relatively small part of the economy. It may be growing its share over time, but it’s growing from a small base. Then there are large parts of the economy, like healthcare or other things, which are naturally slow-moving, and may be slow in adoption of this.

I think that the things that would make me wrong are if AI systems could meaningfully unlock productive capacity in the physical world at a really surprisingly high compounding growth rate, automating and building factories and things like this.

Even then, I’m skeptical because every time the AI community has tried to cross the chasm from the digital world to the real world, they’ve run into 10,000 problems that they thought were paper cuts but, in sum, add up to you losing all the blood in your body. I think we’ve seen this with self-driving cars, where very, very promising growth rate, and then an incredibly grinding slow pace at getting it to scale.

I just read a paper two days ago about trying to train human-like hands on industrial robots. Using reinforcement learning doesn’t work. The best they had was a 60 percent success rate. If I have my baby, and I give her a robot butler that has a 60 percent accuracy rate at holding things, including the baby, I’m not buying the butler. Or my wife is incredibly unhappy that I bought it and makes me send it back.

As a community, we tend to underestimate that. I may be proved to be an unrealistic pessimist here. I think that’s what many of my colleagues would say, but I think we overestimate the ease with which we get into a physical world.

COWEN: As I said in print, my best estimate is, we get half a percentage point of growth a year. Five percent would be my upper bound. What’s your scenario where there’s no growth improvement? If it’s not yours, say there’s a smart person somewhere in Anthropic — you don’t agree with them, but what would they say?

Interesting throughout, definitely recommended.

The post My excellent Conversation with Jack Clark appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Globe Safety

Frankly, given their extreme gravitational fields and general instability, even 12-inch globes should probably be banned.

Breaking: Griffin Concedes To Riggs In NC Supreme Court Race

There it is.

Six months after Election Day, Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin has conceded the North Carolina Supreme Court race to Democratic incumbent Allison Riggs.

Griffin’s concession comes two days after a federal judge rejected his bid to throw out thousands of ballots and ordered the State Election Board to certify Riggs as the winner. Rather than appeal that decision, Griffin conceded.

The race was reminiscent of the never-ending 2008 Senate race between Norm Coleman and Al Franken in Minnesota, except Griffin’s claims were more radical. At one point, he had sought to exclude more than 60,000 ballots that had already been cast and counted.

Outgoing UMich Prez Santa Ono Pulls His Name from Academic Freedom Letter

Over the weekend, University of Michigan President Santa Ono announced that he was leaving his post to take up the leadership of the University of Florida. It was an interesting choice. It’s been reported that Ono had been warier of resisting or challenging the dictates of the Trump administration than the majority of the University’s Board of Regents, the members of which are elected in statewide elections. The majority of appointees to the University of Florida’s board are appointed by the state’s governor, Ron DeSantis.

So on quite a few levels it’s a very different operation and a pretty different job. Florida has essentially given professional anti-woke hard boy Chris Rufo the run of the state university system. It’s not unfair to say that if you’re the President of the University of Florida you work for Ron DeSantis. But they pay well. The Times reported that Ono is slated to make up to $3 million a year in compensation, more than any other public university president in the country. That’s more than twice what he made at Michigan.

Ono had been one of the signatories of the public letter in defense of academic freedom organized by American Association of Colleges and Universities and signed by the presidents and leaders of more than 150 colleges and universities (original version of signatory list here). Along with Harvard’s decision to sue the Trump administration, the AACU letter was seen as a key sign of mounting resistance to Trump administration attacks by the leaders of American higher education. But I’m told that today Ono contacted the AACU and asked that his name be removed from the list of signatories. And, indeed, the public version of the letter hosted on the AACU website no longer lists his name.

New boss, new rules.

Let’s Remember Why There’s a System of Federal Research Grants to Universities

This is largely preaching to the choir, but it’s absent enough from the news coverage that is worth stating clearly. Most right-thinking people are aghast at Trump’s onslaught on higher education. The range of reasons is endlessly discussed and doesn’t need to be enumerated here. But through those discussions is the subtext that higher education is dependent on federal subsidies. There is some truth to this when it comes to Pell grants and backstopping student loans. But with grants to fund scientific research, it turns the reality on its head. It’s the federal government which is the initiator here, both historically and also in terms of the ongoing dynamic of grant-making.

It’s the federal government, significantly at the dawn of the country’s great power status, that decided that it wanted to fund a range of different kinds of basic scientific research. Some of it was industrial and had economic development goals, some was cutting edge technology often focused on maintaining military superiority. Biomedical research had a mix of both aims and also focused on the general ideas of scientific and national progress so prevalent in the mid-late 20th century. Some of it was focused on what we’d now call soft power. The great power, certainly the great power center of the “free world,” had to be the place with the top scientists and knowledge.

Often the products of government-funded research paid off in unpredictable ways. The building blocks of the Internet emerged from the Pentagon’s DARPA program. But the trajectory in every case started with the federal government, which wanted certain kinds of scientific research done. A core strategic decision was made early on to outsource this work to independent, though often state-run universities. There was an obvious alternative, which was to build a big federal research institution that did everything in-house as it, were. Why that did not happen is a complicated story. There’s some of this at the National Institutes of Health, of course. But most of the funding is channeled through the domain knowledge banked within NIH to underwrite research at universities and academic medical centers.

Needless to say, as things have evolved, the universities aren’t complaining. The Harvards and UC Berkeleys and Wisconsins and Princetons have to a great extent remade themselves around this almost eighty year old federal partnership. They would not have become the world-class institutions of higher learning they became without being the hosts to the research the federal government paid for. There is also big competition to land researchers who can bring in grants. The universities profit greatly, though not simply in narrowly economic terms. The more grants, the more attractive a place to do research, the higher levels of academic talent who can be brought to the university. The more top-tier people, the more grants. It builds on itself. But that doesn’t change the fact that the process began with the needs and decisions of the federal government.

To listen to a lot of news reporting, and by no means only Trump-friendly coverage, you might think that the big research universities got here like so many academic Amtraks. Down on their luck industries that were falling apart and needed federal support to survive.

This is of course a thumbnail history. The role of American universities was transformed by the post-war boom not simply because of the national government’s focus on funding basic research but because the ambitions and the ideological transformation of the country changed the basic assumptions of who should benefit from and attend colleges and universities. It’s also true that having remade themselves around federal research, grants universities are ill-prepared to have those hundreds of millions withdrawn overnight. That’s obvious. But this basic trajectory, who started what, who asked for what is the necessary context for any discussion of what’s happening today.

Why Do They Have It In For Biomedical Research?

Here is a brief follow-up on the question TPM Reader MA addresses in an earlier post: why does the Trump administration have it in for biomedical/disease research? It’s a really good question and one I have not seen an adequate explanation for. But having been reporting on this for a few months now I think I do get the outlines of it.

First, let me address a related point. There is a fascinating dynamic at play at the heart of this. The fascination is depleted somewhat by the stakes. There is immense potential political power in the defense and expansion of biomedical research. But the stakeholders simply don’t have any experience using it: the researchers, academics, university administrators, government scientists, etc. That’s not a criticism. We don’t train these people to operate in that sphere. They exist in a highly esoteric space. As I was just explaining to a physicist today, the question of why a school bus driver and a nurse should care much about theoretical physics is a pretty good one. Why they should care about cutting-edge research into cures for cancer or Alzheimer’s is very straightforward. This entire meta-struggle is best seen as a contest over whether the biomedical research community can get on to the political playing field and deploy that potential power before the people in the administration, who actually hold a fairly weak hand, can snuff it out entirely.

Now to this question, why do they have it in for biomedical research?

The best explanation is a sort of perfect storm. Trump wants to dominate and control the universities and eliminate them as what people in his world see as a seedbed for liberal ideologies. Russ Vought has a long-pre-existing and similar aim within the federal government. At a basic level, at universities, scientific research is where the money is. The humanities don’t have big research and grant budgets. If you want to bring the universities to heel and diminish their power that’s just where you go.

This part is fairly straightforward, pretty easy to understand, and it’s one of the most common explanations. A number of separate factors are also in the mix that, together, have added immense energy, focus and power to this push.

First, you have Elon Musk, the belief that AI can and will essentially replace research scientists and the related belief that AI-backed tech has essentially achieved a kind of escape velocity from government-supported science. So AI will soon replace research scientists. I, Elon (or tech generally) own the AI. So there’s no big harm shutting down this research apparatus. And since I own the AI, not only will we cure all the diseases but I’ll own all the cures! What’s not to like? This may seem like hyperbole but it is at most only a hyped up version of what these people think. This informs A LOT of the thinking behind the cuts. The aim of knocking the eggheads off their perch is easy to understand. If there’s also no downside (in terms of lost cures, lost leads in the sciences) why not?

Related to this is something I’ve picked up in discussions with a friend who is a very close and shrewd observer of the tech world. That’s the Silicon Valley class war between the folks with tens or hundreds of millions or more and the working stiffs on salaries of $400,000 or $500,000 a year. That tech “working class” salary point may sound absurd. But it really captures a big part of this. The dynamic is intensified by the ossification of tech. It used to be that the half-a-million-a-year folks might be one great start-up move away from hitting super wealth themselves. That’s not happening anymore. Meanwhile, the Elons and sub-Elons have super wealth and it’s annoying to have to listen to the gripes, the borderline-woke thinking and everything else, from the guys who fuel your wealth. A Thorstein Veblen type could explain it better than I can, but, for present purposes, we’ll settle for this thumbnail version.

Needless to say, government scientists don’t make half a million a year and neither do all but maybe a tiny elite of science grant superstars. But when the tech oligarchs in Elon’s world see these folks with their PhDs and their peer reviews and their long-ass study timelines, they see the uppity salaried techs who run their companies. And they act accordingly.

Second, you’ve got COVID. There’s always been a deep strand of anti-intellectualism on the right and hostility toward the academic world. COVID, COVID denialism and vaccine denialism have made public health and biomedical researchers a big, big bogeyman across huge swathes of the right. This one doesn’t require much explanation, I imagine. We’ve all lived through this. All biomedical researchers are hugely suspect right off the bat. Lots of vaccine “skeptics” have landed major appointments at HHS, not least among them the guy who runs the whole place.

There are a few other lines of push here against biomedical research. But I think these three things capture it. You’ve got multiple, interrelated but still very distinct factors all pushing the same direction. And that’s what gets us here.

Sic Transit, DeTransitioning Edition

I am reading an April 21, 2025 letter from Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs Dr. Stephen Ferrara which provides guidance for discontinuing treatment of minors with gender dysphoria at military medical treatment facilities. After noting the Pentagon policy banning the initiation or continuation of treatment with puberty blockers or cross-sex hormone therapy, the letter allows clinicians to offer a tapering-off regime which can last between 6 and 12 weeks, during which military doctors can write prescriptions. Anything longer than 12 weeks must get express approval from Ferrara’s office. The letter also notes administrative changes which will require patients to fill tapering prescriptions “at private sector pharmacies at their own expense.”

Are We Living in a Time of Cultural Collapse?

Many articles have been written about me over the years. But I’ve never been hit with an opening sentence like the one published on Monday by The Atlantic.

Last year, I visited the music historian Ted Gioia to talk about the death of civilization.

Whoa! That makes me feel like a Bond villain.

I need some henchmen—any volunteers?

Henchmen from the Batman TV series

What an unexpected turnabout! For many years, I was known as an expert on music, especially jazz and blues.

But now I’ve taken on a new guise. I’m the guy you consult about the total collapse of everything.

I don’t sing the blues. I don’t write about the blues. I now deliver the blues.


If you want to support my work, the best way is by taking out a premium subscription (for just $6 per month).

Subscribe now


I originally declined the interview request from The Atlantic. But their staff writer Spencer Kornhaber pushed back, insisting that I was an essential source for his article.

The subject was, he explained, a “pervasive suspicion that we're in an era of cultural decline, especially in arts and entertainment.”

He said that I needed to be part of the story—because everybody saw me as the decline-of-culture guy.

This caught me surprise. But I thought it over. Maybe this is why I don’t get invited to many parties anymore.

Dammit, Ted, we’re trying to have some fun here—and you keep droning on about the collapse of the Roman empire.

I eventually agreed to a phone conversation with Spencer, and that went well. And this led to him getting on a plane, and visiting me at home here in Austin.

To help him in his research, I laid out more than 40 books on a countertop in my library—these were essential works, I explained, for anyone studying social or cultural decline.

[At a future date, I will provide more details about these books, and share a reading list on—to quote The Atlantic—the “death of civilization.”]

I laid out more than 40 books on cultural decline and collapse on a countertop.

But this begs the question: Is our culture really collapsing?

I spoke with Spencer for many hours about this subject. But only a few of my comments found their way into the finished article.

So today I’ll offer a fuller diagnosis for your benefit.


Are We Living in an Age of Cultural Collapse?

(1) People love to talk about collapse—but the bigger threat is cultural stagnation.

If you study history, you learn that total collapse is rare. But stagnation is quite common.

Stagnation is really the rule, not the exception. So it’s more likely than all the other options put together. Sometimes entire lifetimes pass by without significant cultural innovation. Go look at all those Egyptian and Chinese dynasties, and try to list the major innovations that happened in any given 25 or 50 year span.

Good luck with that.

Many of these societies took pride in their lack of change. Stagnation often comes packaged with reverence for the past. Change is avoided. Innovation is feared or punished.

Historians won’t give you much help. When I tried to learn what transpired during the twelfth dynasty of ancient Egypt—which lasted 189 years—the experts told me that it was a time of “relative stability.”

Duh!

In extreme instances, artistic styles don’t change—or change very little—over long periods.

Most of us don’t realize this, because we grew up in an era of fast-paced cultural change. But guess what? That has now stopped.

(2) In the 21st century, creative stagnation is aggressively promoted by entertainment and culture businesses.

Have you noticed that the same brand franchises keep getting recycled by Hollywood?

Of course you have. 21st century cinema is dominated by sequels, prequels, spin-offs, remakes, reboots, and various other retreads.

Hollywood hates original ideas. Or perhaps it’s more accurate to say that Hollywood fears new ideas. They want to reduce movie-making to a formula—and the easiest way to do that is to tell the same story over and over.

So they deliberately pursue stagnation. It’s their business model.

And the same thing is happening in other entertainment and culture business. The biggest new video games are also brand extensions. Spin-off TV series are everywhere. The publishing industry keeps releasing the same kind of book over and over again. The dominant formulas in music genres haven’t changed in the last 25 years.

(3) Don’t blame the artists! Many of them are still doing fresh and vital work.

Despite this stagnation, there are plenty of creative artists doing fresh work—but the system works against them.

I know this for a certainty. That’s because I listen to new music every day. And I keep finding exciting artists and songs.

But the most creative musicians are almost always hidden from view. Their music mostly shows up on homemade albums or small indie labels.

Meanwhile the major labels prefer to buy up publishing rights to old songs. Just as in Hollywood, these businesses choose stagnation. They are afraid of anything new or different—it’s too risky.

(4) But things are changing—these indie artists (finally!) have digital platforms to promote their work. The old gatekeepers can’t stop them anymore.

Not long ago, you couldn’t thrive as a musician without a record deal from a major label. Not anymore. Musicians now reach fans directly on Bandcamp or TikTok or YouTube or some other channel without gatekeepers.

This same shift has happened in almost every creative field. It’s like the Berlin Wall has fallen in the cultural sphere.

Take a look at how much Substack has shaken up the publishing and media world in just the last 24 months. Instead of stagnation, we have a healthy unleashing of creative energy and risk-taking.

These alternative platforms are our best hope for the future. And it’s not just hope, it’s reality—because these platforms are growing rapidly.

(5) The situation still isn’t ideal. The algorithms on these platforms often stifle creativity.

Algorithms also reward the familiar over the new—they are feedback mechanisms, and tend to stifle innovation. This prevents a platform like TikTok from having the positive impact it could.

But not every platform is so conformist. I have a lot of confidence in Bandcamp, Substack, YouTube, and a few other creator-boosting platforms.

YouTube is an interesting case study. It’s part of the Google/Alphabet empire of dreary mind-numbing conformity, yet somehow has managed to escape the authoritarian mindset of the rest of empire.

YouTube really does support and reward indie voices. That’s why it’s still growing at a healthy clip (unlike Apple or Disney or other purveyors of stagnation).

(6) There are other obstacles—because these alternative platforms are crowded with talent and fortune seekers.

These new platforms are filled to the brim with aspiring musicians, writers, etc. Even the most talented artists will struggle to stand out—because of all the noise.

But this is a sign of vitality.

Places like Bandcamp or Substack are exciting because so many different voices have been attracted to these freewheeling platforms. The Darwinian intensity of the fight-for-survival in these environments may not be entirely fair or dispassionate, but they will ensure that more than a few deserving individuals will get heard.

That’s why I believe that….

(7) Indie voices will eventually prevail—and reverse the stagnation.

Ross Barkan recently predicted that the future of media will be driven by Substack and YouTube. I agree with him. They are the sources of liberation and energy in an culture where old legacy players are moribund.

But other digital (and real world) businesses can also participate in this revival. They just need to avoid the authoritarian impulse, and actually support creators.

There are plenty of creative people out there. The platforms just need to stop punishing them, and instead give them a helping hand.

(8) Often things must get worse before they get better. We are living right now in that kind of situation.

I’ve learned that trends create their own demise—by pushing to extremes.

You can call this a mimetic crisis (if you’re a reader of René Girard). Or you can call it the dialectical process (if you are a Hegelian). Or you can call it the Theory of Reflexivity (if you are a student of George Soro’s The Alchemy of Finance).

Sometimes I just like to call it karma. Bad actions punish themselves, and lay the foundation for their reversal.

Summary of my 8 points on cultural decline

The name doesn’t really matter. But it’s important to understand how this actually works in the real world.

Most people fail to understand how cultural reversals occur. They borrow misleading mathematical notions—like reversion to the mean or standard deviation or some other logical concept.

But cultural reversals do not happen according to logic or math. They follow different rules—driven by emotion, psychology, and group dynamics.

The process unfolds in five steps.

  1. All trends accelerate (because of mimetic desire—essentially people imitating other people).

  2. The trend always goes on for longer than is reasonable—because it’s driven by emotion, not logic. It feeds on itself.

  3. It reaches an extreme point, where the trend is now ridiculous. (How many reboots and sequels can we digest?)

  4. At this ridiculous extreme, the public becomes disgusted with the trend. (I’m sick of all these lookalike superhero movies. Gimme a break!)

  5. This lays the foundation for a sharp reversal. The old trend is now mocked, and something new takes its place. This is the moment when cultural innovation can happen.

Let me emphasize these final two steps—because they are essential and poorly understood:

Major trends do not end because they reach a logical conclusion—or run out of steam or lose momentum. They climax in absurdity because trendsetters push too far—and embrace crazy extremes. This is what creates momentum for the reversal.

We are living through this (steps four and five) right now.

The absurdity is everywhere. You see it in music, where record labels prefer to invest in 50-year-old songs—instead of new hits. You see it in film, where a studio dumps 36 Marvel superhero movies on the market—and then acts surprised because audiences sicken of them.

These ridiculous actions tell us that a reversal is at hand. We don’t measure that by anything logical. We measure it by the absurdity.

And that’s why I’m actually optimistic.

So I’m not a Bond villain. I’m not Dr. Evil. I’m not a doom-and-gloom naysayer.

And I don’t need any henchmen. (Thank you for the applications—we will keep them on file.)

I sharply criticize the purveyors of stagnation, and will continue to do so. But I’m confident that history is on our side.

In the near future, I’ll share the a list of experts and books on cultural decline, stagnation, and rebirth. These help me predict cycles of this sort. I learned my futurism from the experts, and they deserve to get full credit.

Chinese AI Submersible

A Chinese company has developed an AI-piloted submersible that can reach speeds “similar to a destroyer or a US Navy torpedo,” dive “up to 60 metres underwater,” and “remain static for more than a month, like the stealth capabilities of a nuclear submarine.” In case you’re worried about the military applications of this, you can relax because the company says that the submersible is “designated for civilian use” and can “launch research rockets.”

“Research rockets.” Sure.

Wednesday 7 May 1662

Walked to Westminster; where I understand the news that Mr. Montagu is this last night come to the King with news, that he left the Queen and fleet in the Bay of Biscay, coming this wayward; and that he believes she is now at the Isle of Scilly. So at noon to my Lord Crew’s and there dined, and after dinner Sir Thos. Crew and I talked together, and among other instances of the simple light discourse that sometimes is in the Parliament House, he told me how in the late business of Chymny money, when all occupiers were to pay, it was questioned whether women were under that name to pay, and somebody rose and said that they were not occupiers, but occupied.

Thence to Paul’s Church Yard; where seeing my Lady’s Sandwich and Carteret, and my wife (who this day made a visit the first time to my Lady Carteret), come by coach, and going to Hide Park, I was resolved to follow them; and so went to Mrs. Turner’s: and thence found her out at the Theatre, where I saw the last act of the “Knight of the Burning Pestle,” which pleased me not at all. And so after the play done, she and The. Turner and Mrs. Lucin and I, in her coach to the Park; and there found them out, and spoke to them; and observed many fine ladies, and staid till all were gone almost. And so to Mrs. Turner’s, and there supped, and so walked home, and by and by comes my wife home, brought by my Lady Carteret to the gate, and so to bed.

Read the annotations

White House taps former Air Force colonel for NASA Deputy Administrator role

Matthew Anderson gives remarks to introduce Jared Isaacman during the 2024 Space Force Association’s Spacepower Conference in Orlando, Florida. Image: Will Robinson-Smith/Spaceflight Now

Matthew Anderson, the chief growth officer for the Space Force Association (SFA), an independent nonprofit with the mission of “advocating for and supporting the U.S. Space Force,” was nominated on Tuesday by President Donald Trump for the NASA Deputy Administrator position.

In addition to his duties with the SFA, Anderson also works as the vice president and U.S. Space Force and Air Force client executive for CACI International Inc., an IT services and consulting firm with numerous government contracts across both the Department of Defense and other federal agencies.

“As a retired United States Air Force colonel and executive of the Space Force Association, Matt Anderson brings extensive knowledge of space operations, aeronautics expertise, and industry experience,” Acting NASA Administrator Janet Petro said in a statement. “If confirmed, he would join NASA’s leadership team at a time when partnerships and a sharpened focus on mission are essential to our continued success.

“Along with President Trump’s nominee to lead NASA, Jared Isaacman, he will strengthen collaboration across sectors and help NASA advance exploration, serve the American people, and deliver results for the benefit of all.”

If confirmed, Anderson would be the second consecutive veteran chosen for the role of deputy administrator. Pam Melroy, who held the position from June 2021 through the duration of President Joe Biden’s term, was a former astronaut and retired U.S. Air Force officer.

During his first term Trump nominated James Morhard who was serving as the deputy Sergeant at Arms for the U.S. Senate at the time. He was confirmed in October 2018 and served in the role until the end of Trump’s first stint in office.

Well acquainted

Anderson and Isaacman are also well acquainted. During the first two Spacepower Conferences hosted by SFA in December of 2023 and 2024, Anderson hosted panel sessions featuring Isaacman.

The first time in 2023, Isaacman was joined by Scott ‘Kidd’ Poteet, Isaacman’s crew mate from the Polaris Dawn mission, and Maj. Gen. Stephen Purdy, the acting acquisition executive for the Space Force, and the Polaris Dawn mission was still ahead of them.

From left to right: Matthew Anderson, Jared Isaacman, Scott ‘Kidd’ Poteet and Maj. Gen. Stephen Purdy. The four gathered for a panel discussion during the inaugural Space Force Association’s Spacepower Conference held in Orlando, Florida, in December 2023. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

The second time in 2024, it was just a week after Isaacman had been nominated by Trump to become the NASA administrator. Anderson presented Isaacman with the inaugural Advancing Human Presence in the Space Domain Award.

“Personally, I think Jared epitomizes the Weapon Officer motto of being humble, approachable and credible,” Anderson said in December 2024.

Isaacman’s nomination was voted favorably by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation earlier this month and is still awaiting a date for a full Senate vote. It’s unclear when Anderson will come before the committee for his confirmation hearing.

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 223 thousand, down from 241 thousand last week.

Innovative Strategies in Healthcare Management for Today’s Leaders

In today’s rapidly shifting healthcare landscape, effective management strategies are more crucial than ever. With technological advancements and the increasing complexity of patient care, understanding how to lead in healthcare management is vital. An MBA in healthcare management course like at Youngstown State University can provide essential skills and knowledge to navigate these changes and drive improvements in both patient outcomes and operational efficiency. However, beyond formal education, it’s critical to explore innovative strategies that redefine healthcare delivery in practice, incorporating creative solutions and adaptive approaches that meet the needs of a diverse patient population.

Adopting modern strategies in healthcare management enhances the patient experience and aligns with the growing demand for efficiency and cost-effectiveness in healthcare facilities. By embracing these strategies, healthcare leaders can meet current needs and anticipate future challenges with a forward-thinking approach. Utilizing technological innovations and data-driven decision-making are part of this new era, providing exciting opportunities for those ready to lead. These advances allow for a reactive and proactive system, addressing issues before they become systemic problems.

Key Takeaways:

  • Explore the importance of embracing innovative strategies in healthcare management.
  • Understand how technology is reshaping patient care and administrative processes.
  • Discover actionable steps to enhance healthcare delivery and efficiency.

Table of Contents:

  1. Introduction
  2. The Role of Technology in Healthcare Management
  3. Embracing Patient-Centric Care
  4. Enhancing Operational Efficiency
  5. Data-Driven Decision Making
  6. Collaborative Approaches in Healthcare
  7. Overcoming Challenges in Healthcare Management
  8. Future Trends in Healthcare

The Role of Technology in Healthcare Management

Technology plays a transformative role in healthcare management today. From telemedicine to electronic health records, technology aids in enhancing patient care and streamlining operations. These innovations are pivotal in bridging gaps in healthcare accessibility, especially for remote or underserved populations. HealthIT.gov states these advancements support better care coordination, reduce errors, and lower healthcare costs. By effectively utilizing these tools, healthcare managers can ensure that their facilities respond to patient needs more swiftly and accurately and increase the overall standard of care across various platforms.

The integration of artificial intelligence in diagnostics and treatment plans has paved the way for personalized medicine, allowing for more tailored patient care that addresses individuals’ specific health needs. Such technological transformations also facilitate more secure and accessible patient data management, ensuring that crucial information is readily available when needed yet protected against unauthorized access.

Embracing Patient-Centric Care

The move towards patient-centric care redefines the patient-provider relationship by placing the individual at the center of healthcare decisions. This approach prioritizes understanding, empathy, and communication, focusing on patients’ needs and preferences to improve satisfaction and outcomes. Implementing systems that prioritize patient feedback and encourage active participation in care plans is essential for healthcare providers looking to build trust and rapport with their patients.

As healthcare becomes increasingly patient-centered, the emphasis shifts from treating ailments to promoting overall well-being. This holistic approach enables better healthcare delivery and encourages preventive care, reducing the likelihood of chronic illnesses and minimizing healthcare costs over time. Creating an environment where patients feel heard and valued ensures better treatment plan adherence and fosters empowerment and engagement in their health journeys.

Enhancing Operational Efficiency

Boosting operational efficiency is a primary objective in healthcare management, driving efforts to optimize resource utilization and improve patient flow within healthcare facilities. Facilities can significantly reduce costs and improve service delivery by developing streamlined processes and adopting automation and artificial intelligence. These technological solutions assist in minimizing administrative burdens, allowing healthcare professionals to devote more time to patient care.

For instance, automated appointment scheduling and digital documentation reduce time spent on manual tasks, preventing bottlenecks in service delivery and enhancing the overall patient experience. Efficiency improvements also extend to inventory management, ensuring that medical supplies and medications are adequately stocked and readily available when needed, safeguarding against delays in treatment.

Data-Driven Decision Making

Informed decision-making in healthcare relies heavily on robust data analysis. Utilizing comprehensive data sets, managers can discern patterns and predict outcomes, exponentially improving the quality of care. Access to large, reliable data sources enables healthcare managers to forecast patient trends, resource needs, and financial metrics, facilitating strategic planning and effective resource allocation. The CDC’s data and statistics offer valuable insights for improving service efficiency and patient care strategies, highlighting the centrality of big data in healthcare innovation.

This data-driven approach enhances operational efficiency and aids in identifying potential risks and areas for improvement within healthcare systems, enabling managers to implement mitigation strategies proactively. By leveraging business intelligence tools and analytics, healthcare leaders can make informed, evidence-based decisions that align with organizational goals and improve patient outcomes.

Collaborative Approaches in Healthcare

The complexities of modern healthcare require collaborative approaches involving multidisciplinary teams. Collaborative models enhance communication and coordination among healthcare providers, leading to more holistic patient care and improved outcomes. In practice, this means breaking down silos within healthcare organizations, promoting teamwork, and encouraging open communication across all levels of staff.

Emphasizing team-based care allows for diverse perspectives and expertise, addressing a wide range of patient needs more comprehensively. By fostering a collaborative culture, healthcare organizations can improve the quality of care, reduce duplication of efforts, and optimize resource allocation while enhancing job satisfaction and reducing burnout among staff.

Overcoming Challenges in Healthcare Management

Despite advancements, healthcare management faces persistent challenges, including resource constraints, regulatory pressures, and evolving patient demands. Developing strategic solutions to these issues is crucial for maintaining the quality and accessibility of care. Continuous professional development and adaptive management strategies enable leaders to navigate these complexities successfully.

Emerging technologies and innovative practices provide unique opportunities to address longstanding challenges, such as reducing healthcare disparities and improving service delivery. By prioritizing training initiatives and fostering a culture of continuous improvement, healthcare managers can empower their teams to deliver exemplary care, even in the face of adversity.

Future Trends in Healthcare

Healthcare management will continue to evolve with emerging trends, such as personalized medicine, genomics advancements, and the Internet of Medical Things (IoMT). Staying informed and adaptive will be key to capitalizing on these advancements, ensuring organizations can deliver cutting-edge care. The future of healthcare promises challenges and numerous opportunities for those ready to innovate and lead, ultimately reshaping the industry for the better.

By embracing these trends and integrating them into their strategies, healthcare leaders can revolutionize patient care, improve operational efficiency, and contribute to the overall improvement of healthcare systems worldwide. The ongoing advancement in healthcare offers an exciting prospect for those poised to leverage innovation, ensuring they remain at the forefront of change.

In conclusion, healthcare management in the modern era demands a strategic integration of technology, patient-centered practices, and collaborative efforts. Those equipped with the right knowledge and skills will lead the way in transforming the healthcare industry.

Photo: Pavel Danilyuk via Pexels


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Trump's assault on the arts

Here is a crushingly long list of organizations and programs whose National Endowment for the Arts grants have been canceled, on the grounds that “funding is being allocated in a new direction in furtherance of the Administration's agenda." The affected groups are desperately seeking alternative funding to maintain their planned programming. They can also appeal the termination notice.

Medium is the new large

Medium is the new large

New model release from Mistral - this time closed source/proprietary. Mistral Medium claims strong benchmark scores similar to GPT-4o and Claude 3.7 Sonnet, but is priced at $0.40/million input and $2/million output - about the same price as GPT 4.1 Mini. For comparison, GPT-4o is $2.50/$10 and Claude 3.7 Sonnet is $3/$15.

The model is a vision LLM, accepting both images and text.

More interesting than the price is the deployment model. Mistral Medium may not be open weights but it is very much available for self-hosting:

Mistral Medium 3 can also be deployed on any cloud, including self-hosted environments of four GPUs and above.

Mistral's other announcement today is Le Chat Enterprise. This is a suite of tools that can integrate with your company's internal data and provide "agents" (these look similar to Claude Projects or OpenAI GPTs), again with the option to self-host.

Is there a new open weights model coming soon? This note tucked away at the bottom of the Mistral Medium 3 announcement seems to hint at that:

With the launches of Mistral Small in March and Mistral Medium today, it's no secret that we're working on something 'large' over the next few weeks. With even our medium-sized model being resoundingly better than flagship open source models such as Llama 4 Maverick, we're excited to 'open' up what's to come :)

I released llm-mistral 0.12 adding support for the new model.

Tags: llm-release, mistral, generative-ai, ai, llms, llm-pricing, llm, vision-llms

llm-prices.com

llm-prices.com

I've been maintaining a simple LLM pricing calculator since October last year. I finally decided to split it out to its own domain name (previously it was hosted at tools.simonwillison.net/llm-prices), running on Cloudflare Pages.

Screenshot of the llm-prices.com site - on the left is a calculator interface for entering number of input tokens, output tokens and price per million of each. On the right is a table of models and their prices, sorted cheapest first.

The site runs out of my simonw/llm-prices GitHub repository. I ported the history of the old llm-prices.html file using a vibe-coded bash script that I forgot to save anywhere.

I rarely use AI-generated imagery in my own projects, but for this one I found an excellent reason to use GPT-4o image outputs... to generate the favicon! I dropped a screenshot of the site into ChatGPT (o4-mini-high in this case) and asked for the following:

design a bunch of options for favicons for this site in a single image, white background

A 3x3 grid of simple icon concepts: green coins/circles, a green price tag with dollar sign, a calculator with dollar sign, a calculator with plus sign, a blue chat bubble with three dots, a green brain icon, the letters "AI" in dark gray, a document with finger pointing at it, and green horizontal bars of decreasing size.

I liked the top right one, so I cropped it into Pixelmator and made a 32x32 version. Here's what it looks like in my browser:

A cropped web browser showing the chosen favicon - it's a calculator with a dollar sign overlapping some of the keys.

I added a new feature just now: the state of the calculator is now reflected in the #fragment-hash URL of the page, which means you can link to your previous calculations.

I implemented that feature using the new gemini-2.5-pro-preview-05-06, since that model boasts improved front-end coding abilities. It did a pretty great job - here's how I prompted it:

llm -m gemini-2.5-pro-preview-05-06 -f https://www.llm-prices.com/ -s 'modify this code so that the state of the page is reflected in the fragmenth hash URL - I want to capture the values filling out the form fields and also the current sort order of the table. These should be respected when the page first loads too. Update them using replaceHistory, no need to enable the back button.'

Here's the transcript and the commit updating the tool, plus an example link showing the new feature in action (and calculating the cost for that Gemini 2.5 Pro prompt at 16.8224 cents, after fixing the calculation.)

Tags: vibe-coding, projects, llm-pricing, favicons, llms, cloudflare, text-to-image, ai, generative-ai, gemini, ai-assisted-programming

astral-sh/ty

astral-sh/ty

Astral have been working on this "extremely fast Python type checker and language server, written in Rust" quietly but in-the-open for a while now. Here's the first alpha public release - albeit not yet announced - as ty on PyPI (nice donated two-letter name!)

You can try it out via uvx like this - run the command in a folder full of Python code and see what comes back:

uvx ty check

I got zero errors for my recent, simple condense-json library and a ton of errors for my more mature sqlite-utils library - output here.

It really is fast:

cd /tmp
git clone https://github.com/simonw/sqlite-utils
cd sqlite-utils
time uvx ty check

Reports it running in around a tenth of a second (0.109 total wall time) using multiple CPU cores:

uvx ty check  0.18s user 0.07s system 228% cpu 0.109 total

Running time uvx mypy . in the same folder (both after first ensuring the underlying tools had been cached) took around 7x longer:

uvx mypy .  0.46s user 0.09s system 74% cpu 0.740 total

This isn't a fair comparison yet as ty still isn't feature complete in comparison to mypy.

Via Hacker News

Tags: uv, astral, rust, python, pypi, mypy

Tariffs and Poverty Around the World

I’ve returned from Europe to the United States. Miraculously, my flight to Newark landed on time. So this seems like a good day to write about … Bangladesh. I’ll explain shortly.

Oh, and no musical coda today. Too jet-lagged to find one.

First, a note on the current state of the trade war. Many people, including many small investors, still believe and/or hope either that Donald Trump will soon negotiate many trade deals or that he will claim he has, declare victory, and back off his massive tariff hike. They’re deluding themselves.

Consider what we’ve learned about Trump as the negative fallout from his tariffs has started to become obvious.

First, he’s invincibly ignorant. The collapse of imports from China has businesses terrified and warning both of soaring consumer prices and of looming shortages. But Trump says it’s all good:

We were losing hundreds of billions of dollars with China. Now we’re essentially not doing business with China. Therefore, we’re saving hundreds of billions of dollars. Very simple.

Hey, remember those empty shelves during Covid? Americans were doing great! Think of all the money they saved by not buying toilet paper, because there was none to be had. Very simple.

Second, when he’s in a hole, he just keeps digging. His talk about making Canada the 51st state had a decisive effect in Canada’s recent election, hugely bolstering anti-Trump forces. But yesterday, meeting with Prime Minster Mark Carney, who kept his office thanks to this backlash, Trump kept pushing the idea.

Carney remained polite — he is, after all, Canadian — but his facial expressions during the meeting were something to behold.

The best bet, then, is that the trade war will proceed, even intensify. There will be some winners, at least in terms of global influence, including China, which gains from America’s loss of credibility, and the European Union, which unlike Trump’s America can be trusted to honor its agreements. The United States will be a big loser, both politically and economically.

But the biggest losers will be poor countries that have become less poor largely thanks to exports and are about to see their hopes of progress dashed.

Possibly the most hated article I’ve ever written was a 1997 piece for Slate titled “In Praise of Cheap Labor,” which was mainly aimed at left-wing critics of globalization. I argued that much as the sight of low-paid workers producing cheap goods for rich countries may — and should — disturb us, labor-intensive exports are often poor countries’ best hope of progress.

This argument has only become stronger over time. The New York Times recently had a very good article on Bangladesh, which 50 years ago was the poster child for warnings about mass famine driven by overpopulation. Instead, the South Asian nation became, not a banana republic, but a pajama republic, one of the world’s leading clothing exporters. It’s still a poor country, with wages and working conditions that are appalling by advanced-country standards. But as the chart at the top of this post shows, Bangladesh is about four times as rich as it was in the 1980s, when its exports began rising.

But now the country faces the possibility of economic catastrophe, made in America. Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade plan would have imposed a 37 percent tariff on imports from Bangladesh. That plan is temporarily on hold, but it seems all too possible that it or something as bad or worse will come back.

OK, I know that most Americans don’t care about Bangladeshi living standards. They should, even on selfish grounds: condemning 170 million people to deeper poverty would be a threat to global stability. But here’s the thing: Throwing up barriers to Bangladeshi exports doesn’t involve a tradeoff, helping American workers at others’ expense. It’s pure loss, hurting both nations.

Why? Because making imported clothing more expensive here won’t create U.S. jobs. Apparel production, still largely carried out by people hunched over sewing machines, is just too labor-intensive to be economically feasible in the United States, no matter how high the tariffs.

Trump’s people don’t seem to get that. True, Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, famously claimed that tariffs could indeed create jobs in labor-intensive activities, although he didn’t use clothing as an example:

The armies of millions of people- well, remember, the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little- little screws to make iPhones, that kind of thing is going to come to America.

Um, no it isn’t, and shouldn’t.

Taxes on imported clothing will, however, raise Americans’ cost of living. The poor and the working class, who are more likely to buy inexpensive imported clothing, will be hurt worst. But hey, Trump says that children don’t need multiple dolls; why do their parents need multiple pairs of underwear?

Not incidentally, Greg Sargent looked into what it would actually take to manufacture dolls in the United States. Even if it could be done, it would produce only a handful of jobs — and the jobs would be terrible and pay badly.

The point is that Trump and his team have done something remarkable: They have started a trade war that is bad both for Americans and for countries that sell to us. But Trump is unlikely to change course. The economic punishment will continue until morale improves.

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 1% in April

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases 1% in April
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 0.9% in April to 205.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised March reading of 203.1. Over the month, commercial planning grew 3.3% while institutional planning fell 4.2%.

Despite an uptick in April, the bulk of the DMI’s growth was driven by a surge in data center planning, while momentum in other nonresidential sectors lagged behind,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Owners and developers are navigating heightened economic and policy uncertainty, which likely bogged down much of this month’s planning activity.”

A wave of data center projects entering planning played a key role in boosting commercial growth. Without data centers, commercial planning would have receded 2.3% in April and the entire DMI would have receded 3.0%. Office and hotel planning saw a sharp retreat this month, while warehouse and retail planning modestly ticked up. On the institutional side, planning momentum waned for education, healthcare, and government buildings. This was slightly offset by an uptick in recreational projects.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 205.1 in April, up from 220.9 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects.  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Links 5/7/25

Links for you. Science:

Scientists Find Measles Likely to Become Endemic in the US Over Next 20 Years (paper here)
‘Fighting to breathe’: Whooping cough surges as vaccination rate falters
Tapeworm in fox poop that will slowly destroy your organs is on the rise
This Sicko Caterpillar Wears the Bones of Its Victims
Millions of U.S. measles cases forecast over 25 years if shots decline
Scientists identify new ‘curiously isolated’ butterfly species

Other:

How Trump team turned a dinner invite into a crypto boon worth millions. Nearly two dozen crypto wallets acquired more than 100,000 $TRUMP meme coins, worth roughly $100 million, after its promoters said top buyers could join the president for dinner. (impeach him)
ARPA Is Delivering The ‘Abundance’ Ezra Klein Claims To Be Looking For
Trump’s Polls Are Plummeting as the Popularists Prove They Know Less than Nothing About Politics
Tariffs could mean the end of the line for the model railroad industry (Trump take model train)
Trump Doesn’t Want to Govern
‘We couldn’t live in that uncertainty’: A Boston nonprofit rejects a $250,000 federal grant so it can protect DEI
Trump Officials Weaken Rules Insulating Government Workers From Politics. A reinterpretation of the Hatch Act announced by the administration lets officials wear campaign paraphernalia like MAGA hats, and removes an independent board’s role in policing violations.
The fall of a violent D.C. gang that used federal loans to buy drugs in bulk
Fired, rehired, and fired again: Some federal workers find they’re suddenly uninsured
Spin scooters might leave D.C. amid legal battle
Trump cuts federal grants to plantation museum focused on reality of slavery
Government customer service shake-ups have the less tech-savvy on edge
Ranking the Movie Stars Who Actually Matter
China quietly exempts some U.S.-made semiconductors from tariffs
Even MAGA loyalists are getting sick of Trump’s lies
DeSantis lashes out at Fla. GOP as questions build over wife’s project
The Jeff Roe Alamo: Roe, the Republican operative who was essentially blacklisted by the Trump White House, has become an unexpected wrinkle in the looming Senate primary between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton—with potential political repercussions bigger than Texas, itself.
Youngkin asks GOP nominee to quit over claim he posted lewd photos of men
Only Kevin Roose’s Editors Despise Him More Than I Do
Trump won these independent voters. Now some are souring on his second term.
Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t Economics. They’re a Cultural Purge
From Book Bans to Canceled Lectures, the Naval Academy Is Bending to Trump (but cancel culture something something)
Tampa woman deported to Cuba gets separated from one-year-old and U.S. citizen husband
New Yorkers Are Paying Over $60 Million for Andrew Cuomo’s Legal Fights
Democrats Launch Inquiry Into Dismantling of Administration for Community Living
House oversight Democrat demands answers on gutting of CDC public records office
Elon Musk Pretends He’s Leaving The Job He Supposedly Doesn’t Have To Not Return To The Job He Supposedly Never Left

NASA scrambles to cut ISS activity due to budget issues

NASA is considering scaling back its activities on the International Space Station, according to multiple sources. The changes, which are being considered primarily due to shortfalls in the space station budget, include:

  • Reducing the size of the crew complement of Crew Dragon missions from four to three, starting with Crew-12 in February 2026
  • Extending the duration of space station missions from six to eight months
  • Canceling all upgrades to the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer science instrument attached to the station

The changes align with a desire that was reflected in the Trump administration's "skinny budget" proposal for NASA, released last Friday, which seeks to have the US space agency reduce its activities on the ISS.

"The Budget reduces the space station’s crew size and onboard research, preparing for a safe decommissioning of the station by 2030 and replacement by commercial space stations," stated the budget request for fiscal year 2026. "Crew and cargo flights to the station would be significantly reduced. The station’s reduced research capacity would be focused on efforts critical to the Moon and Mars exploration programs."

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FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Neel Kashkari voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
emphasis added

Thinkie: Set-Based Design

Pattern: You are choosing between 2 or more options & you don’t have the information needed to choose wisely yet.

Transformation: Implement some of them all until one is clearly superior.

I’m running into this right now with a personal project—a server-grade implementation of Smalltalk. Should I implement the virtual machine as a bytecode interpreter or a…

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Augmented Coding is Good For Exploration

This was my first live video & I was quite pleased with the turnout. I enjoyed the relaxed & frank style, but let me know what you think of it. I missed being able to illustrate live.

Get more from Kent Beck in the Substack app
Available for iOS and Android

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Wednesday assorted links

1. Interview with Galen Strawson, including about panpsychism.

2. Botched Dublin pipe bomb drone attack, neighborly feud edition.  Solve for the equilibrium.

3. Claims that spicy food is good for you.

4. Unparalleled misalignments.  Amazing what people will spend time on.

5. Why didn’t tariffs help the dollar?

6. Reforming naval shipbuilding.

7. The cardinals are watching Conclave to learn things.

8. OpenAI for countries.

9. Payment volume growth for stablecoins.

10. The role of China in the dispute.

The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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'Degenerate' or 'woke,' Paris museum exhibit shows what happens to art in the crosshairs of politics

As President Trump launches an offensive against 'woke' art, the Picasso Museum shows the kind of works that the Nazis singled out decades ago for mockery or destruction.

Vast to complete Haven-1 primary structure in July 2025, ahead of target May 2026 launch date

A model of the final version of Vast’s Haven-1 space station is shown with a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft docked. The model was on display at the 40th Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Colorado in April 2025. Image: Will Robinson-Smith/Spaceflight Now

Space habitation company, Vast, is now one year away from being able to stake its claim as the first commercial space station in history.

The company based in Long Beach, California, aims to launch its single-module Haven-1 space station on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in May 2026. To that end, it completed both its primary structure and qualification article and is moving into manufacturing the flight version.

“We’ve locked the design, we’ve released those drawings to our manufacturing CNC shop and we are welding it with a view to start integration and complete the flight primary structure by the end of July,” said Vast CEO Max Haot. “So, a lot more visible progress. We are just finishing out control room now. The team is there, everybody’s focused and locked in on it and we’re getting it done.”

Speaking with Spaceflight Now at the 40th Space Symposium in Colorado in April, Haot said the Vast team encompasses about 800 people at facilities across the United States. The company plans to grow by about 50 people each month and will have a roughly 1,000-person workforce in place by the time they’re ready to fly.

“It feels great. It feels easier every day than it was when we had less people, less facilities and, maybe more time, but still a lot to do,” Haot said.

Vast announced Haven-1 back in 2023 as it works to design and manufacture a space station capable of succeeding the International Space Station. NASA signed five-year, unfunded Space Act Agreement (SAA) with Vast on June 13, 2023, with the stated purpose of helping Vast’s “concept maturation and eventual implementation of [its] space station modules.”

“As part of the agency’s overall efforts, NASA is supporting the design and development of multiple commercial space stations through funded and unfunded agreements using a two-phase approach,” NASA said in a statement to Spaceflight Now.

“During the first phase, NASA is assisting its commercial space station partners in the completion of preliminary design review, or greater level of design maturity, on their concepts for future commercial station and  service offerings. The providers are on track to meet that goal with some already beginning testing and manufacturing of key systems and elements.”

An artist’s rendering of Vast’s Haven-1 space station in low Earth orbit. Illustration: Vast

While the timing has shifted somewhat over the years since, Vast’s SAA also laid out the company’s planned 22-milestone roadmap to give NASA an overview of where it intended to go throughout the development process, ultimately leading to the Haven-2 space station, which is designed to be capable of replacing the ISS by 2028:

  1. May 2023 – SAA Kickoff Meeting
  2. June 2023 – Attitude Navigation Hardware Development Test
  3. July 2023 – Sub-Scale Demo Module Primary Design Review (PDR)
  4. Nov. 2023 – Oxygen Pressurization Demonstration
  5. Jan. 2024 – Large Window Pressure Test
  6. March 2024 – Air Revitalization Characterization Test
  7. May 2024 – Sub-Scale Demo Module Critical Design Review (CDR)
  8. Nov. 2024 – Sub-Scale Solar Array Deployment Test
  9. Jan. 2025 – Sub-Scale Demo Module Test Readiness Review (TRR)
  10. Feb. 2025 – Hardware-in-the-Loop Mission Simulation
  11. Aug. 2025 – Sub-Scale Demo Module Delivery to Launch Site
  12. Oct. 2025 – Full-Scale Demo Module Preliminary Design Review
  13. Dec. 2025 – Sub-Scale Module Launch
  14. March 2026 – Sub-Scale Demo Module Crew Mission
  15. July 2026 – Sub-Scale Demo Module Spin Test 1 
  16. Oct. 2026 – Sub-Scale Demo Module Spin Test 2
  17. Jan. 2027 – Full-Scale Demo Module Critical Design Review (CDR)
  18. April 2027 – Full-Scale Solar Array Deployment Test
  19. July 2027 – Full-Scale Launch Separation System Test
  20. Oct. 2027 – Full-Scale Pressure Hull Proof Test
  21. March 2028 – Full-Scale Demo Module Test Readiness Review
  22. April 2028 – Full-Scale Hardware-in-the-Loop Mission Simulation

Back in February, Vast announced the completion of the Haven-1 primary structure qualification testing out at their facilities in Mojave, California. Through the experience of getting up to and through that testing, they made the determination that a launch in August 2025 wasn’t feasible and shifted the planned launch date to no earlier than May 2026.

A Vast spokesperson confirmed on April 28, 2025, that both the Oxygen Pressurization Demonstration and Large Window Pressure Test milestones were successfully completed and said others, like the Air Revitalization Characterization Test, are also in the books.

“We’re progressing on track aligned with our scheduled launch of Haven-1 in May 2026. We will complete the manufacturing and testing of the flight primary structure in July 2025 and later in the summer, we’ll launch Haven Demo, an in-orbit testbed for critical space station technologies and qualified hardware and software,” the Vast spokesperson said.

“From July-December 2025, we’ll complete the vehicle integration and checkout, including subsystem manufacturing and testing. Then the environmental test campaign (acoustics, vibration, EMI, TVAC) will take place at NASA’s Glenn Research Center at the Neil Armstrong Test Facility from January-March 2026 before the final step of pre-launch operations and planning.”

EMI is shorthand for EMI/EMC or Electromagnetic Interference/Electromagnetic Compatibility testing, which helps ensure the reliability of electronic systems within a spacecraft. TVAC is an abbreviation for thermal vacuum testing, which involves exposing a spacecraft to a simulated space environment in a controlled chamber.

In a statement to Spaceflight Now, NASA also clarified its role in the agreement, stating that it’s “providing support on request” and using “minimal government resources” to do so, similar to the other SAA recipients.

The agency also said that the 22 milestones laid out by Vast in 2023 are more like guidelines than hard and fast rules. Also, since no money was exchanged for this agreement, NASA said, “Milestones are unfunded and there is no requirement for completion.”

“While the milestones are intended to provide a measure of progress, they are not a partner responsibility under the agreement,” NASA said.

Thermal Vacuum Chamber (TVAC) inside NASA’s Glenn Research Center at Neil Armstrong Test Facility in Sandusky, Ohio. The photo is a wide-angle view into the test chamber of the Space Environments Complex (SEC). Image: NASA

Haot said before the Haven-1 environmental test campaign begins, Vast will continue testing each piece and sub-assembly of their space station at their own facilities. But once the vehicle is fully integrated and is a single, 14-ton structure, he said they really needed NASA on board for the next phase, which centers on the vibration test and a thermal vacuum test.

For that work, they were able to reach a contract agreement with NASA to send the Haven-1 flight article to NASA’s Glenn Research Center at the Neil Armstrong Test Facility in Sandusky, Ohio. That test campaign will begin in early 2026.

“There’s basically no other facility in the world that could test such a big object as Haven-1. So firstly, it’s a relief that we have the slot. We booked it, we signed a contract because there’s not any other place we can do it,” Haot said. “And also, the contract was actually sponsored, in some ways, supported by NASA, so that we actually have priority over other programs.”

The next big announcement from Vast will be naming the crew who will be the first to fly onboard Haven-1. Haot said to expect that news “at some point soon.”

“Our goal is to secure it with mostly space agencies, international space agencies because Haven-1 is designed to be a proof point for NASA that we can work with them. So, that’s our ideal customer,” Haot said. “We are in negotiations with multiple international space agencies and I can’t wait to eventually reveal who the crew is.”

Haot said they are also getting interest from private individuals, but stressed that those who come on board need to be science focused, not tourists.

“None of the people that we talk to want to be tourists. They want to work with the payloads in the Haven-1 lab facility we have,” Haot said.

Form meets function

The Haven-1 spacecraft has a 45-meter-cubed volume and is designed to support up to four crew members for missions of an average of two-weeks in length.

It consists of four crew quarters for sleeping, several mid-deck lockers for science modules, a common area with a deployable table and multiple crew interfaces.

An artist’s rendering of the cross-section of Vast’s Haven-1 space station. Graphic: Vast

Those who see it may conjure up memories of an Apple Store and there’s a good reason for that. The combination of replica wood panels and a creamy-white color scheme come, in part, from the mind of Peter Russell-Clarke, a former Apple designer who helped influence the layout of the tech giant’s headquarters, stores and the design of products like the Apple Watch, iPhones and Mac computers.

“We’re not building a luxury destination. We’re building a laboratory in space, but it should feel good. It should great to sleep in it. You should feel rested. It should be easy to communicate,” Haot said. “That means creating an environment that is comfortable to the human, to enhance the key mission objective.”

Andrew Feustel, Vast’s Lead Astronaut who goes by Drew, told Spaceflight Now that the idea was to bring a sense of Earth onto the Haven-1 in order to make it as comfortable as possible. He said when crafting the wood-like walls, they began with maple wood slats and then moved to a veneer finish on a honeycomb background.

“The idea is that you create natural surfaces to give you that connection back to Earth,” Feustel said. “One of the things that many astronauts talk about is that separation of having six people or eight people or one person in space separated from the seven billion people down on the planet and that does create a psychological separation from Earth.

“So, having a spacecraft that reconnects you makes it easier to psychologically stay connected to the people you know and love and everything you know about life, which is down there on that planet.”

Crew members will also be able to look down on the planet Earth through the 1.1 m (3.6 ft) domed window. Vast recently published a video of the window undergoing strength testing. Each so-called “kick test” simulated “hundreds of pounds of force, mimicking accidental bumps from astronauts inside the station.

“It’s really important to have a window as big as we could make it,” Feustel said. “It’s gone through a few iterations, but we’ve sort of landed on this design and this size and we think it’s really effective for doing just that: having those views of Earth that are really important and being able to take a few photos as well.”

Bringing along partners

Vast is jockeying to become the successor to the International Space Station along with other competitors. To that end, it hopes to cement its place in the history of low Earth orbit by becoming the first, commercial space station with the launch of Haven-1.

If all goes well, Vast aims to not only have its first station in orbit by next May, but also to welcome a four-person crew no earlier than late June 2026. Part of making that a reality is a partnership between the company and SpaceX.

An artist’s rendering of a SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft docking with Vast’s Haven-1 space station. Illustration: Vast

The connection between the two companies has been long established. SpaceX alumni make up seven members of Vast’s leadership team and nine members of its engineering leadership. Four out of seven members of Vast’s group of advisors also have past experience at SpaceX.

Haot said when Vast began pursuing the Haven-1 program in 2023, creating a formal relationship with SpaceX was high on their to-do list.

“The first thing we did is we went to SpaceX. We don’t believe that you should design a space station without the visiting vehicle, in this case Dragon, working with us very collaboratively,” Haot said. “It’s actually an integrated system, from a thermal point of view, from a life support point of view, they have to dock together, we have to keep the attitude. There’s a lot of engineering detail and complexity.

“You don’t want to design your space station and then six months before you launch it, call the Dragon team to make sure they’re ok.”

Part of that synergy was having SpaceX sell its docking adapter to Vast and to also conduct their own testing on Dragon at SpaceX’s facilities, also in Hawthorne, California. Haot said soon SpaceX will send Vast the flight-ready, passive docking adaptor, which will be integrated onto the flight article Haven-1.

“They are the experts, right? They are doing it (docking) to the ISS. They know, obviously, the standard. They have built the technology to do it. It’s called ‘Dragon Eye,’” Haot said. “And they basically looked at Haven-1 and they said, ‘Hey, can you keep the attitude, you know, the pointing to this tolerance?’ We said, ‘We can.’”

To support the docking process, SpaceX will add reflectors to Haven-1 in addition to the docking adapter.

Beyond its work with SpaceX, Vast is also aligning itself with several entities that have experience with the International Space Station. It first announced partnerships with Florida—based Redwire Space and European company, Yuri, back in August 2024.

Vast CEO Max Haot, Vast Lead Astronaut Andrew Feustel, Exobiosphere CEO Kyle Acierno, Interstellar Lab CEO Barbara Belvisi, and JAMSS President Teru Aruga (from left to right), standing inside the Haven-1 Experience. Image: Vast

Redwire is contributing its Advanced Space Equipment Processor 4 (ADSETP4), which can host up to four pharmaceutical processing cassettes called Pharmaceutical In-space Laboratory – Bio-crystal Optimization Xperiments (PIL-BOXs). Meanwhile, Yuri is adding its ScienceTaxi incubator with a centrifuge, which allows for adjustments under different gravity conditions for up to 38 experiment units called “ScienceShells.”

During the 40th Space Symposium in early April, Vast announced three more customers, JAMSS, Interstellar Lab and Exobiosphere, which will occupy three more of the 10 total mid-deck lockers, leaving five more remaining that don’t have announced occupants.

Haot said they sought customers who are involved with “important research and science” that they believe will be “good for Vast and good for the customers that will be flying on Vast.”

“It’s also the credibility of the company. Our strategy is to work with as many people that have existing heritage on the ISS,” Haot said. “And then, it’s a negotiation and agreeing to the pricing and so on.”

Vast has also agreements for the next stage in the Haven program, Haven-2. It signed an agreement with The Exploration Company to use its reusable Nyx space capsule for cargo missions and a memorandum of understanding with the European Space Agency (ESA) to explore future crew and cargo operations onboard the Haven-2.

Haven-2 in work

The effort being put into Haven-1, and the uncrewed Haven Demo satellite before it, are designed to pave the way for the Haven-2 space station. The modules of that future station will be nearly five-meters longer than that of Haven-1 and feature two windows and two docking ports.

While the Haven-1 is able to be launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, the Haven-2 modules will require a Falcon Heavy using an extended payload fairing. The Haven-2 will also be capable of receiving cargo missions and the ability to host 720 days worth of on-board crew consumables, compared to 160 days with Haven-1.

The plan is to launch the first of the Haven-2 modules in 2028 and continue launching the next three modules at a rate of about one every six months. Following the launch of the Haven Core module in 2030, the final version of the Haven-2 space station would be deployed on orbit by 2032.

An artist’s rendering of Vast’s Haven-2 space station in its full configuration. Illustration: Vast

That 2032 version of Haven-2 would have a crew volume of 510 cubic meters. On its website, Vast shows opens for several roles connected to Haven-2, including one labeled “Mission Manager, Crew.

That person would be designated to “Manage entire crew mission including onboarding, training, launch, on-orbit experience to low earth orbital destinations, being personally responsible for end-to-end mission success (contract award through return and rehabilitation).” That individual would also need to “Act as the technical subject matter expert for crewmember accommodations throughout a mission to Haven-1.”

NASA expects to issue a Draft Request for Proposal (RFP) by the end of the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 (Q3 FY25) and a final RFP by the end of Q4 FY25. 

ClearSpace completes second phase of UK debris-removal mission

PUAKO, Hawaii — ClearSpace completed the second phase of the UK Space Agency’s Active Debris Removal (ADR) mission, by testing and refining technology to remove satellites from low-Earth orbit. In […]

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House Democrats seek information from NASA and the Pentagon on Musk conflicts of interest and SpaceX foreign investment

Self-proclaimed "First Buddy" Elon Musk gestures while discussing the sixth Starship test launch with President-elect Donald Trump at Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas. To the right of Trump is Gen. Chance Saltzman, Chief of space operations for the U.S. Space Force.

Democratic leaders of two House committee are asking NASA and the Defense Department to investigate claims that SpaceX takes investment from Chinese sources as well as broader conflict-of-interest concerns.

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Space: the new frontier for transatlantic cooperation

Hera encapsulation

Despite existing cooperation, fragmented efforts between the United States and the European Union are limiting space security and sustainability. A stronger, unified approach is needed to tackle these growing challenges, […]

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Resilience lunar lander enters orbit around the moon

ispace Resilience lander

Japanese company ispace says its second lunar lander in now in orbit around the moon ahead of a landing attempt in early June.

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Why NASA should apply the CLPS mindset to low-cost science missions, not just landers

Intuitive Machines' Athena lunar lander, sitting on its side, after experiencing problems landing near the moon’s south pole March 6. Credit: Intuitive Machines

NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) are bringing us closer than we’ve been in decades to regular lunar exploration and scientific discovery. As a scientist, I admire what these companies […]

The post Why NASA should apply the CLPS mindset to low-cost science missions, not just landers appeared first on SpaceNews.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April

A brief excerpt:
This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in April. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in April were mostly for contracts signed in February and March when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.84% and 6.65%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was a decrease from the average rate for homes that closed in March. Any negative economic impacts from policy mostly happened in April, and that will probably not impact existing home sales until the May or June reports.
...
Closed Existing Home SalesIn April, sales in these markets were down 0.9% YoY. Last month, in March, these same markets were down 1.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that most of these early reporting markets have shown stronger year-over-year sales than most other markets for the last several months.

Important: There were the same number of working days in April 2025 (22) as in April 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be close to the change in the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
Many more local markets to come!
There is much more in the article.

Betting markets in everything

Polymarket, on the chances of a nuclear weapon being used in 2025.  Currently at 17.  Here is further analysis from o3.

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Residents of Flint Have Not Been Made Whole

This letter to the editor is part of “Flint Unfiltered: Stories from An American Water Crisis,” a project that we have partnered on with the School of Journalism at Northeastern University to examine one of the country’s worst public health crises – over a decade later. Please visit the project’s website HERE.

“We Will Not Be Silent”

The water crisis was an act of human negligence in an urban community where failed leadership creates man-made disasters. The Emergency Act is a ploy for taking over Black communities by suppressing local government while selling city assets under the guise of budget cuts. Flint has suffered for 11 years since switching over to the Flint River, which is not an ideal source for drinking water but a waste disposal site for untreated refuse from auto industries to meat packing plants, lumber, and paper mills. The river received raw sewage from the city’s waste treatment plant and toxins from landfills. The Mayor and City Council decided, with the embattled Governor Rick Snyder, to subject residents to a human health crisis. The effects of this epidemic are felt a decade after with children experiencing learning disabilities, homeowners left with rising costs due to the burden of replacing house lines, and many people dying from Legionnaires’ disease. 

The residents of Flint have not been made whole, and nobody has been held accountable. The case has been mishandled, and the Attorney General made several errors, ultimately leading to a case dismissal. The initial $626 million Flint water crisis settlement was approved in November 2021.  If it were not for the activists who stood on the frontlines addressing structural racism and the poisoning of our community, the world would not have known about the water crisis in Flint. The people who stayed and sacrificed their lives for future generations to live in a robust community, not plagued by failed leadership. Flint is more than known for bad water, but it’s a beacon of light when the residents come together and do not accept political disenfranchisement. We are not victims, but victors, and we still are advocating for righteousness. 

Let this unfortunate situation in Flint serve as a reminder to those who sought to capitalize on urban communities by pushing discriminatory practices, allowing special interest groups to dictate local governments, and people who do not have the best interests of the people they serve. We will not be silent. We are dedicated to making a difference. I greatly appreciate those who stand with us during this transitional period. 

Thank you,

DeWaun E. Robinson
Chief Executive Officer
Artistic Visions Enterprise 


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

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Minimum Viable Curiousity

I was in the city a few weeks ago and exclusively used Waymo for the entire trip. My biggest complaint? I needed to walk four minutes to a pick-up spot. Other than that, the car just showed up, traversed San Francisco streets easily, and the cost was reasonable1. Sitting in the back seat watching the robot drive through San Francisco, I realized now I was at ease with the machine taking me hither and fro. I’ve been on more than 20 rides, and I think robots can drive a car in a crowded city.

I am dissatisfied when I ask ChatGPT or Claude.ai to write something for me. The writing has no life, no flair. It’s repeating patterns it’s been trained on, and the result is a pretty good imitation, but the voice is tinny and robotic. Anyone exploring AI has a similar experience; they test the robots on topics where they are the expert and quickly find it’s not creative, but impressively derivative. No art, no flair.

The point: there is a whole class of tasks where, job loss aside1, I am fine with robots doing the job with absolutely no flair. I need the job done safely, efficiently, and reliably. Every time. I require no flair for a car taking me from Point A to Point B. I want no pomp and circumstance. The perfect ride is one I forget immediately because nothing interesting happens.

The Trap

Problem is, I like driving. Her name is Audrey. She’s a black Porsche 718, and I love driving her. We love zipping around the small mountain roads of the Santa Cruz Mountains. I like the feel of her wheels on the road, I like how she growls when we decide to go fast. It’s a visceral experience full of colors, sights, and sounds.

In a hypothetical future world where all I ever knew was sitting in the back of a robot car, I would not appreciate the work involved because I’d never had the opportunity to learn to drive. This might be fine for many humans on the planet, but not for me. I learned how to drive on Highway 17, a scary mountain freeway that required me to become a competent driver as quickly as possible. I remember those lessons, they made me… me.

I liked learning to drive.

Better yet, I like learning. It gives me appreciation of the craft.

I recently received a job description from a friend. As I started to read it, here’s the vent that went through my head:

  • “Robots, really?”
  • “Well, Rands, not everyone is a writing zealot like you. Many humans are intimidated by writing, so chill. They completed the necessary task.”
  • “Yeah, but… if they don’t learn how to write well, isn’t that a problem?”

I looked at him when done and said, “ChatGPT?”

“Is it that obvious?”

This is the problem. And it’s large. For every task we’re asking the robots to perform, there was an essential initial step where the robots were trained on data generated by hard-working humans so the robots could perform the task. It’s called machine learning. They need to learn from the hard work of our learning, except it’s not learning, it’s mimicking and repeating patterns. While it’s a joy to sit in the back of Waymo and appreciate the robot doing an effective job, it’s a trap and a familiar one.

Minimum Viable Friendship

Remember back when you first got on Facebook or your first social network. A revelation, right? Everyone is here! Suddenly, you connected with friends from high school, finding long-lost friends, and it all felt very social. Your brain told you you’d found all these valuable friends, but this is a minimum viable friendship.

What does it mean to have a friend? To have a friendship? Your definition differs from mine, but off the top of my head, it includes:

Shared and repeated in-person experiences and achievements that built familiarity and eventually trust. The magnitude and consistency of these shared experiences and stories become embedded in your brain, connecting you. Their presence in your mind moves you, often randomly, to reach out and remind all involved, “Hello. Hi. Remember. We are friends.”

Facebook or other social network connections are humans that you know, but for many, we do the minimum work to build and maintain the relationship. Brief interactions tickle the “I’m being social” bit of your brain, but you aren’t. You’re sitting in your slippers in your Cave doing the minimum viable work, telling yourself you’re being social. These services are not built to help you be social; they are designed to extract data, which ironically is being used to train the robots to help you be less social.

Maintaining any relationship is work, and like all complex skills, you start with no skill. Via repeated failures and successes, you learn the work necessary to build healthy personal and working relationships. You learn over and over again, and the act of doing work is the lesson.

Are you wondering why we’re so anxious? It’s because we’ve never been connected with more humans less. We’re forgetting about the important work of investment in relationships, or we’ve never learned how to create, develop, and maintain relationships because we think those vacuous relationships we’ve made on the Internet are substantive relationships. They are not2. I believe building relationships takes time, patience, and proximity. You learn how to friendship by doing the hard work.

Do The Work

I’ve made a career being a human terrified by becoming irrelevant long before AI showed up to drive my car. You bet I am poking every bit of AI that I can. Daily. I am trying to figure out what it can and can’t do, and this article aside, I am optimistic, just like I’ve been for the last three decades, that revolutionary innovations will knock your socks off in the next few years. It’s still early days for AI. Really.

However, I am deeply suspicious of AI, especially after watching decades of social networks monetize our attention while teaching us to ignore facts and truth, minimizing our desire to understand. Many humans don’t check their facts; they believe what they read in the feed. Most humans believe the manufactured reality is designed to get them to believe someone else’s agenda. The convenience of these services and tools has made us lazy and, worse, not curious.

AI does an incredible job of confidently sounding like it knows what it’s talking about, so it’s easy to imagine what it will do in the hands of those who want to manipulate you. AI does a shockingly good job at programming and other structured tasks we thought were the domain of hardworking engineers, but AI is not curious. AI is trained, but it does not learn.

My primary fear is that, like Facebook before it, those humans empowered to build, write, and create with AI stop with the slop because the act provides an unearned sense of accomplishment. The work is the trying, trying again, failing, finding inspiration in the lessons of the failure, and going one more time. Only to fail once more. Being curious. “Why am I failing?” is required reflection. You ask yourself, you ask your friends, and then sometimes a lightning bolt strikes and you realize, “This is the lesson. I understand now. I know how to improve.”

The value of creation is a function of the effort. Creation without effort is meaningless.

Waymo Paradox

I’ve been working on the ending of this article for a few months because I can’t tell if we’re screwed or blessed. I’m not excited by a world where humans aren’t required to go through trials that require them to learn.

I’ve walked close friends through the arc of this piece to get their gut read, and most have a similar initial reaction. They’re concerned about AI running wild and doing unspeakable things to humanity. Yeah, I saw Terminator, too. This opinion has a valid recency bias, but I also think this is a repeat of a core human reaction — we fear the unknown. Change is scary.

I think we’re screwed, not because of the power and potential of the tools. It starts with the greed of humans and how their machinations (and success) prey on the ignorant. We’re screwed because these nefarious humans were already wildly successful before AI matured and now we’ve given them even better tools to manufacture hate that leads to helplessness. But I have a cure for that helplessness. Curiousity.

I think we’re blessed. We live at a time when the tools we build can empower those who want to create. The barriers to creating have never been lower; all you need is a mindset. Curiousity. How does it work? Where did you come from? What does this mean? What rules does it follow? How does it fail? Who benefits most from this existing? Who benefits least? Why does it feel like magic? What is magic, anyway? It’s an endless set of situationally dependent questions requiring dedicated focus and infectious curiosity.

When faced with change or an aggressive unknown, I take a deep breath, count to four, pace my feet firmly on the ground, and ask, “Do I really understand what is going on here? Really?” I start with curiosity because curiosity informs action. Action creates consequence, and when consequence shows up, you start learning.

Here’s the thing. We are equally screwed and blessed. These contradictory states exist at the same time. It’s a paradox, a confusing, in-progress, contradictory mess. It’s a state I understand because I am a human who continues to learn and I’m curious how it’s going to turn out.


  1. Yes, I know humans will lose their jobs because of this innovation. That’s a different important article. 
  2. Hey, I know many humans have substantive relationships online. My social circle exploded in the late 80s when I discovered the BBS system in the Bay Area, but the explosion, the satisfaction, and the learning occurred when I began to hang with these now real humans in person. 

China missing facts of the day

Not long ago, anyone could comb through a wide range of official data from China. Then it started to disappear.

Land sales measures, foreign investment data and unemployment indicators have gone dark in recent years. Data on cremations and a business confidence index have been cut off. Even official soy sauce production reports are gone.

In all, Chinese officials have stopped publishing hundreds of data points once used by researchers and investors, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.

In most cases, Chinese authorities haven’t given any reason for ending or withholding data. But the missing numbers have come as the world’s second biggest economy has stumbled under the weight of excessive debt, a crumbling real-estate market and other troubles—spurring heavy-handed efforts by authorities to control the narrative.

Here is more from the WSJ, “model this.”  Via B.

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Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in April; Up 4.9% Year-over-year

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in April
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were much higher in April compared to March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) increased to 208.2, an increase of 4.9% from a year ago and also higher than March levels by 2.7%. This is the highest reading for the index since October 2023. The seasonal adjustment dampened the rise seen in the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values increased sharply on the back of the tariff announcement in early April. The non-adjusted price in April increased by 3.3% compared to March, moving the unadjusted average price up 4.3% year over year.
emphasis added
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in April (seasonally adjusted) and were up 4.9% YoY.

The tariffs are likely making some used cars more attractive.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications increased 11.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 2, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 11.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 11 percent from the previous week and was 51 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“The economic news last week included a negative reading for first-quarter GDP growth and further signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector, mixed with a solid employment report for April. The net impact on mortgage rates was mostly downward but just back to levels from early April. The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.84 percent,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Conventional purchase application volume increased 13 percent and was up 9 percent from year-ago levels, a surprisingly strong move given lingering economic uncertainty. Borrowers of conventional loans tend to have larger loan sizes and more apt to be move-up buyers. Government purchase loans were also up 6 percent for the week, led by a 9 percent growth in FHA purchase applications.”

Added Fratantoni, “With rates moving lower, refinance volume increased 11 percent, led by VA refinance applications, which were up 26 percent.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.84 percent from 6.89 percent, with points increasing to 0.68 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
emphasis added
Mortgage Purchase Index Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 13% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October 2023 and is 8% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

Mortgage Refinance Index
The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased but remained very low.

Amazon, Finally, Now Has a ‘Get Book’ Button in Its iOS Kindle App

Andrew Liszewski, The Verge:

Contrary to prior limitations, there is now a prominent orange “Get book” button on Kindle app’s book listings. [...]

Before today’s updates, buying books wasn’t a feature you’d find in the Kindle mobile app following app store rule changes Apple implemented in 2011 that required developers to remove links or buttons leading to alternate ways to make purchases. You could search for books that offered samples for download, add them to a shopping list, and read titles you already own, but you couldn’t actually buy titles through the Kindle or Amazon app, or even see their prices.

I’d love to just crack a joke here about Amazon, maybe, possibly, finally getting a chance to gain a bit of market share in the e-book market. I’d love to just crack that joke and move on.

But really, this whole situation with e-books has been the best argument against Apple’s App Store policies for at least the last 15 years. Physical printed books are typically sold under a wholesale model. The publishers sells the book to a bookseller for a wholesale price (say, perhaps, half the suggested retail price) and the bookseller is then free to charge whatever actual retail price they want to customers. But e-books are sold under the agency model: the publisher sets the retail price, and the bookseller keeps 30 percent. But Apple’s App Store policies therefore make it impossible for a third-party bookseller to sell e-books and make even a penny of profit. Let’s say there’s an e-book that the publisher decides will sell to customers for $10. When Amazon sells the Kindle edition of that book, the publisher gets $7, and Amazon keeps $3. But if the Kindle iOS app allowed purchases of books through IAP, Apple would take its 30 percent first. Apple would get $3, Amazon would still owe the publisher $7, and there’d be nothing left over — not a cent — for Amazon itself. Effectively they’d lose a bit of money on each sale, and it would be impossible to make even a penny of profit.

You can’t even fix this by raising prices. Double the retail price to $20 and then Apple would take $6, and the publisher would be owed $14. Still not a cent left for Amazon. The App Store model is just fundamentally incompatible with the agency model.

What Apple should have done, 15 years ago, is look at this situation and decide “Well, we have to allow something else. Kindle users should be able to buy books on iOS devices from the Kindle app.” And the solution is incredibly obvious: let apps send users out of the app to the web to make purchases, without Apple taking a cent. That’s what’s happening now, because of Judge Yvonne Gonzales Rogers’s injunction, but it should have been something Apple permitted 15 years ago because it’s so obviously fair and just. I’ve argued consistently that it’s fine for Apple to insist that in-app purchases for digital content must use Apple’s payment system. But I’ve also argued consistently that Apple should allow from-app purchases to freely go to the web. Tap a button or link, leave the app and go to the web, and make the purchases there. Then go back to the app and the app can sync up what you just purchased. Done. Simple.

Apple’s obstinance on this has created nothing but friction, confusion, and hassle for users for 15 years. It makes no sense for anyone. Until last week, not only were third-party app forbidden from including buttons/links to send users to the web to buy book, they were forbidden from even informing users that they needed to go to the web to buy books. Apple’s rules included a rule that forbade apps from explaining the rules to the users.

I can see, at some level, where executives at Apple are like, “Fuck Amazon. There’s no way for us to even make an Apple Books app for Kindles, let alone sell our own e-books on their devices, so they can go fuck themselves. Why should we let them sell e-books on our devices?” That’s all true. There are no third-party apps on Kindles. There are third-party apps on iPhones and iPads. But at some point Apple should have just considered their own users. If their users are using the Kindle app looking to buy Kindle e-books on iOS devices, Apple should have just let it happen on the web — and used that as motivation to make Apple Books better so that maybe more users would prefer it to the Kindle ecosystem. What’s the word? Oh yeah ... competed.

 ★ 

Florida Republican Congresswoman Kat Cammack Introduces ‘App Store Freedom Act’ to Mandate Third-Party App Stores on iOS and Android

Emma Roth, reporting for The Verge:

Representative Kat Cammack (R-FL) introduced a bill Tuesday that would require “large app store operators” like Apple to let users install third-party app stores and set them as their default. The bill, called the App Store Freedom Act, aims to “promote competition and protect consumers and developers in the mobile app marketplace,” according to a press release on Tuesday. [...]

It would also require Apple and Google to offer developers “equal access to interfaces, features, and development tools without cost or discrimination,” as well as allow users to remove or hide pre-installed apps. Violations of the bill would result in penalties from the Federal Trade Commission, along with an additional civil penalty of up to $1 million for each violation.

This is a stunt from the Epic/Spotify-backed Coalition for App Fairness that we’ll probably never hear about again.

 ★ 

Meteor

Abstract image of a woman’s face with vivid swirls of blue, green, red and yellow on a black background.

Through stunning animation, an Iranian expat pays tribute to the grief and defiance of women and the queer community back home

- by Aeon Video

Watch at Aeon

International Workshop on Computational Social Choice (COMSOC 2025): call for papers

 Peter Biro writes:

The submission deadline for the 10th International Workshop on Computational Social Choice (COMSOC 2025) has been extended to May 11, 2025, 23:59 AoE (Anywhere on Earth).

Workshop site: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.ac.tuwien.ac.at/comsoc2025__;!!OToaGQ!qOuZyXX6FOj6yqpijlPhOyx3jQmvUeFMtbBjjElR2UAUGTlYIOiXd59Pove0oPuWY2bOTPrmnM2YBJrh3vKj9dRw$


Submission portal: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://cmt3.research.microsoft.com/COMSOC2025__;!!OToaGQ!qOuZyXX6FOj6yqpijlPhOyx3jQmvUeFMtbBjjElR2UAUGTlYIOiXd59Pove0oPuWY2bOTPrmnM2YBJrh3hf3ZXwr$

**Non-archival.** In line with COMSOC tradition, the workshop has no formal proceedings; work that is under review or already published elsewhere is therefore welcome, provided it falls within the scope outlined in the original call for papers below.

#########

"COMSOC 2025 is the 10th workshop in the interdisciplinary workshop series on Computational Social Choice. It will take place at the TU Wien, Vienna, Austria, from 17-19 September 2025."



UK estimate of the day

A majority of Britons may now consider themselves neurodivergent, meaning they have a condition such as autism, dyslexia or dyspraxia, according to a leading psychologist.

Francesca Happé, professor of cognitive neuroscience at the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience at King’s College London, said reduced stigma around these conditions had led more people both to seek medical diagnoses and to self-diagnose.

She said: “There’s a lot more tolerance, which is good — particularly among my children’s generation, who are late teens and early adults, where people are very happy to say ‘I’m dyslexic’, ‘I’m ADHD [attention deficit hyperactivity disorder]’.”

Here is more from the (gated) Times of London.  Via Glenn.

The post UK estimate of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Are recent cohorts in worse health?

From the abstract:

Our sample is individuals in the Health and Retirement Study who are aged 51 to 54 at baseline and are followed for up to two decades. We find that limitations in most domains have increased for younger cohorts, especially pain and cognitive impairment. People are more impaired in their 50s, where such impairment used to occur in one’s 60s. However, this appears to be a speeding up of impairment more than a long-term increase. Among people in their late 60s, health for later cohorts is similar to health for earlier cohorts. To evaluate the implications of these trends, we simulate the work capacity of adults just before reaching age 65 based on the health status of people at this age and the relationship between health and the labor force outcomes of younger people. Overall health among those age 62 to 64 remains high, despite impairment striking at younger ages. However, among people without high school degrees, less than half are predicted to have the capacity to work full time by age 62 to 64, and over a quarter are predicted to be receiving SSDI.

That is from a new NBER working paper by David M. Cutler, Ellen Meara, and Susan Stewart.

The post Are recent cohorts in worse health? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Wednesday: FOMC Meeting

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to to the Fed funds rate is expected at this meeting.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

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